M. Michael Rounds's hiring of Dick Wadhams as consultant to his U.S. Senate campaign tells me four things:
- Team Rounds's embrace of Wadhams's politics of personal destruction demonstrates a commitment to making me use the s's combination far more than I want to.
- Team Rounds apparently thinks Wadhams's effectiveness back in 2004 in getting John Thune elected outweighs his more recent failures in Virginia and Colorado.
- Team Rounds is hoping Kristi Noem wears the same blinders and steers clear of tangling with this brawler.
- Team Rounds will shortly convene a faux-blogstorm like the one he had Thune's paid advisors confabulate in 2004.
Now, if we can just keep Team Weiland from hiring Lowell Feld....
The best thing that could happen is for Noem to run for Senate. Rounds beats Noem. The Noem staffers are unemployed and searching for a new job where they actually have to WORK. Noem is vanquished from SD politics and can go be a lobbyist with Stephanie for a while (obviously Noem won't be going back to ranch or farm like she talks about.)
All I know is that Noem needs to go one way or the other. Brendan Johnson should run against her!
"Noem is vanquished" ..LOL
During the 2004 campaign, the Daschle campaign staff had what they called a war room in the campaign office. It feature bulletin boards of clippings of newspaper ads and articles, blog print outs, and screen shots of tv ads and appearances. One screen shot was of a tv debate in which Thune accused Daschle of giving aid and comfort to the enemy and Daschle was looking at him with this incredulous expression. It was apparent that Daschle was struggling to restrain his anger, and he did. Thune and Wadhams churned out agitprop on how Daschle was a citizen of D.C., not S.D., and cast his success as a betrayal of the good people, and went after his family with that "beauty queen" motif. Many staff members were frustrated because they wanted to emphasize how Thune's dutiful recitation of the Wadhams script was evidence of a lack of intellect and character. They still do. And among real campaign directors, the campaign ranks alongside Saxby Chamblis' libel attack of Max Cleland in Georgia for the depths to which some politicians will sink. But answering the Thunes in kind sacrifices great measures of integrity and credibility as a negotiator. For those who attain leadership status among partisans, those qualities are essential to performing the job of statesman legislator. When young campaign staffers became frustrated that Tom Daschle did not answer Thune in kind, some old hands in politics advised them that you can lose much more important things in such a campaign than an election. And that rule had much to do with potential candidates declining to run against John Thune in 2010.
If one were to put up a record of Thune's and Noem's legislative accomplishments, pronouncements on issues, and their general performance, one would get a portrait of the feckless who merely read scripts provided for them.
Wadhams had his own problems as GOP chair in Colorado. In 2011, he decided not to run for the chair for a third term. He was frustrated, as Rove is now, with the tea party element. In a memo printed in the Denver Post, he said, "However, I have tired of those who are obsessed with seeing conspiracies around every corner and who have terribly misguided notions of what the role of the state party is while saying “uniting conservatives” is all that is needed to win competitive races across the state." His record in South Dakota of constant character assassination gives a clear idea of what he thinks is required to win competitive races.
Rick Weiland is seasoned in real campaigning, not merely kibbitzing in blog comments. He knows what he will face. The question is whether winning an election is worth the risk to intelligence and character that we know the GOP is ready and willing to mount.
Many people in the Democratic Party would rather keep the integrity of character than win an election in such circumstances.
I wish Rounds would stick to selling insurance.
Dave, very well framed analysis of 2004 and Wadhams' character and tactics. The Tea Party was a crazy but useful tool in 2010 but got in the way too much in 2012. The GOP top operatives should find it useful again in 2014. It's unruly because its energy is all about hate and anger, mainly at the fact that a black guy beat their white guy in 2008 and again in 2012. Making strategic use of all that hate and anger is like herding cats to campaign managers who normally manage well-disciplined, clean cut, white GOP operatives. Again, I think 2014 is going to play out like no other election in this state, and now the addition of Wadhams guarantees the Rounds campaign will play it hard, fast and vicious against all comers. I think the hire was as much a message to Noem as it was to lock in a win in November 2014. I agree that Weiland is a skilled, experienced campaigner with excellent people skills who knows what kind of assaults he'll receive from the Wadhams campaign. Rounds must really want to win this, so it will be interesting to see how much Wadhams will control his style. Thune was a fairly young guy when he ran in 2002 and 2004. Rounds is an older dog who has an established persona. So, will it be nice Mike or another Wadhams junkyard dog?
I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I doubt this will be an either/or situation between smiling Mike and growling Waldhams
In this post Citizen's United World, Rounds can smile and retool his insurance sales pitches. Walhams can. with a wink and a nod, "not coordinate" with outside groups who will hire the "scary voice" guy and the "sincerce mom voice" woman to do voice overs about how the evils that will ensue if Rounds's eventual opponent is elected.
Rounds hired Wadhams because it's one more tool in the Thune world.
Noem hired Brasell because it was one more tool in the Thune world.
They both are trying to curry favor with Thune and the problem for Noem is that she only has Thune tools. Rounds has his own set and they are more prepared than any of Noem's.
Rounds is going to be tough.
The Wadham choice was a signal for Noem to back-off. Regardless of whether you believe Weiland's candidacy is here to stay (Senator Johnson hints that it might not be.... unless you can fantasize a Weiland v. B Johnson race... Not!) the brilliance of the Weiland candidacy is that it potentially opens a House seat for Brendan, that is if Noem jumps ship for a Senate seat because of the Weiland candidacy.
But then the question becomes...."What's more important?.... Brendan's political future or holding the Johnson Senate seat for the Democrats?" This a course assumes that it will be hard for Weiland to beat Rounds, which I think is a safe bet.
Wadhams signals Thune is fully on board with Rounds. John & Mike is what is envisioned here to become the next Tom & Tim Senate Team for the State. Daschle helped Johnson and Thune will help Rounds.
The SDDP is watching the last Congressional Seat they hold on to slowly slip out of their hands. Not a good signal for them. After this, what do they have left?
You are correct Winston. Much better idea for Brendan to run for the House if Noem goes after the Senate Seat. Of course, same thing goes for Stephanie.
Bree that is a thoughtful statement. If there is a contested GOP primary then I would put money on Stephanie taking another look at the senate race and the DSCC would be calling again.
Brendan would be almost a shoe in for that open house seat and Stephanie would be a very very formidable opponent against a bruised Rounds and probably in the drivers seat against Noem since she already leads Noem in polling.
G-Man I agree with you that behind the scenes the Thune staff is coalescing around Rounds. They do not want to serve the next 20 years in the senate with Stephanie or Brendan.
Why haven't we seen Brendan Johnson come out with something to do with the wire tapping or IRS scandal? That would set him up for life in this state as a non partisan Dem.
There is an emerging theory that SHS, BJ, and Weiland are all working in concert. Hoping that Noem runs against Rounds, thus opening the House for Brendan and giving Sandlin (after Weiland bows out) a Republican opponent (most likely Rounds) who has been beaten-up in a Republican Senate primary battle. If it works, its brilliant. Else, how should we address him?.... as Senator Mike or Senator Michael Rounds?
The latter concern can be averted, however, if there is a gentlemen's (and lady's) understanding that with out Noem entering the Senate race Weiland would still drop-out, but to whose favor?..... Sandlin or B Johnson? That's the only problem with this overall theory. I cannot imagine Team Johnson putting themselves in a position where Brendan would not be a candidate for at least the House if not the Senate....and would Sandlin? Unless she was convinced she would have to face Weiland in a primary if she did not cooperate.... the speculation lives on.... stay tune to 2014.
mike, I don't think Brendan is a shoe in for anything, especially considering the likely conservative boost from the IRS scandal. That same conservative boost gives Kristi an edge over Rounds especially if she gets Tea Party/Constitutionalist support. Also, Kristi vs. Stephanie is a more even footing for female voters than Rounds vs. Stephanie. Since Noem has already beaten Stephanie once and in consideration of the fact that this a non-Presidential election, and with the likely conservative boost - I wouldn't too worried about any polls at this point.
Really, a better way for the SDGOP to handle these match ups would have been to have Kristi Noem run for the Senate seat already a successful Congresswoman, and then have Rounds run for the now open House seat. That match makes more sense because Kristi would be much less likely to face a divisive primary from the conservative grassroots and would be still strong for a match up with Stephanie. For the House seat, although Rounds would be more likely to face a conservative challenger, the general election would be easier in the House race.
http://grammarist.com/spelling/shoo-in/
Don't worry. If Rounds is elected, he will continue to work for the insurance industry.
Purely from a tactical standpoint the GOP has a great thing going with Rounds for Senate, Noem for Congress and Daugaard for Governor.
It could implode and allow for the Dems to get Stephanie in the Senate race and Brendan in the House race. But as of right now the GOP has laid the perfect hand for success and it's clear by the way the top Dems are sitting on the sidelines right now.
Winston I agree with your theory.
Actually mike, I find it a very poor tactical decision to leave Rounds to face a well-funded conservative opponent. Such an opponent is guaranteed. Kristi on the other hand would be an acceptable candidate to a broad range of conservatives and would be unlikely to face such opposition.
The old joke at SDSM&T was that BHTC (in those days) had degrees in under-water basket weaving.
Rounds would be a specialist in under-water living and legislating.