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Rosenthal: Fiscal Cliff Vote May Bring Noem Primary Challenger… But Whom?

Pat Powers can't bring himself to say anything about Rep. Kristi Noem's vote with a minority of House Republicans for the fiscal cliff deal other than to call her justification of it "interesting."

Joel Rosenthal offers a little more insight... and a warning for Noem that her bolt from Tea Party fundamentalism may draw a primary challenge:

Lawmakers who could be vulnerable to a challenge include Michigan Rep. Dan Benishek and South Dakota Rep. Kristi Noem, who bucked her tea party base and backed the bill, calling it "damage control."

"This makes her vulnerable and there will be discussion that she should have a primary challenge," said Joel Rosenthal, a former South Dakota Republican chairman. "Whether it materializes depends on votes down the road" [Thomas Beaumont, "Fiscal Cliff Vote May Lead to Tough Primaries, Worry Republicans," Huffington Post, 2013.01.05].

Rosenthal's warning assumes Noem will stick with her House seat. If she runs for Senate, her fiscal cliff vote will be a moot point in the primary, as declared GOP Senate candidate Mike Rounds has said he'd have voted the same way Noem did.

Rosenthal's caution also assumes that the tea party base will even exist, let alone have the wherewithal to launch a serious primary challenge, in 2014. Tea partiers may be loading up on county party positions, but for the most part they are running from their 2012 failures to fringe issues that guarantee they will attract no serious campaigners capable of winning general elections. If Noem runs for House again in 2014, I would love to see her face a primary challenge from a skilled and committed conservative. But I don't see such a candidate coming from the Howie-Otten right wing of the SDGOP.

9 Comments

  1. mike 2013.01.06

    SD is a small state with a small amount of big money donors and every candidate who looks at themselves and sees potential is weak willed when it comes to crossing anyone of stature.

    Take Dusty Johnson, Marty Jackley, Russ Olson, Matt Michels none of these guys are fundamental conservatives. They are all practical people and they all feel they have a chance to be Governor or Congressman someday if they support the powers that be. Anyone of these 4 could give Noem a serious run in a primary but they might not win.

    When it comes to real Tea Party type candidates like Howie and Hubbel they probably can't raise the money and are seen as too fringe to win but they might make a little noise. Mostly Noem would scoff them off as a joke to her inner circle friends like she probably does now. Besides they are already justifying why she voted the way she did.

    Stace Nelson and Lance Russell are two guys who could be taken more seriously if they were to enter a primary. But they likely have their sights set on Daugaard more than Noem.

    Noem is getting free passes from the right because of the intense hatred of Daugaard and leadership. I'm sure it is partly because she is an atractive woman and Stace and his friends feel they are being chivalrous.

  2. larry kurtz 2013.01.06

    Of course we want knock-down drag-outs in every GOP primary. Noem has already drifted to the middle as will every idiot the banker-backed GOP South Dakota sends to DC.

  3. caheidelberger Post author | 2013.01.06

    Mike, is there any universe where one of those four mainstream Republicans would try to pick off Noem in a primary?

  4. grudznick 2013.01.06

    There are 19 fewer kitties today.

  5. Dana P. 2013.01.06

    yeah, me either, Cory. (we could only hope!) she's also in double trouble with some (Club For Growth, etc) because she wasn't one of the 67 to vote against the Sandy relief bill. hmmmm, it is curious what she will do.

  6. mike 2013.01.06

    Cory, I would think she'd have to really screw up for anyone legit to challenge her. It's such a small state that almost every elected official has a personal relationship with every other elected official. Also where does the money come from? We don't have many right wing millionares who want to run for office in SD other than Steve Kirby and he's a big Noem guy.

    Janklow might have challenged her. I suppose in a sense Rounds is challenging her by making early moves to box her out of the Senate race or at least handicap her.

  7. caheidelberger Post author | 2013.01.07

    Janklow would challenge anyone and be up front about it. Rounds's challenge to Noem is the typical passive-aggressive behavior we can expect in such a small circle where folks can't say what they are really thinking.

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