Senator Thune announces we're getting a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut, plus rushed Keystone XL approval:
Two months. Two months?! How the heck am I and millions of other job doers supposed to drive an economic recovery with this kind of tax uncertainty from Congress? If I don't know today what my take-home pay is going to be in March, then clearly there's no reason for me to keep doing my job right now.
So we are screwing with the future stability of Social Security to make our politicians feel better about themselves. The good news is that we avoided a gov't shutdown: a crisis that was created by a Congress that is too lazy to do their job and pass a budget. The only reason that they did come to any agreement was that they wanted to be with their families over Christmas. If it wasn't for that we'd have chaos.
"How the heck am I and millions of other job doers supposed to drive an economic recovery with this kind of tax uncertainty from Congress?"
You can ask the same question regarding the Bush tax cuts.
Cory, let's face it, we won't be able to put the uncertainty fairy back into her cage until the next round of elections is behind us. In the meantime, it's baby steps, baby.
I think this deal is a little victory. A red-headed step child perhaps, but worthy of our adoption nonetheless.
Next steps for the Keystone supporters is as you outline.
Prove there are really new jobs there for American workers, that gas prices will go down, not up, and that the whole scheme isn't just a way for Canada to get its funky crude to China tax free at the expense of a lot of enviro risk and appropriated real estate in the US of A.
A few guarantees might be in order. Otherwise, we end up with things like big tax cuts on the rich "job creators" for 10 years and counting and no net gain in jobs to attribute to it. Talk about a failed stimulus.
Thune is a career politician steeped in the Native blood spilled to turn the earth now a the chemical toilet. If money and hamburgers are all that matter to you...he's your guy.
If I don’t know today what my take-home pay is going to be in March, then clearly there’s no reason for me to keep doing my job right now.
Oh yes there is, Cory. They're expecting you at your place of employment, right? You like your work, don't you? You haven't been fired or laid off, have you?
I don't know what my "take home pay" will be (also in March, ironically) either, because it depends on how many people buy my books. I can say that my last "paycheck" was approximtely 1/4 of my "paycheck" for the same period four years ago. But it has nothing to do with taxes or the government. Taxes can go up or down by a few percent, but that's nothing compared to going down by 75 percent or up by 400 percent! Oh, but that's the nature of this writing racket, this writing siren, whom I love despite her foibles.
Nevertheless, this two-month extension deal, this kicking a dying dog down the dusty drag to destruction, really irritates me. One might wonder, after that, whether it'll be a two-week deal, or a two-day deal, or what? Will it be an infinite series of deals of ever-shorter duration? Will the series diverge or will it converge to a point of reckoning?
I think the payroll tax cut was a mistake. I also think it was a political trick by this administration to make Obama look like a tax-cutter. Meanwhile the surtax on the rich falls by the wayside; all of the factors drive up the deficit, drive it up, up, up, until the public, brought to a state of panic at some future point, will swallow a brand new value-added tax (VAT) as a "cure." I believe that's the real agenda of this administration. Of course that won't "cure" anything; it'll simply give the fiscal alcoholic the keys to the fiscal liquor store, and we'll end up like Europe. Heck of a lot of good that'll do us! Those countries have far higher taxes than we do, including VATs that in some cases exceed 20 percent, and for the most part they're in worse shape than we are.
I'd say let the doggone tax cut expire, and impose the surtax on the rich. Get spending in line too. Do a "double Daugaard"! South Dakota has survived it, and the country will survive it, and in the long run end up healthier for it. But our current crop of cuckoos can't possibly do anything like that.
Yeah, Cory, I'm angry about the uncertainty, as you are. But I'm also glad that some, at least a few, people still want my stuff (books), so I've got some income to get taxed. Any percentage of zero would equal zero, but that wouldn't be a very good scenario.
Good eye, Stan.
Peace is Rapid City’s profession: Ellsworth Air Force Base employs at least 3,943 and contributes $313M to the Black Hills economy.
Happy Solstice, Iraq: it’s been a blast. Sorry about having to bomb you back to the Industrial Revolution and killing a million of your people.
[minor sarcasm warning]: Stan, thanks for talking me off that ledge! I see now that you are absolutely right: there really are some market factors that outweigh the irremediable uncertainty of tax policy. [minor sarcasm ends]
I remain torn on whether the payroll tax cut is a mistake. It does make Obama look like a tax cutter, but I am inclined to believe it's not just a stunt: it's one of the few passable stimulus tools available. Juicing the economy requires juicing demand. Juicing demand requires putting money in consumers' pockets (preferably working-class consumers, since we all know those rich guys just light cigars with their hundred-dollar bills). The payroll tax cut does that... unless you offset it with spending cuts, which cancel out the stimulative effect.
The $33B two-month extension will boost the economy more than the remaining few billion TransCanada would spend building Keystone XL. And don't forget, Keystone XL then drags the economy down by raising our gasoline prices.
Well, Cory, I had a bit of sarcasm coming there. But here's a little extra fuel for you: If you had not put in the sarcasm warnings, I would have missed the subtle sarcastic flavor of your response. Not sure I even get it now. Guess I'm deaf to my own tunes. Not so good ...
In my opinion, the Bush tax cuts were a mistake, the payroll tax cut was a mistake, and extending the payroll tax cut will constitute a mistake as well.
Juicing demand means putting more money in consumers' pockets, yes, but it also means giving consumers some degree of confidence that they'll have jobs in 2012 and beyond, and that the economy itself won't just collapse under the weight of debt (or fears of debt).
Right now, I sense a growing general unease similar to what we faced in the 1960s and 1970s. I have actually begun to wonder if the fabric of civilization might soon unravel. If many consumers share my fear, then it'll take a lot more than a payroll tax cut to "stimulate" the economy.
When you're the captain of a ship in a hurricane, you just want to keep the doggone vessel on an even keel! If I were a candidate for President, I'd say, "My tax plan comprises leaving things alone so people can get some sense of stability. We'll worry about revising the tax code, as bad as it is, once our economy has stabilized, and then I'll bring together a diverse group to make sure that nobody gets hammered and nobody gets an unfair advantage, either."
But no, all we see is gimmicks.
As for the effect of the Keystone XL pipeline on our economy, I really can't say. I just don't know enough about it to make a forecast one way or the other. I am not especially fond of the notion that it'll go through sensitive environments, and I don't much care for the eminent domain abuses that have apparently gone along with it. We shouldn't rush this project, in any case. Haste makes waste, and I don't want to get stuck with the cleanup bill.
Cory, how about a post concerning Newt Gingrich's tax proposal? He wants to get rid of the capital gains tax, get rid of the death tax, lower the corporate tax rate, and instutute a 15-percent flat tax. Geez, I thought Robert Reich might physically explode on CNN when he reacted to that! Talk about "stimulus"! Give our economy enough caffeine and it'll keel over dead on the spot. Oh well, then all we'd have to worry about is staying alive for the next 24 hours. One day at a time, you know. Simple!
Not to worry, Stan: my sarcasm is directed not at you but at the Noem-GOP criers of "uncertainty."
The Bush tax cuts were clearly a mistake, since they dropped us into this massive deficit and left us with a decade of stagnant wages. The payroll tax cuts are at least targeted at the right segment of the economy, the consumers who generate demand.
Good points, Cory.
And then along came this little bug in the butter ...
http://persquaremile.com/2011/12/16/income-inequality-in-the-roman-empire/
We have no God but mammon.
That link offers some serious egghead blogging, Stan! Good read! One line caught my eye: in 218 BC, the Romans banned senators from participating in business deals.
Why weren't you guys posting the "egghead blogging" on Friday so my public forum debaters could have used it to debate "income inequalities are detrimental to democratic ideals"? Last weekend was their final tournament on the resolution.
Seriously, great link. Thanks Stan
"The Bush tax cuts were clearly a mistake, since they dropped us into this massive deficit and left us with a decade of stagnant wages."
No Cory, it was the spending that created the deficit "spending".
From Stan's link:
"In other words, what we see as the glory of Rome is really just the rubble of the rich, built on the backs of poor farmers and laborers, traces of whom have all but vanished."
Isn't that what both political parties are advocating? The government in partnership with the private sector to create jobs. The call for redistribution is a trick to get Democrats to go along with the New World Order's plan...Big Government creating monopolistic capitalism.
How would you cut Social Security, cut its funding. Call it a stimulus all you want but it puts money in one pocket by breaking the bank of another pocket.