Oh, I know, I'm just obsessed....
KELO wasted airtime last week talking about a December poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that found Stephanie Herseth Sandlin would have beat Kristi Noem in an election held in December 2011... which is silly, of course, since Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is not running, and since elections aren't held in December.
But for those of you who are interested, the complete poll has been posted online. The D.C. pollsters didn't have the courtesy to ask respondents about the actual announced challengers, Jeff Barth and Matt Varilek. But if there is any value in this poll of registered South Dakota voters, it may lie in the following data points:
- In all three swings at the question, after being read various propaganda for and against Noem and SHS, respondents dropped Noem by at least a ten-point spread.
- Counting leaners, the sample split 49% GOP, 13% Indy, and 39% Dem.
- Not counting leaners, the sample split 36% GOP, 36% Indy, and 28% Dem.
- The issue on which Noem stands to take the biggest political hit is her vote for Rep. Paul Ryan's plan to voucherize Medicare. Not far behind: her votes to maintain subsidies for Big Oil while raising payroll taxes for everyone else.
- Governor Dennis Daugaard and Senator Tim Johnson both have job approval ratings in the 70% range. Rep. Noem's job approval is at 56%.
- Noem's overall favorability is under 50%.
Beating Noem will not be easy. But the DCCC poll suggests she is far from the "bulletproof" candidate Ed Randazzo wishes she were. The DCCC poll points to the issues challengers can focus on to take her out. Go get 'er, boys!
Noem is clearly vulnerable. What is the deadline for a Democrat to enter the House race in the general, Cory?
Cory,
It is interesting how closely the DCCC poll on a Herseth Sandlin vs. Noem rematch compares to the Nielson Brothers poll published last fall which showed Stephanie in the mid 50's and Noem around 40 percent. If you remember, at the time Republicans became hysterical about Nielson's results and didn't have a good thing to say about the South Dakota based polling firm. After all the flack, I bet the Nielson Brothers feel vindicated with their results now confirmed by a high priced DC based polling firm. Some in the South Dakota media should be embarrassed to have been pressured into not covering the Nielson Brothers poll. A little crow should be sent their way for their consumption.
Larry, according to Secretary Gant's calendar, the last day for primary candidates to file petitions is Tuesday, March 27. Independent candidates have until primary day, Tuesday, June 5. To get on the U.S. House ballot, Dems need 1221 signatures, Repubs 1955, and Indies 3171.
Interesting to note those September NBP numbers, Sheldon! If we can compare the two polls, SHS's edge slipped, and perhaps understandably, given that Dems now know they have other options. Noem saw higher numbers on a couple passes of the DCCC question, but by the third question, after the firm had tried out the various anti-Noem lines (along with some anti-SHS lines), Noem's support was back down to 37%, the same figure found by NBP five months ago.
Noem is vulnerable against the right candidate. I don't think after SHS was run down by Noem for being a Pelosi bot she wanted to hear the same stuff about her being an Obama bot.
Noem will get her due eventually. She isn't lighting the world up outside of Fox News. Funny I bet she's more popular amongst conservatives nationally than in SD.
Wow! Did you get under some skin over at BrandX.
I very much appreciate your posts about Noem. If you hadn't been there what would BrandX have posted about? Doesn't look like they had anyone there blogging about it.
I hope BrandX talks about Cory being at Noem's townhall a hundred more times. Not everyone on the planet has seen Cory's post.
And Troy. Do you take medicine for your new brain tumor? You used to be thinking and personable, able to discuss issues with people outside of the little clique and somewhat enjoyable. Is it old age or beating your head against the Hate Wall that turned you into a wholly partisan neanderthal?
Noem is in over her head. Noem is a public representative. I give her props for dismissing the Muslim comments. And Cory gets props for asking her about it, as not one Republican did not and, apparently, would not.
It's OK if you're a Republican who's not happy with Noem. IOKIYAR. Buyer's remorse by SD Republican voters is abundantly clear when it comes to Noem. They just hate it when Cory points out their failings.
Thanks, Taunia! I'm trying to figure out who's more obsessed: me with Noem's flaws, or Brand X with little old me.