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Secession Doesn’t Pay

Last updated on 2012.11.16

Forget the moral critique of the Obama-grieving secessionists as seditious America-haters. Let's talk pragmatics. If you secessionists think you're in bad fiscal shape now, just think how bad off you'd be if you got your wish and turned your state into it's own little country. Last night's Marketplace explains:

Supporters of the drives point to the trillions of dollars in taxes the states give the U.S. government every year and ask, "What has Uncle Sam done for us lately?"

A lot, says Jared Bernstein, who is a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

"Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamp benefits."

Bernstein says for most states, the value of those benefits outweighs what they hand over in taxes. But there are states that give more than they get, like New York and Colorado. Should they secede? Bernstein says no.

"The answer’s no, because we have such an interdependent system," he says. Things like highways, disaster aid, and the military would be a big bill for a potential loner state [Stacey Vanek Smith, "The Economics of Secession," Marketplace, 2012.11.14].

Wharton economist Kent Smetters tells Vanek Smith that of all 50 states, only Texas has the resources to go it alone. But even Rick Perry is smart enough to reject that path and stick with the great and glorious Union.

Now folks in New Jersey, New York, and Minnesota could argue that they could get along better if they seceded and freed themselves of subsidizing the top moocher states (New Mexico... Alaska... South Dakota). But fortunes change, and there's strength in numbers:

But today’s basket case could be tomorrow’s bread basket -- that's bread as in money, says Ernest Istook, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former congressman. "States that were prosperous at one time may not be as prosperous now. And the reverse is also true," he says.

After all, you never know where the next Silicon Valley or shale deposit might be, so maybe it's better to keep the family together [Vanek Smith, 2012.11.14].

Besides, the moment any set of states decide to go Stars and Bars, Russia takes back Alaska, China goes Red Dawn on the smaller chunks, and heck, Canada probably invades to grab some warm turf and pipeline corridor.

Get real, secessionists. Breaking up America is the surest way to plunge the several States into economic disaster and put us all at the mercy of other nations that would see their chance to end American global dominance once and for all.

Update 2012.11.16 07:35 MST: Hard-right P&R Miscellany calls secession "silly, useless, and idiotic."

Update 20:25 MST: The redoubtable David Montgomery writes a practical guide to South Dakota secession. Fiscally, at least, Montgomery says it could be "daunting," but not necessarily "disastrous." His analysis assumes, of course, that the federal government lets us go with no hassle.

27 Comments

  1. mc 2012.11.15

    I can't believe this, but Cory is correct. Yes we have our problems, however, we can work together get through them.

    This is still the best country in the world. However it doesn't come out a price. We (everyone) has to do their part. It will be hard at times. Then again a few things in life that worth having are easy.

    This isn't the time to run away, this is the time to stand up and be Americans.

  2. caheidelberger Post author | 2012.11.15

    I'm with you, MC. We can have a lot more fun sharing one country and arguing about how to make it better than we can walling ourselves off in our own separate utopias... which will last fewer years than did the Article of Confederation before sharks smell the blood and swim over to gobble us up. (Canadians say they won the War of 1812; split us up, they might well come back to finish the job.)

  3. larry kurtz 2012.11.16

    It's important to remember that Native Alaska and states with sovereign tribal nations within their borders are dependent by treaty. Montana was one state where non-white voters elected Democrats because we tend to more appreciate a heritage bound to Earth rather than to capital.

    One unfortunate reality is that bean counters cherry-pick numbers to support their state employers' biases to better compete with tribes for federal resources. DD is expected to be in Belle Fourche to break ground for an industry in a county that doesn't give one whit for environmental protection while tribal communities downstream already struggle with crappy water.

    Red state collapse continues.

  4. mc 2012.11.16

    Larry you think you got problems now? Just wait. If this idea of secession goes through, there won't be a federal goverment to depend on. The tribes will be on their own. You talk about crappy water. You could end up with no water, or food. I have heard rumor about this movement leading to a possible civil war. This idea is bad, Bad, BAD.

  5. larry kurtz 2012.11.16

    Holy war is already underway, mc: martial law is a long, long way off, however.

  6. Douglas Wiken 2012.11.16

    We need a Whitehouse petition to fund moverment of Gingrich, McCain, Graham, Ryan, McConnell, George Will, Koch Brothers, et all on oxygenless trips to the moon.

  7. Stan Gibilisco 2012.11.16

    Let's keep in mind that these loons (secessionists) are a tiny minority, far fewer in number than the Tea Party or the Occupiers.

    Given a little time and a lot less attention, these people will find something else to do and their movement will fade, as the Tea Party movement has done, and as the Occupy movement has done.

    If we pay them a lot of attention, though, and make a huge fuss over them, they'll feed on it, get bolder, and despite their small numbers, possibly start making real trouble.

    The dogs bark. The caravan moves on.

  8. Steve Sibson 2012.11.16

    "Let's keep in mind that these loons (secessionists) are a tiny minority"

    Stan, thanks for voicing the radical left's mob rule and to hell with minority rights mantra.

    Bill come on, have somebody film you screaming into a mirror accusing everybody of being who you are, and then upload it to youtube. I bet it would be so funny that it would go viral.

  9. Michael Black 2012.11.16

    There are far more of these people than you realize...and they are serious.

  10. John 2012.11.17

    Gee, talk about sore losers; you'd think they actually l o s t the popular vote by half-a-million votes or something.

  11. Joseph G Thompson 2012.11.17

    One of the best right wing articles Cori has written. Larry, I also agree with you that Mexico should be afforded the opportunity to join in this great Union of ours, I would put the entire worlds population under the protection of our Constitution. I had no idea you both were so sold on the exceptionalism of the United States and the importance that the United States stays the most dominant power in the world. To maintain that dominance in this cruel, dark world we live in, requires a government able to protect us from enemies that would kill Americans here or abroad. In that same cruel world we live in, the ability to project military power is the foremost way that America maintains that dominance. I now know that I can expect your support for of the defense budget as the attack on military manning, benefits and weapon systems begins. Love the last verse of the Battle Hymn of the Republic, "As He died to make men holy, let us die to make men free".

  12. caheidelberger Post author | 2012.11.17

    Michael, they are not so numerous, and they are far from serious. They have conducted no serious analysis of the practical costs of secession. They are angry but impotent, mad that they lack the organizing skills necessary to win an election in a big modern democracy. They thus petulantly advocate the destruction of that big modern democracy in favor of tiny, weak ethnic enclaves where they think they'll be able to wall themselves away from people who think and look differently... until China, Russia, Mexico, and Canada roll in for a fire-sale invasion.

  13. John 2012.11.17

    Yes, Cory, they are acting as spoilt children. Another voice of sanity comes from republican strategist David Frum who reminds us that republican presidential candidates lost the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 elections. The reason is their policies are not relevant with the middle class.
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/videos/2012/11/09/david-frum-the-republican-message-is-no-longer-relevant-to-middle-class-america.html

    They and the voters were lied to, manipulated by the conservative entertainment complex.
    http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/frum-republicans-lied-to-by-conservative-entertainment-149120.html

    http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/12/opinion/frum-conservatives-despair/index.html

    Over my lifetime I did not leave the republican part; the republican party left me.

  14. Jana 2012.11.17

    I also fear that too many of them cannot accept that a Democrat won the election. The fact that he is black not to mention they believe is a Muslim from Kenya only fuels that fire.

    I'm still amazed that the head of the Minnehaha County GOP has promoted this and even more amazed that there hasn't seen much blow back from her own party.

  15. Les 2012.11.17

    Thank you Joseph. I find it interesting the thinkers I believe Corey and Jana to be, glossed over your verse. Shame for the hypocrisy.

  16. Jana 2012.11.17

    Les, I remember well singing the Battle Hymn of the Republic in church during the Vietnam war as we would honor veterans and sing the song at their funerals. Including my cousin's funeral when his body was shipped back from Vietnam.

    As a 10 year old in Sunday School, I had a hard time understanding that his death was the same as Christ's in moral value.

    We did change the words later to "Let us 'Live' to make men free..."

    There is an interesting history to the song though. It was one of the most popular during the Civil War...just to keep the secessionist theme going. Was the message that it is just, moral and Christ like to kill the secessionists and free the slaves?

  17. joseph g thompson 2012.11.17

    The theme was and is that to be who we truly are as citizens of the United States of America we must be prepared to fight for oppressed people everywhere even at the cost of our own lives. I realize that most Americans really don't care, or think it a little hokey but that is ok cause I don't mind being laughed at knowing that, after seeing a truly oppressed people, most of the 1% who defend us feel as I do. If a truly oppressed people need and want our help to throw off that oppression then we as America should help them, if they don't want the help then stay away.

  18. Les 2012.11.17

    Yes Joseph, as long as we don't confuse international corporate interests backed by our military as humanitarian.

  19. joseph g thompson 2012.11.17

    Les,
    That is why our Constitution requires our elected representatives and not international corporations to decide when and where American forces will be used.

    That we are not always faithful to that is another reason to carefully select who represents us to the world.

    This whole discussion on secession is laughable. The War between the States was made possible by the idea, at that moment of history, that the leaders of America owed first allegance to thier home states and not the fedral government or Constitution, hence no treason. That is no longer the case all serving and retired members of the armned forces owe allegence only to the U.S. Constitution and are required by oath to protect that document against all enemies, foregn and domestic.
    To ask for secession is not a crime against the constitution, it is protected free speech. An attempt to impliment it, peacefully or through force, is an act of treason and would require all members of the military, active, reserve, or retired to actively oppose it in thought, word, and deed or be guilty of treason.

  20. Jana 2012.11.17

    Joseph, agreed. What scares me is that the corporate interests own the elected representatives. Follow the money...better yet, get the money out of politics.

  21. Jana 2012.11.17

    Just how much did Dick Cheney's Halliburton make on the Iraqi war?

  22. caheidelberger Post author | 2012.11.17

    Les, I did not gloss over; I just sometimes need more time to think!

    Joseph, I recall maybe 15 years ago reading an article quoting an Air Force general saying that the United States has no interest in ruling the world; it's primary interest is in making sure that no one else rules the world, either. I have no problem maintaining a Union strong enough to protect its own interests and do some good in the world. Secession madly abandons that Union.

    Key phrase from John's links: "conservative entertainment complex." This little secession riot represents that cynical industry perfectly. Conservative hucksters like Limbaugh, Beck, Fox, etc. have sold out conservatives, immersing them in lies and fantasies, stoking their fears in much the way the rest of the media does to make an easy buck. That delusion, manufactured for mere profit, has now led some conservatives to advocate the destruction of the United States of America. Nothing could be more perverse.

  23. caheidelberger Post author | 2012.11.17

    As Joseph notes, the secession petitioneers aren't quite committing a crime. But if there is a crime here, perhaps responsibility lies more at the feet of the conservative entertainment complex that has produced this madness.

  24. Les 2012.11.17

    Sorry Corey, just shows you how quick I think your wit to be....

    "Nothing could be more perverse" Yes Corey, our Hucksters from both parties in DC telling us to trust them all the while they have both hands in our pockets or wherever they wish to put them at the orders of the money brokers.

  25. Alex 2012.11.17

    I notice the secessionaries (or secessionaires if you are of French ancestry, like me!) are not complaining of the $900 000 000 000 spent annually on the US military. Wow! That's a lot of money!

    No, their goal was to "defeat Obama". They failed. Now they want to join another country? Or start their own? The Constitution, which they revere as long as a Republican is racking up National Dent, forbids secession.

    So we are left with a comic, cosmic moment! "Ah, you lost, wanna go bye-bye!"

    What an opportunity for us! DINOS, RINOS, CINOS (Yes, Constitution-loving in Name Only), all running around, making noise! What do we do?

    Aha! Let's look at a Radical Document! Yes! The Preamble to the South Dakota Constitution! (How Sweet It Is!):

    We, the people of South Dakota, grateful to Almighty God for our civil and religious liberties, in order to form a more perfect and independent government, establish justice, insure tranquillity, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare and preserve to ourselves and to our posterity the blessings of liberty, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the state of South Dakota."

    Ahh, let us relax, Grasshopper, and see! "...promote the general welfare..." We can do this, within South Dakota government, and,
    omigosh, we can do this ANYWAY, outside the framework of South Dakota government, n'est–ce pas? (isn't it so--French, pronounced ness pah!) We can do this! Within and without! (Sorry, sounds like a Beatles song, right?)

    Then I leisurely peruse more of the South Dakota Constitution. Aha! Article 6, Section 4, the SD Bill of Rights, Right of Petition and Peaceable Assembly. Here it is! (Not as long as War and Peace, but very effective!):

    "4. Right of petition and peaceable assembly. The right of petition, and of the people peaceably to assemble to consult for the common good and make known their opinions, shall never be abridged."

    We take this for granted, but let's take a closer look. ".... to consult for the common good..." Oh goodness, that's mucho radical! We are all consultants now, in the BEST sense of the word!

    Wow! Someone would say. You mean we can CONSULT anytime? Anywhere in South Dakota? Or even anywhere? OK, I get it. This doesn't mean just a January to March thing in Pierre. It really does mean anywhere, anytime! Wow, ultra cool.

    Now consulting is different than passing laws and taxing. But the advantage? It is a lot more creative and can do SO MUCH GOOD, it would stagger our imaginations, if only we decide to let our imaginations "go for it", knowing we are just as important as any elected officials! Even further out, once we decide to get together and consult and talk aboutthe good things, and good creations that we can assemble, we have left the realm of law making and taxing and fully the inhabit the land (and it is a very big land!) of CREATING! Wow.

    We hear about the secession people. I look at another word. It's called cession. Hmmm. What does it mean? Merriam-Webster says "yielding". A famous example, Maryland and Virginia ceding land to form the District of Columbia. Perfect! What do we wish to "cede"? How about a few hours (OK, you people whose lives are perfectly organized on Blackberries and Iphones, just spend 20 minutes with us, and we'll add you to our growing list of co-creating consultants!) of time, a few pizzas, and some sacred enthusiasm? Then we'll be astonished (Thomas Edison style!) at we can create together!

    Democrats, tired of the every 2 year-they have 75% of the House and 80% of the Senate and 100% of the Governor's Chair Blues? Well, let's create Something that we own 100% ! And you know what? Article 6, Section 4, says we can!

  26. Alex 2012.11.18

    To be a successful seceder, you have to amend the Constitution first! Methinks they wish a demi-Constitutional Paradise where Congress lays no taxes, and Ayn Rand is insituted as a Founding Mother! Taxation is simply a loose way of cession: you give us some of your cash property, we will try to make a More Perfect Union.

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