Last updated on 2014.08.05
On Friday, Nielson Brothers Polling released the first big survey of how the general election may swing in South Dakota. Their results confirm the expected: Republicans are leading every big race. They also confirm what you'd expect if your political analysis goes beyond haircuts and horses: Rep. Kristi Noem faces the toughest race of any Republican on the statewide ballot.
Here are the Nielson numbers for the picks made by randomly selected registered voters called from July 19 to July 23, in order of GOP advantage:
- PUC 4-year term: Chris Nelson beats Nick Nemec 54%–30%.
- President: Mitt Romney beats Barack Obama 49%–43%.
- PUC 6-year term: Kristie Fiegen beats Matt McGovern 43%–41%.
- U.S. House: Kristi Noem beats Matt Varilek 47%–46%
The big news (in terms of press coverage, not just my personal excitement) is Noem's statistical dead heat with Varilek. Team Noem's first response: non sequitur!
Tom Erickson, Noem's campaign manager, said he doesn't put a lot of stock in the NBP numbers.
"I would have to dismiss anyone who claims someone who supports President Obama's health care law is getting 46 percent," Erickson said [Tom Lawrence, "Poll: Noem Leads by a Point," Mitchell Daily Republic, 2012.08.04].
Pollsters Paul and Mark Nielson both contribute labor to a family farm, so if you reject their polling results, you're obviously anti-farmer. Paul Nielson also happens to be an ordained pastor, so if you don't trust his polling, you must worship Satan.
Such comments make about as much sense as Noem's health care response. South Dakotans who oppose the Affordable Care Act can still recognize that Kristi Noem hasn't gotten anything done as Congresswoman. They can recognize that her 33 grandstanding votes to repeal ObamaCare have wasted time and money that could have been spent solving real problems. They can recognize that, much as they may not like the Affordable Care Act, they find Noem's plan to destroy Medicare even worse.
Team Noem's second response has just slightly more logic: they cite (and GOP-machine blog DWC belabors) the fact that Nielson Brothers Polling blew the 2010 gubernatorial race by 20 points. True dat... but also true, as Tom Lawrence notes, NBP much more accurately polled the 2010 House race:
However, that same poll showed Noem with a 44.3-41.8 lead with independent candidate B. Thomas Marking at 6.5 percent and 7 percent undecided. On Election Day, Noem won 48.1-45.9 percent, and Marking garnered almost 6 percent [Lawrence, 2012.08.04].
A dead heat between Noem and Varilek does not defy logic. Noem didn't win a majority in 2010, and she's done little to expand her base. She has no legislative achievements to show to Independents. She's botching the Farm Bill, just like the incumbent whom George McGovern beat in 1956. Despite her constant preening for Fox News, she's dissed her base, voting for self-serving big-government handouts and declining to hang out with the Tea Party caucus. Ask, "What has Kristi Noem done for you lately?" and a majority of South Dakotans will respond with head scratching silence... and quite possibly a willingness to hire someone else to speak for South Dakota in Congress.
Team Noem's nervous response to these distressing poll numbers is all the wrong kind of denial. Team Varilek's response is more sensible: cheer the numbers, but keep hammering on issues... and always, always, always run as if you are behind.
Update 10:25 CDT: Bob Mercer finds the NBP numbers plausible as well.
While encouraging for Democrats, this poll would be even more so if those polled were screened as "likely" voters.
The the Republicans run like they know they've got it in the bag and the Dems run all out, Varilek could very well be competitive.
I suspect the more debates he's in, the better shot he'll have. (Which is the real reason there won't be a debate a week as Team Varilek wants, and South Dakota deserves.)
While Erickson's response to Obama's 46% was a non sequitur, certainly you were surprised, right?
Surprised? Not as much as you might think. I've felt Noem has been weak all along. I hear enough backroom chatter from Republican friends who see through her baloney that I get the impression of shallow support for Noem. I try not to fall for my own wishful thinking... but I would be very pleased to see that people will pick their Rep based on issues, not image. If we pierce that veil, Noem is toast.
Noem got a big break to win her first term. The Tea Party craze raised the Republican tide. Democrats stayed home in droves, disappointed by Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's Blue Dog two-step. And Noem squeaked in with 48 percent of the vote to Stephanie's 46 percent share.
So, what has Noem done with this rare opportunity to win a House term? She's been the hood ornament of the Tea Party wing of the GOP House, which means nothing to regular voters in South Dakota.
Varilek has a bigger shot here than many of us suspect. The question is what will Matt do to pull away the title of Representative from someone whose only accomplishment in Washington has been to be a "me too" partisan hack for the 1 Percent's corporate lobbyists?
Varilek's altar boy image appeals to the blue-hairs: he needs to start talking about amending ObamaCare.
Andrea Seabrook left NPR because she could no longer cover Congress without bias; she witnessed how effective Congress is when one party controls the reins of power.
South Dakotans know that Willard Romney will lose spectacularly, but will vote for him because the President is black. The blue-hairs know that returning the House to the Democrats is the best way to pull DC out of the ditch.
Mark,
If you read the Nielson Brothers press release or most of the news reports about their poll, you will see they did screen for "likely" voters. Their poll has the additional precision you desire. It also has a margin of error of slightly over 4%, so Noem might be up a bit more than the current sample or she might be down a little. The main point of the poll is that the race is closer than conventional wisdom would expect. Noem has lots of money and Varilek doesn't have as much. She will probably win in the end. In the meantime, hopefully Nielson Brothers will do more polling and allow us to follow the horses around the track. Watching a race is always more exciting than just a photo of the finish.
As for myself, I find it hard to believe any South Dakotan, any American for that matter, would vote for any Republican. Their current program, with Noem's full throated endorsement, would replace Medicare with an insurance voucher, give large tax breaks to the very wealthy while raising taxes on the middle class, and gut the very laws designed to protect us from their corporate cronies.
Vote for America. Vote Democratic.
Vote American, Vote Democratic.
Less GOP. More Jobs.
Give 'em Hell, Obama.
Varilek could have fireside chats next to a Black Hills fire.
There are days when it seems Democrats couldn't sell free heat to Eskimos.
Having voted 33 times and failing 33 times to repeal health care for people with pre-existing conditions and college students, Noem sees her value in Congress to function as a stooge for Boehner and the goofy ideologues. The only people who see the value in voting a 34th time and failing a 34th time to repeal health care reforms is Noem and the other stooges running the U.S. House of Representatives.
Now it's your turn to vote. As Judy says, vote for America. Time for Noem to go home.
I stand corrected. Thanks, Judy, for straightening me out on the "likely" voter pool. (I must have misread a report that those pooled were simply listed at registered, but not necessarily "likely" voters. IMO, this campaign really kicks off during the first debate on the 22nd. I think more people will come around afterward and will see this race as competitive, especially when Noem has to engage with something beyond talking points.
My gut tells me Noem is polling below 50% and her campaign doesn't want us to know this.
Your guy could well be right, Mike! What has Noem done, other than being the incumbent, that would increase her vote total from 2010? And what has she done to decrease that vote total?
Wheres Noems bill on prexisting conditions to make sure they cant drain your bank account come on Kristi.
It would be too funny if Kristi Noem left Congress as quickly as she came in like a flash in the pan.
Why else would Noem not just release a poll and show us that she is a "Rockstar" unless she can't clear 50%?
50% indicates bad news for any incumbent and it all rides on the opponents ability to capitalize. Maybe Varilek can and maybe he can't.
I bet if we were to see polling between Noem and Herseth then Noem would be behind substantially right now. I've heard many of my hardcore elitest friends laugh at how dumb they were to vote for Noem over SHS.
Tell your hardcore elitist friends that the only penance they need to perform is to quietly vote for Varilek in November. Total absolution... and better government!
Rasmussen's likely voters warming up to ACA...slowly: article.
Dems need to look at numbers like Rasmussen's, recognize that opposition to the PPACA is far from universal, and win the respect of voters by saying, "Heck yeah, I like it! If we disagree, then so be it. Let's talk about our differences."
Momentum has swung to our campaigns: let's not squander it by backing off even though the bullies are now squealing "victim."
You rock, CAH.
Thanks, Larry! You provide me with useful food for thought as well. And I never back off when I'm right... or when Noem is wrong.