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SD Voter Turnout Highest in GOP Turf; Lowest in Indian Country

By caheidelberger on 2012.11.12

I spent my weekend hip-deep in spreadsheets. Not a bad weekend.

69.65% of us South Dakotans voted last week's election. Just about one in four of us voters (89,921 out of 368,177) did so early or absentee.

Following are the ten counties where voters turned out in the greatest numbers:

County Registered Voters Votes Cast Percent Turnout
Jones 750 622 82.93%
Haakon 1376 1108 80.52%
Harding 946 747 78.96%
Bon Homme 3971 3128 78.77%
Stanley 1991 1555 78.10%
Sully 1065 828 77.75%
Custer 5902 4565 77.35%
Gregory 2863 2193 76.60%
Kingsbury 3520 2652 75.34%
Hughes 10972 8256 75.25%

In all but one of these counties, Matt Varilek's ancestral Bon Homme land, Republicans made up over 50% of registered voters on Election Day. (Republicans make up 46.0% of the statewide voter pool.)

Who stayed out of the election most frequently?

County Registered Voters Votes Cast Percent Turnout
Walworth 3842 2518 65.54%
Bennett 1893 1229 64.92%
Mellette 1208 783 64.82%
Clay 8285 5294 63.90%
Brule 3403 2122 62.36%
Dewey 3099 1923 62.05%
Corson 2431 1223 50.31%
Todd 5008 2518 50.28%
Ziebach 1594 777 48.75%
Shannon 7778 3183 40.92%

Six of those counties have voter pools that are more than 50% Democratic. All but Walworth have Democratic contingents larger than the statewide average of 35.8%. It appears that South Dakota Democrats felt less motivated to get themselves to the polls than did South Dakota Republicans.

A majority of lowest turnout counties are Indian country, where poverty and incomplete Census data make it hard to get out the vote. The lack of an organized voter turnout effort by the South Dakota Democratic Party didn't help. Dewey and Bennett counties did see higher turnout than in 2008, but Shannon, Ziebach, Todd, Corson, and Brule saw declines from the last Presidential election, when the SDDP did organize get-out-the-vote drives.

Here's the full map, with highest turnout in the bright purple counties, lower in the faded counties. Click on each county to see its turnout, as well as its percentages of registered Republicans, Democrats, and Independents:

One bit of fantasy football: imagine Dems had come out in greater force in every county. Take the no-shows in each county and multiply by the local percentage of Democratic registration. You get 57,513 Dem votes.

Kristi Noem beat Matt Varilek by 53,891 votes statewide. When voters don't show up, they get a Congresswoman who doesn't show up.

Published in South Dakota

caheidelberger

8 Comments

  1. larry kurtz 2012.11.12

    If yer not a fat, white retiree buying ground in South Dakota, yer a fool.

  2. larry kurtz 2012.11.12

    Affluent, older, Caucasian retirees from California, Minnesota, and Colorado should start buying real estate in South Dakota today.

  4. Bob Mercer 2012.11.12

    Superior turnout is how Tom Daschle beat Jim Abdnor in 1986, and how Tim Johnson beat Larry Pressler in 1996. John Thune comprehended those lessons and focused on turnout in 2002. He nearly defeated Tim Johnson. In 2004, with further refinement, John Thune defeated Tom Daschle. In fact, Tom Daschle conceded before the Shannon County ballots were fully counted.

  5. Curtis Price 2012.11.12

    Your fantasy football on Dem turnout is a little bit far fetched if you take into account voters that don't truly exist. We need more registered Dems - AND we need to get more R's to get involved enough to see that voting the party label is not getting them the Legislature they apparently want (based on all the laws we strike down every November).

    BTW, my favorite comment of election night was his statement on SDPB that questions about Kristi Noem's performance were "vindicated" on election night. No, what was confirmed is that as far as the majority of South Dakotans care, "It's All Right, Cuz It's All Right" (apologies to the great Chris Rock).

  6. Curtis Price 2012.11.12

    Sorry that comment about Noem's performance being vindicated was by Dusty Johnson. Killed by edit, sorry.

  7. caheidelberger Post author | 2012.11.12

    Agreed, Curtis: emphasis on the word "fantasy." Varilek did pick up some of the slack, doing his own GOTV in Indian Country, but it would have taken a mighty GOTV effort to get all 57K+ of those missing Dem votes to all go for Varilek. Those 57K+ voters didn't come out last time for SHS. But some of them did come out in 2008 for Obama, and they are out there.

    I also agree that "vindicated" is far too strong a word... unless Dusty is willing to come out and say publicly that I and nearly every teacher in this state were even more "vindicated" by the vote against RL16.

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