One odd result I noticed in last week's Survey USA poll was the relatively low support for Initiated Measure 18, the minimum-wage increase, among young voters. Statistically minded reader Bill Fleming noted that young voters (the 18–34 set) made up only 16% of Survey USA's 510-voter sample. Poll about 80 voters, and you get a margin of error around 11%, not a bankable result.
Enter the Dakota Poll, which this week releases its second poll of young South Dakota adults' attitudes this year. Dakota Poll had Denver-based RBI Strategies and Research survey 401 South Dakotans aged 18 to 35 between August 20 and 24. Their margin of error is 4.89%, a clearer read of our rising generation's attitudes.
The Dakota Poll didn't ask about the minimum wage in its February poll. They posed that question this time and found results aligning with other poll results: Initiated Measure 18 will pass and pass big:
By a margin of 65% to 21%, young adults support raising the minimum wage in South Dakota from $7.25 to $8.50/hour. Even when asked if they would support a more extreme measure to raise the minimum wage to $10.10/hour, 56% of respondents said that they would support the raise while only 29% said they would oppose it. By a margin of 70% to 17%, young South Dakotans said they favored raising teacher salaries “by at least 20%” [Dakota Poll, press release, 2014.09.15].
The Dakota Poll links this concern about wages with an anxiety identified in both the February and August results:
These results reflect an overwhelming concern among young adults that “jobs, wages and opportunities” are the major reason why they would be forced to leave a state where they would otherwise like to build their lives (Q5-Q6).
...On broad themes of economic development results from the August, 2014 Dakota Poll were consistent with results from February, 2014. Young South Dakotans desire to stay in the state. 33% said that they considered “Family and friends” the primary reason to stay and build their lives in South Dakota. And yet, 54% listed the lack of access to “jobs/wages/opportunities” as the primary reason to leave the state. The next highest reason listed by respondents was “education” at 8% [Dakota Poll, 2014.09.15].
I'm reading the full Dakota Poll results and crosstabs this morning—stay tuned for more analysis on this slice of South Dakota's demographic pie.
Is this the age group driving unaffiliated voter registration numbers, Cory?
The toilet wants to jettison Lora Hubbel from the earth hater party calling her a member of the Independence Party: funny.
Dakota Poll did not draw its respondents from voter registration lists. But we did ask respondents if they were registered to vote. 93% answered yes (Q9). 34% self-identified as Democrats or Independents leaning Democrat. 41% self identified as Republicans or Independents leaning Republican. 21% self-identified as straight up Independent (Q52). 21% self-ientified as supporters of the tea party, which is slightly lower than the population at large (Q53).
Looking at poll crosstabs (is that what they call it?) is always helpful, to determine if the makeup of the group surveyed is representative. However, I really have to question the claim that 21% of the general voting public are Tea Party Republicans. That's a dubiously high percentage of Teabaggers, and I'd need some reliable stats to back that up. (I'm willing to be proven wrong, but I'm not buying that assertion without proof.)
Also, is that 21% of all people surveyed, or merely 21% of the people who self-identified as "Independent" but also incongruously claimed to be "Tea Party" Republicans? If anything, it seems that Republicans were oversampled in that survey, since it apparently included both standard-issue Republicans and hardcore, right-wing "Tea Party" Republicans, while treating them erroneously as separate groups.
Some clarity, here. We did not define tea party supporters as "Tea Party Republicans". That's your characterization. We have found that in the general public not all Republicans are tea party supporters and not all tea party supporters are Republicans. In past polls +/-27% of registered voters in South Dakota self-describe as tea party supporters. Dakota Poll is not a political/campaign poll. We were not seeking to survey the electorate. We didn't over or under sample "Republicans". We sampled 18-35 year olds. 21% self-described as supporters of the tea party movement.
Is the poll online yet?
Thanks for the clarification, Sam. Appreciated.
For the record, though, I'm still confused about the way your poll numbers break down. The categories that people self-identified seem to overlap and not add up. I appreciate that you don't intend to be a "political/campaign poll," but it's helpful to understand the breakdown. For example, if 80% of the people you surveyed self-identified as Democrats, readers would rightly suspect the results to be skewed.
Also, I agree that not all Republicans are Tea Party types. However, you can safely say that Teabaggers are Republicans. They don't like the old branding and like to style themselves as "independents," but they vote for Republicans about as reliably as you can get. They're the hardcore Republican base, after all.