Nielson Brothers Polling releases data from a new survey that finds a lot of my friends and neighbors in South Dakota are just plain wrong.
The October survey, conducted October 2–6, got 839 South Dakotans to say what they think of the partial federal government shutdown, the Affordable Care Act, and President Obama. The numbers show how far rational liberals have to go to get their point heard over partisan baloney:
...38.2 percent of South Dakota likely voters say the Republicans are most responsible for the U.S. government shutdown, while 34.9 percent give most responsibility to the Democrats, 24.3 percent see the responsibility as shared equally, and 2.5 percent are unsure.
This NBP statewide survey... also asks which elected body is “most to blame” for the shutdown. 34.7 percent of respondents say President Obama, and 31.0 percent say the House of Representatives (House), 19.1 percent say the Senate, and 15.3 percent are unsure [Nielson Brothers Polling, press release, 2013.10.10].
That's far too many people buying into the blame-the-hostage thinking the Republican Party needs voters to believe. Wake up, people! Look who's holding the gun!
A dispute over the Affordable Care Act (ACA) also known as “Obamacare,” is central in the government shutdown. 36.1 percent of respondents say they support the ACA, 54.1 percent oppose it, and 9.7 percent are unsure [NBP, 2013.10.10].
Evidently more people need to click on healthcare.gov and check the teax credits available to reduce their health insurance costs. Patience....
When asked to evaluate President Obama’s job performance, 41.0 percent of respondents approve (25.0 percent “strongly approve”; 16.0 percent “somewhat approve”), compared with 59.0 percent who disapprove (49.5 percent “strongly”; 9.4 percent “somewhat”). These numbers show no significant movement from the June 2013 NBP survey in which 41.4 percent of respondents approved of the president’s job performance [NBP, 2013.10.10].
Whew. Somedays you teach and teach and teach, and the kids still look at you as if your were crazy. I'll keep trying.
The blogosphere always gets out the methodology knives on Nielson Brothers. If there is any sign of error in this poll, perhaps it lies in the respondents self-identification on the political spectrum:
- Tea Party: 15.8%
- Conservative: 33.7%
- Moderate: 32.4%
- Liberal: 18.1%
Say what?! Nielson threw darts into a crowd in South Dakota and hit more Liberals than Teabaggers? I want to know where that crowd is!
Update 17:55 CDT: Kamikaze politics may not cost Kristi Noem her seat among mistaken South Dakotans, but Tea Party hostage-taking may crash the national GOP:
The battle over the shutdown has highlighted the cracks and fissures within the party. The party’s leadership has begun to lose control of its members in Congress. The party’s base has become increasingly shrill and is almost as disastified with the Republican leadership in Washington as it is with President Obama. New conservative groups have echoed, and taken advantage of, this sentiment by targeting Republicans identified with the leadership for defeat. And a growing group of Republican politicians, who owe their election to these groups, has carried the battle into the halls of Congress. That is spelling doom for the Republican coalition that has kept the party afloat for the last two decades [John B. Judis, "The Last Days of the GOP," New Republic, 2013.10.10].
Hang in there, Dems! South Dakota popular opinion tends to run behind the national curve.