Press "Enter" to skip to content

Noem Gained Votes Everywhere; Varilek Lost SHS Voters in 41 Counties…

Last updated on 2012.11.11

So much for my thesis that dissatisfied Republicans could have given Matt Varilek an advantage in his challenge to Rep. Kristi Noem. If any Republicans are disappointed with No-Show Noem, they were outnumbered by GOP voters eager to affirm their worldviews with votes for Noem and Romney. Some telling numbers:

  1. 41,911 more people voted in this year's South Dakota Congressional race than voted in the 2010 Congressional race (13.1% increase).
  2. Rep. Kristi Noem won 53,891 more votes this year than she did in 2010 (35.1% gain).
  3. Matt Varilek won 7,154 more votes this year than Stephanie Herseth Sandlin did in 2010 (4.9% gain).
  4. Every county gave Kristi Noem more votes than it did in 2010.
  5. 41 counties gave Matt Varilek fewer votes than they gave SHS in 2010. In those counties, Varilek lost 3,947 SHS voters.
  6. The 25 counties that gave Varilek more voters than they gave SHS in 2010 included Minnehaha, where Varilek picked up 4,390 more voters than SHS in 2010, and Pennington, where his gain was 1,919.
  7. Voter turnout statewide was 69.65%
  8. Counties with higher GOP registration tended to have higher turnout (correlation for those of you scoring at home: 0.6538).
  9. Counties with higher Dem registration tended to have lower turnout (correlation: –0.6332).
My conclusion from those numbers: Contrary to all the good reasons Kristi Noem gave for Republicans to fire her this year, more Republicans across the state were excited to come out and give her another dip in the D.C. pool. Noem lit a fire under her base that Varilek did not.

8 Comments

  1. larry kurtz 2012.11.12

    I'm dreaming of a white xmas
    just like the ones i used to know
    where the sabres glisten
    and children listen
    to hear hotchkiss guns and snow....

  2. DP 2012.11.12

    Ms Noem will talk the talk, but won't walk the walk. The next time the Northern Hills will see her face is when she wants their votes in two years. Meanwhile, she'll be a powerful force in D.C. attacking "big government regulations" such as faux farm dust or forbidding six year olds from working on farms. Oh South Dakota, what are you thinking?

  3. mike 2012.11.12

    I think Varilek did his job. He kept the SHS numbers with him. Maybe he didn't gain much but for a weak candidate like him to hold everything together is a positive.

    Brenden Johnson only needs to make up 8-9% in a race against Noem in 2014 instead of 15-20. I give Varilek some credit even though he was a poor candidate.

  4. mike 2012.11.12

    This could have been a Whalen or Lien style blow out. Look at Johnson, Thune and SHS' reelection numbers and then look at Noem's. Her's were well below the trend of SD reelection campaigns.

  5. cappy 2012.11.22

    Sounds like a lot of sour grape eating dems in SD right now. The 20 percent dems who vote straight dem will never change. Just look at the example up north in Watertown where 20% of the dems voted for a 93-yr old woman who lives in assisted living.

  6. larry kurtz 2012.11.22

    Hope is the last emotion to die, cappy Andrew.

  7. caheidelberger Post author | 2012.11.22

    (Nope, not him, Larry!)

    What sour grapes? I give a pretty honest assessment here of some important electoral numbers. And are those dedicated straight-ticket Dem any different from their counterparts in the Republican party?

Comments are closed.