Stephanie Herseth Sandlin Picks Kindergarten, Raven Over Campaign
By caheidelberger on 2013.05.13
David Lias and other early Facebook risers catch the news first: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin blows up everyone's memes and decides she will not run for office in 2014:
Zachary Lars Herseth, today's most important player in South Dakota Democratic politics. (Photo posted by Stephanie Herseth Sandlin on Facebook.)
...after carefully contemplating that option, my family and I have concluded that the future should continue to be focused on the plans we laid last year at this time. We’re looking forward to more quality time with family and friends here in Sioux Falls, up at the farm and out on the river. And my career at Raven Industries is everything I had anticipated and more, and continues to be very highly rewarding.
While I know you share my confidence that working together we could win a statewide race next year, I’m also confident that the decision not to run is the right decision for Max, Zachary, me and our entire family. Zachary will be starting kindergarten in the fall of 2014, just weeks before next year’s general election. Further, I have tremendous respect for my fellow team members at Raven, and I’m committed to the success of the company [Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Facebook post, 2013.05.13].
I'll bet David Montgomery won't complain her missing the news cycle with a big announcement. Seth Tupper may complain that SHS is using her family to cover the real reasons not to run that she discovered during her unofficial media tour. Pat Powers will complain that in one week, he's lost the motivation for 80% of his speculatory inflammatory content over the past year.
And I'll just try to find another gubernatorial candidate. Bernie? Angie?
Update 11:34 MDT:Seth Tupper says SHS made a smart move, proving her family talk serious and making herself a stronger candidate for future races. Remember: SHS is just 42. She has a lot of life and public service ahead of her.
MC, I would love to see that debate, too. Think 2018. Maybe you can watch Stace and Stephanie duke it out... and then watch me tackle Steph's ticket-mate in the Lt. Gov. debates. (Nelson-Heidelberger 2018: the Fusion ticket! :-D )
Jenny, I do agree that we could use a strong new generation, working together with the old hands of the party to put together a good 2014 ticket. Maybe we can get R to jump in and bring some excitement?
Jenny
2013.05.13
Cory, you are the one that needs to run. Like I said, you have the name recognition, the intelligence to hold your own in any kind of debate, and your fan club. You aren't getting any younger! ;) Come on, Cory!
Jenny
2013.05.13
I'm implying Heidelberger should run for State House, not US Senate.
Rick
2013.05.13
I saw David Montgomery's sophomoric "news" article in today's Argus pooh-poohing the Weiland candidacy as not being the "heavyweight" that SHS is, under the page 1 headline "Analysts don't see Weiland as major factor for Senate." Gee, I thought, who are these analysts? Turns out it was only one analyst, Larry Sabato, director of Center for Politics at University of Virginia. Gee, I thought, it looks like all an Argus writer needs to do to generate a hit on a candidate is look to the echo chamber to retrieve the spin they want for their political narrative. In this case, Montgomery's narrative is "Mike Rounds is the inevitable winner of this election.”
I trust my perceptions of the evolving U.S. Senate race, and there are some truths which guide my opinion of what's really going on:
- This race is in its infancy. Hell, it’s hardly a zygote! The exit of Brendan Johnson and SHS returns the entire election for both parties into a pile of unshaped clay. The emergence of Rick Weiland is not to be taken lightly. He has a message, a personality and a list of achievements that are very suitable for winning a Senate race here in South Dakota. I guarantee you the RSCC isn’t taking it lightly and is working overtime “training” shallow reporters on all the dirt (real and tin foil hat fantasy) they can scrape up on Weiland. Marginalizing the Democrat in this Senate race, whether it was Brendan Johnson, Tim Johnson, SHS, Weiland or anyone else, has been the obvious narrative prescribed to reporters by the RSCC. Reporters who dumb enough to buy those apples need to stop shopping for apples. The 2014 Senate race is going to be a very different experience.
- The Rounds candidacy is deep and formidable, but it is showing its limits. It has stirred interest, but not much beyond the usual suspects of whom we know to be real Mike Rounds supporters and those who enjoyed the mutual back scratching to from his old days in the Capitol. The campaign is raising money, but similarly it is not raising money beyond the usual suspects, and it is not raising the kind of money that would excite national groups. If I were working for Mike, I’d keep raising money and sending Mike around the state to smile and shake hands … and hoping nothing changes between now and the filing deadline in April 2014. Yes, the GOP primary voters probably still remember Mike. They probably still like Mike (and who doesn’t), but to quote Peggy Lee, “Is That All There Is?”
- Where’s the Tea Party candidate in 2014? Some folks think the Weiland candidacy puts more pressure on Kristi Noem to run. I think it’s irrelevant. It’s clear from how the Noem organization was set up for 2014 that she’s been hunting for a Senate nomination because she believes she’s earned it. The recent observations that she was a rubberstamp legislator for the Rounds spend, spend, spend agenda, which disarms her critique of Rounds, is nonsense in a primary where the right wing is the large voice. Evidence shows Rounds ran up a debt when he left office, and Kristi served as a “good Republican” who fell in line and followed orders, just like Rounds did when he was a state senator and senate leader. What GOP primary voters are shopping for is “who’s gonna rip Obama a new one?”, and only Kristi as a relevant record to show those voters. If I were working for Kristi, I’d take my sweet time filing for the Senate race, but working furiously piling up national donors, Tea Party surrogates and anti-Obama votes and messaging to clearly demonstrate who’s the 800-pound gorilla in this primary race. To quote Carly Simon: “Anticipation!”
- What are voters going to shop for after the June 2014 primary is done and the smoke clears? If you think it’s a 100 percent GOP congressional delegation, think again. This is a state that is massively dependent on federal largesse, and the budget wars in Congress are making that very clear to seniors, veterans, farmers and ranchers, city and county administrators, women, Lewis & Clark supporters and many others. Do South Dakotans want to elect a delegation whose only mission is to be obstructionists in Congress? Or is taking a different path more palatable? I think people will want balance in their relationship with Washington instead of a pack of right wing ideologues, and they will remember that what they liked best about Tim Johnson is that he never forgot who sent him to Washington and what his job was to serve South Dakota’s people and economy.
- The seat in the 2014 is going to be Senator Tim Johnson’s seat until January 2015. Tim was never a status seeker in Congress. He chose his battles wisely and he ran a dependable, focused office. He retired without wearing out his welcome. The Senate seat in the 2014 election will ultimately reflect Tim Johnson’s legacy, and I think the person who will have the last word on what voters will be shopping for in 2014 will be Tim Johnson. And the last thing Tim would allow is for South Dakota to be represented by yet another obstructionist because it guarantees South Dakota will have absolutely no voice with the White House or the Senate leadership.
This is going to be a very different, unique election. That’s not the view from the University of Virginia and the echo chamber, but from South Dakota.
Nick Nemec
2013.05.13
As usual Rick gives spot on analysis.
mike
2013.05.13
The Dems blew it. Big time.
Rounds gets a cake walk.
mike
2013.05.13
Kristi will look like a complete opportunist is she gets in now after all the tough Dem competition sits it out.
I think that I might speak for most South Dakotans in saying that it is May of 2013 and the election season is long enough already. The LAST thing we need to hear about this summer is a bunch of politicians telling us how great and wonderful they are. That can easily wait until later on this Fall.
Rick
2013.05.13
I don't disagree with you Michael. People don't like partisan campaigns and the shallow soundbites and 30-second ads. This summer may, indeed, be relatively sleepy. I don't think there is any rush for Kristi to start thumping the Rounds record, and I don't expect there will be much noise coming from the Democrats. The action will be fast and furious below the surface. The x factor is when the ton of money will pour in from Rove's secret corporate donors to destroy the Democratic candidate(s). I predict those ads will start by July.
What's going to be interesting in this election is the timing of who jumps in and when they do so, and who reacts to the new campaign and how they react. It won't resemble any other election we've seen.
I want them to get their viewpoints across and then let me decide. I cannot tell you how many times we have been on the receiving end of annoying robocalls. The person that calls the most I will NOT vote for.
G-Man
2013.05.13
Well, now I'm convinced that Mike Rounds (although, I do not believe is the right man for the job) will end up being the man that gets the job. Unfortunately, it appears it will be US Senator Mike Rounds, come January 2015.
G-Man
2013.05.13
Thanks for the disheartening news Cory. Kudos to your site is where I received it first. But, I can understand and respect Steph's decision not to run.
MC
2013.05.13
Rick is right on the money. I suspect most 'candidates' will spend the summer quietly building their networks, lining up donors. getting the right people in the right places. Maybe getting some endorsements. The campaign won't really kick in to high gear until after Jan. Meanwhile there will be some give and pull. just relax for now and enjoy the cruise.
G-Man
2013.05.13
MC, I guess we'll see. But, the Dems need a moderate player like Steph was or they are toast.
G-Man
2013.05.13
...And I don't say that with glee. I say that with genuine concern.
Mike, G-Man, we've only heard one skinny lady sing this morning. We're nowhere near the fat lady's aria. Rick gives a very reasonable explanation of how much more remains to be determined. This race is just beginning.
Here's my hopeful scenario: Weiland jumps in now to build name and war chest among Dems near and far. He quietly establishes his progressive cred among those who need to hear it right now. He makes Dems confident that he can handle the job and gets any other eager candidates focusing on the House, Gov's chair, statewide races, and key legislative seats. (Candidate Weiland, if you're reading, this is part of your job!) If he has a primary, he fights for the base the same way Rounds will have to against Noem, Nelson, Napoli, Kirby, etc. Then next June, he starts making the hard pitch for the Indies. With Johnson's help (yes, Tim, you still have work to do), he can get that center.
Jenny, I appreciate that vote of confidence. I'm a little busy right now, lots of time on the road that would make it hard for me to serve my district effectively. But let's keep ears open for good candidates. A good ticket won't just happen; we Dems will build it by encouraging and supporting smart Dems.
G-Man
2013.05.13
Weiland will be a "sacrificial lamb" candidate AGAIN (Third Time).
G-Man
2013.05.13
Thune beat Weiland in his first House Race.
G-Man
2013.05.13
Thune v. Weiland 1996 and Thune won.
grudznick
2013.05.13
Mr. H, in your highbrow world what do they call the combination of rationalization, exasperation and desperation contained in your above post?
grudznick
2013.05.13
All this talk about moderate Dems and how young Ms. Herseth polarizes the uber libby fringe makes me think that the Stacey N/Corey H mingled fringe ticket just might be their only chance.
I could even support The Mingled Fringe.
G-Man
2013.05.13
Cory, if you actually want to run for office, can I offer a friendly suggestion? Come to Oregon, your chances will improve significantly out here.
G-Man
2013.05.13
In Oregon, the Dems rule and the GOP is almost extinct. LOL The flip-side of SD.
grudznick
2013.05.13
Perhaps Mr. Nelson should go to Oregon and start a Mingled Fringe out there. It is an option that I am just sayin...
Grudz, I don't feel desperate. I'm looking at our past performance, looking at what hasn't happened, and offering a rational path toward making it happen. I'm not positing any probabilities, and I'm not saying it would be easy; I'm just saying the above is a logical route that Weiland, Nesselhuf, and friends could follow.
G-Man, I appreciate the friendly suggestion. But what's the fun of running where it's easy? Maybe Oregon and South Dakota need an exchange program between legislatures.
While I'm thinking of it, G, do the Oregon Dems exert anything like the one-party rule of the SDGOP? And does that one-party rule create the same problems in Salem that we see in Pierre?
Winston
2013.05.13
The ball is in Noem's court. If she runs for the Senate, Weiland has a shot and Brendan will probably be our next US Representative. If Noem stays in the House, then the SD Democratic elected Party leadership will consist of the District 15 Democratic Legislators in January of 2015 and the Hunoff family.
2014 will not be a Democratic year, it will be a neutral year at best for Dems, which means the Democratic message will not resonate with the voters. Obama fatigue and the right-wing rumor mill fear-mongering concerns over the implementation of ObamaCare will all work in the favor of Republicans in 2014. The only real argument that Democrats will have in 2014 is that the whole "Sequestration" debacle is the cause of the present slowing of our economy, but even many Democrats have been enablers to that whole fiasco.
The Johnson camp and legacy cannot manage, and thus help along, the SDDP in the months to come. In recent months the Johnson camp has sent many confusing messages to the electorate and especially SD Dems. Its recent involvement in the nuclear exchange with the Sandlin camp proves that the melt down has begun. I hope I am wrong, but the death last Fall of our esteem George McGovern, I am afraid, was a precursor to the end of the modern South Dakota Democratic Congressional Party which was founded and once led by George McGovern himself.
G-Man
2013.05.14
Grudznick, LOL, the OR GOP is the "mingled" fringe out here! LOL
G-Man
2013.05.14
Take SD Politics & flip it around: you got Oregon.
G-Man
2013.05.14
Cory, to answer your question: YES. The Democrats have a solid grip on power in Salem as the Republicans do in Pierre. In Oregon, the Republicans can only win in the sparsley populated rural areas. The Willamette Valley is the population and electoral power base of the Beaver State. I know because I live in Eugene and it's in the Valley. Portland and Salem are also in the Valley (where about 75% of the state's population resides). The moderate Republican Party of McCall, Hatfield, and Packwood is gone. Today's Oregon GOP is very, very, very Tea Party. Until the Republicans in Oregon come back the middle, the very Liberal Democrats will continue to rule and dominate everything here.
larry kurtz
2014.08.07
Brian Schweitzer has chosen pecuniary security over public service, too.
You can't forget about Scott. Of course Cory, you could make run for the office yourself.
Too bad. I'm completely unexcited about Rick Weiland's third go around.
I was kind of looking forward to a head t head debate between Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Stace Nelson.
Take another look at Rick Weiland Rorschach. Give him a chance. The alternative is bad.
You guys need some fresh young blood. This is to the point of embarassment almost. Where are all the young Dems, leaving SD?
MC, I would love to see that debate, too. Think 2018. Maybe you can watch Stace and Stephanie duke it out... and then watch me tackle Steph's ticket-mate in the Lt. Gov. debates. (Nelson-Heidelberger 2018: the Fusion ticket! :-D )
Jenny, I do agree that we could use a strong new generation, working together with the old hands of the party to put together a good 2014 ticket. Maybe we can get R to jump in and bring some excitement?
Cory, you are the one that needs to run. Like I said, you have the name recognition, the intelligence to hold your own in any kind of debate, and your fan club. You aren't getting any younger! ;) Come on, Cory!
I'm implying Heidelberger should run for State House, not US Senate.
I saw David Montgomery's sophomoric "news" article in today's Argus pooh-poohing the Weiland candidacy as not being the "heavyweight" that SHS is, under the page 1 headline "Analysts don't see Weiland as major factor for Senate." Gee, I thought, who are these analysts? Turns out it was only one analyst, Larry Sabato, director of Center for Politics at University of Virginia. Gee, I thought, it looks like all an Argus writer needs to do to generate a hit on a candidate is look to the echo chamber to retrieve the spin they want for their political narrative. In this case, Montgomery's narrative is "Mike Rounds is the inevitable winner of this election.”
I trust my perceptions of the evolving U.S. Senate race, and there are some truths which guide my opinion of what's really going on:
- This race is in its infancy. Hell, it’s hardly a zygote! The exit of Brendan Johnson and SHS returns the entire election for both parties into a pile of unshaped clay. The emergence of Rick Weiland is not to be taken lightly. He has a message, a personality and a list of achievements that are very suitable for winning a Senate race here in South Dakota. I guarantee you the RSCC isn’t taking it lightly and is working overtime “training” shallow reporters on all the dirt (real and tin foil hat fantasy) they can scrape up on Weiland. Marginalizing the Democrat in this Senate race, whether it was Brendan Johnson, Tim Johnson, SHS, Weiland or anyone else, has been the obvious narrative prescribed to reporters by the RSCC. Reporters who dumb enough to buy those apples need to stop shopping for apples. The 2014 Senate race is going to be a very different experience.
- The Rounds candidacy is deep and formidable, but it is showing its limits. It has stirred interest, but not much beyond the usual suspects of whom we know to be real Mike Rounds supporters and those who enjoyed the mutual back scratching to from his old days in the Capitol. The campaign is raising money, but similarly it is not raising money beyond the usual suspects, and it is not raising the kind of money that would excite national groups. If I were working for Mike, I’d keep raising money and sending Mike around the state to smile and shake hands … and hoping nothing changes between now and the filing deadline in April 2014. Yes, the GOP primary voters probably still remember Mike. They probably still like Mike (and who doesn’t), but to quote Peggy Lee, “Is That All There Is?”
- Where’s the Tea Party candidate in 2014? Some folks think the Weiland candidacy puts more pressure on Kristi Noem to run. I think it’s irrelevant. It’s clear from how the Noem organization was set up for 2014 that she’s been hunting for a Senate nomination because she believes she’s earned it. The recent observations that she was a rubberstamp legislator for the Rounds spend, spend, spend agenda, which disarms her critique of Rounds, is nonsense in a primary where the right wing is the large voice. Evidence shows Rounds ran up a debt when he left office, and Kristi served as a “good Republican” who fell in line and followed orders, just like Rounds did when he was a state senator and senate leader. What GOP primary voters are shopping for is “who’s gonna rip Obama a new one?”, and only Kristi as a relevant record to show those voters. If I were working for Kristi, I’d take my sweet time filing for the Senate race, but working furiously piling up national donors, Tea Party surrogates and anti-Obama votes and messaging to clearly demonstrate who’s the 800-pound gorilla in this primary race. To quote Carly Simon: “Anticipation!”
- What are voters going to shop for after the June 2014 primary is done and the smoke clears? If you think it’s a 100 percent GOP congressional delegation, think again. This is a state that is massively dependent on federal largesse, and the budget wars in Congress are making that very clear to seniors, veterans, farmers and ranchers, city and county administrators, women, Lewis & Clark supporters and many others. Do South Dakotans want to elect a delegation whose only mission is to be obstructionists in Congress? Or is taking a different path more palatable? I think people will want balance in their relationship with Washington instead of a pack of right wing ideologues, and they will remember that what they liked best about Tim Johnson is that he never forgot who sent him to Washington and what his job was to serve South Dakota’s people and economy.
- The seat in the 2014 is going to be Senator Tim Johnson’s seat until January 2015. Tim was never a status seeker in Congress. He chose his battles wisely and he ran a dependable, focused office. He retired without wearing out his welcome. The Senate seat in the 2014 election will ultimately reflect Tim Johnson’s legacy, and I think the person who will have the last word on what voters will be shopping for in 2014 will be Tim Johnson. And the last thing Tim would allow is for South Dakota to be represented by yet another obstructionist because it guarantees South Dakota will have absolutely no voice with the White House or the Senate leadership.
This is going to be a very different, unique election. That’s not the view from the University of Virginia and the echo chamber, but from South Dakota.
As usual Rick gives spot on analysis.
The Dems blew it. Big time.
Rounds gets a cake walk.
Kristi will look like a complete opportunist is she gets in now after all the tough Dem competition sits it out.
I think that I might speak for most South Dakotans in saying that it is May of 2013 and the election season is long enough already. The LAST thing we need to hear about this summer is a bunch of politicians telling us how great and wonderful they are. That can easily wait until later on this Fall.
I don't disagree with you Michael. People don't like partisan campaigns and the shallow soundbites and 30-second ads. This summer may, indeed, be relatively sleepy. I don't think there is any rush for Kristi to start thumping the Rounds record, and I don't expect there will be much noise coming from the Democrats. The action will be fast and furious below the surface. The x factor is when the ton of money will pour in from Rove's secret corporate donors to destroy the Democratic candidate(s). I predict those ads will start by July.
What's going to be interesting in this election is the timing of who jumps in and when they do so, and who reacts to the new campaign and how they react. It won't resemble any other election we've seen.
I want them to get their viewpoints across and then let me decide. I cannot tell you how many times we have been on the receiving end of annoying robocalls. The person that calls the most I will NOT vote for.
Well, now I'm convinced that Mike Rounds (although, I do not believe is the right man for the job) will end up being the man that gets the job. Unfortunately, it appears it will be US Senator Mike Rounds, come January 2015.
Thanks for the disheartening news Cory. Kudos to your site is where I received it first. But, I can understand and respect Steph's decision not to run.
Rick is right on the money. I suspect most 'candidates' will spend the summer quietly building their networks, lining up donors. getting the right people in the right places. Maybe getting some endorsements. The campaign won't really kick in to high gear until after Jan. Meanwhile there will be some give and pull. just relax for now and enjoy the cruise.
MC, I guess we'll see. But, the Dems need a moderate player like Steph was or they are toast.
...And I don't say that with glee. I say that with genuine concern.
Mike, G-Man, we've only heard one skinny lady sing this morning. We're nowhere near the fat lady's aria. Rick gives a very reasonable explanation of how much more remains to be determined. This race is just beginning.
Here's my hopeful scenario: Weiland jumps in now to build name and war chest among Dems near and far. He quietly establishes his progressive cred among those who need to hear it right now. He makes Dems confident that he can handle the job and gets any other eager candidates focusing on the House, Gov's chair, statewide races, and key legislative seats. (Candidate Weiland, if you're reading, this is part of your job!) If he has a primary, he fights for the base the same way Rounds will have to against Noem, Nelson, Napoli, Kirby, etc. Then next June, he starts making the hard pitch for the Indies. With Johnson's help (yes, Tim, you still have work to do), he can get that center.
Jenny, I appreciate that vote of confidence. I'm a little busy right now, lots of time on the road that would make it hard for me to serve my district effectively. But let's keep ears open for good candidates. A good ticket won't just happen; we Dems will build it by encouraging and supporting smart Dems.
Weiland will be a "sacrificial lamb" candidate AGAIN (Third Time).
Thune beat Weiland in his first House Race.
Thune v. Weiland 1996 and Thune won.
Mr. H, in your highbrow world what do they call the combination of rationalization, exasperation and desperation contained in your above post?
All this talk about moderate Dems and how young Ms. Herseth polarizes the uber libby fringe makes me think that the Stacey N/Corey H mingled fringe ticket just might be their only chance.
I could even support The Mingled Fringe.
Cory, if you actually want to run for office, can I offer a friendly suggestion? Come to Oregon, your chances will improve significantly out here.
In Oregon, the Dems rule and the GOP is almost extinct. LOL The flip-side of SD.
Perhaps Mr. Nelson should go to Oregon and start a Mingled Fringe out there. It is an option that I am just sayin...
Grudz, I don't feel desperate. I'm looking at our past performance, looking at what hasn't happened, and offering a rational path toward making it happen. I'm not positing any probabilities, and I'm not saying it would be easy; I'm just saying the above is a logical route that Weiland, Nesselhuf, and friends could follow.
G-Man, I appreciate the friendly suggestion. But what's the fun of running where it's easy? Maybe Oregon and South Dakota need an exchange program between legislatures.
While I'm thinking of it, G, do the Oregon Dems exert anything like the one-party rule of the SDGOP? And does that one-party rule create the same problems in Salem that we see in Pierre?
The ball is in Noem's court. If she runs for the Senate, Weiland has a shot and Brendan will probably be our next US Representative. If Noem stays in the House, then the SD Democratic elected Party leadership will consist of the District 15 Democratic Legislators in January of 2015 and the Hunoff family.
2014 will not be a Democratic year, it will be a neutral year at best for Dems, which means the Democratic message will not resonate with the voters. Obama fatigue and the right-wing rumor mill fear-mongering concerns over the implementation of ObamaCare will all work in the favor of Republicans in 2014. The only real argument that Democrats will have in 2014 is that the whole "Sequestration" debacle is the cause of the present slowing of our economy, but even many Democrats have been enablers to that whole fiasco.
The Johnson camp and legacy cannot manage, and thus help along, the SDDP in the months to come. In recent months the Johnson camp has sent many confusing messages to the electorate and especially SD Dems. Its recent involvement in the nuclear exchange with the Sandlin camp proves that the melt down has begun. I hope I am wrong, but the death last Fall of our esteem George McGovern, I am afraid, was a precursor to the end of the modern South Dakota Democratic Congressional Party which was founded and once led by George McGovern himself.
Grudznick, LOL, the OR GOP is the "mingled" fringe out here! LOL
Take SD Politics & flip it around: you got Oregon.
Cory, to answer your question: YES. The Democrats have a solid grip on power in Salem as the Republicans do in Pierre. In Oregon, the Republicans can only win in the sparsley populated rural areas. The Willamette Valley is the population and electoral power base of the Beaver State. I know because I live in Eugene and it's in the Valley. Portland and Salem are also in the Valley (where about 75% of the state's population resides). The moderate Republican Party of McCall, Hatfield, and Packwood is gone. Today's Oregon GOP is very, very, very Tea Party. Until the Republicans in Oregon come back the middle, the very Liberal Democrats will continue to rule and dominate everything here.
Brian Schweitzer has chosen pecuniary security over public service, too.