Last updated on 2014.08.10
What might be the closest race in South Dakota's 2014 election? If Nielson Brothers' polling numbers are accurate, it could be the battle for seats in the South Dakota Senate. In its July 23–28 survey, Nielson asked voters whether they would pick the Republican or the Democrat in their district for State Senate. The results of that generic question:
- Republican: 41.9%
- Democrat: 36.7%
- undecided: 21.4%
That 5.2-point gap is barely larger than the 4.3-point margin of error. It's far smaller than the 13-, 18-, and 24-point gaps that Nielson finds Democrats Rick Weiland, Corinna Robinson, and Susan Wismer must surmount in their statewide races. And that gap is mde tighter by one very telling result: while Republicans and Democrats each line up for their own party's State Senate candidate at rates over 70% (Republican defections stand at 13%; Democratic defections are just 5%, with a much larger percentage who need to read this blog remaining undecided), Independents are breaking Democrat 3 to 2 (actual percentages: 24% R, 36% D, 40% still thinking).
Those numbers indicate that out of the 100,000 strong Indy voting bloc, Dems are getting more than an 11,000-vote advantage. If the remaining Indy unsures broke the same way, Dems would raise that edge to 18,000. If the partisan undecideds broke according to their partisan fellows' according percentages as well, the total vote count from the entire registered voting pool would be 255,000 votes for Republican State Senate candidates and 258,000 votes for Democratic State Senate candidates.
In other words, if all things were equal, South Dakota Democrats could have an advantage in State Senate races of less than one percentage point... and we could have recounts almost everywhere.
Of course, things are not equal. Republicans have drawn legislative district lines to herd Dem leaners into a few safe seats. More importantly, Nielson asked the generic question of Republican versus Democrat, not the specific question of Lederman versus Tornberg or Jensen versus Page. When voters put specific names and mostly Republican incumbent faces to that question, and when the SDGOP-Wadhams character-assassination machine gets rolling, those percentages will shift back toward the GOP's favor. And most egregiously, we Democrats have left 13 out of 35 seats unchallenged, so that's over a third of districts where we don't even get to test the Indy lean. (Republicans have left four Senate seats unchallenged.)
A number of factors put Democrats at a disadvantage in most South Dakota races. But the Nielson data on generic partisan preferences in State Senate races indicate that Indies like us and that with their help, we can make the battle for a Senate majority a fair fight. Let's take those numbers as cause for optimism, and let's fight hard for those Senate wins!
Corinna Robinson is running a campaign?
Wouldn't know it from what we've seen in the Rapid area. I thought she'd be a lot more visible.... Can't run a campaign in "stealth mode". Noem needs to feel some heat.
Her resume looked good to me when the pre-announcement came out ages ago in the Journal, but haven't heard "boo" since really.
Where you been Danno? Our Rapid City office has been open for months: 522 7th Street, Suite 201, on the same city block as the Alex Johnson Hotel. We strive to send out bi-weekly media alerts to speak of events and travel; however, the ads do cost $ so they are not as frequent. I will also address the Press Club on August 29th at the Ramkota, 1130a.m. I hit the road tomorrow for quite a few days so view my website for updates too.
Darn it, my "response timed out" and I lost my reply. Trying again below.
I listen to the radio a lot, (haven't heard anything), no billboards, no bright shiny opinion articles in the journal, no mailers, no NPR spotlights on the morning or afternoon programs, no volunteer calls that I've gotten, so I've not heard a message above the background noise of everyday life. I do admit I rarely watch TV.
Believe me, I like your resume. I very much would like someone to give Noem some heat. I'd like to think I'm at least a little more aware of my political surroundings than the typical "Joe Voter", but I've not heard your message. I'm not trying to be mean, just honest. And this coming from a "moderate republican", (a breed almost as rare as a blue-dog democrat nowdays)...... I don't believe Mz. Noem is representing my view at least.
I have no advice to give as I've not been near a campaign, but I wish you the best and "hope to hear more from you"... (grin)...
I have had those "response timed out" and messages about being "too busy." What I do is use the return arrow on the top tool box, "copy" my comment, then click on the topic heading of "recent comments" (that activates the web-site again,) then scroll to the bottom of the page, then "paste" my comment into the blank area. Then click "Post Your Comment." Usually works for me.
Any chance voters here are starting to see the light? Naw, no way, won't happen. Sure would be fun to see the looks on all those republican faces if they did.
Tim,
My point is no one will see the light unless the message is heard, and it can take a great deal of effort to be heard, above the static of todays world. Broadcast TV is no longer effective, sadly. That is why I was nudging Corrina.
Thanks for sharing this information, Cory!
Call those Indies, Robin! Find them, talk 'em up, and get them to vote!
robin, I was gonna say, haven't heard anything about your campaign either...