Oh, those crazy kids—er, young voters age 18 to 34. The September 3–7 Survey USA poll finds South Dakota's youngest voters not doing what you might expect.
They aren't supporting Democrats, at least in any notably greater numbers than other age groups.
| U.S. Senate | All | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ |
| Mike Rounds (R) | 39% | 40% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 42% | 37% |
| Rick Weiland (D) | 28% | 30% | 14% | 33% | 32% | 20% | 33% |
| Larry Pressler (I) | 25% | 13% | 34% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% |
| Gordon Howie (I) | 3% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Undecided | 5% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 3% |
| U.S. House | All | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ |
| Kristi Noem (R) | 53% | 56% | 55% | 53% | 51% | 55% | 52% |
| Corinna Robinson (D) | 40% | 36% | 37% | 42% | 43% | 36% | 42% |
| Undecided | 6% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% |
| S.D. Governor | All | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ |
| Dennis Daugaard (R) | 54% | 52% | 53% | 55% | 54% | 52% | 54% |
| Susan Wismer (D) | 34% | 33% | 32% | 37% | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| Michael Myers (I) | 6% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 6% |
| Undecided | 7% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 6% |
None of the Democrats enjoys an advantage among voters age 18–34. Dems' support among younger voters does not differ from their support among older voters by more than the margin of error, meaning you're as likely to spill your drink on a Weiland or Wismer voter at bingo night as you are at the Icon Lounge.
Perhaps those numbers support David Newquist's thesis that lots of young Democrats leave South Dakota, leaving behind a young cohort that votes pretty much like everyone else.
One twitch among the not quite as young as we used to be voters: check out the Weiland–Pressler numbers in the 35–49 set. That group tanks for Weiland, just 14%, but peaks for Pressler at 34%, better than the numbers Pressler scores in the over-50 crowd. Hmmm... we 35-to-49ers are the teenagers of the Reagan-Pressler years. Maybe we are more subject to nostalgia than we want to admit (Larry! Start playing the 80s mix tape at your campaign events! Journey! The Bangles!).
On the issues, the youngest voters place their highest priority on the economy/economic development. At the state level, they are more interested in same-sex marriage than other age groups, but they give significantly less of a darn about Medicaid. Survey USA didn't ask about the importance of environmental issues in general, but the one specific environmental issue they mentioned, uranium mining in the Black Hills, hardly pinged on anyone's radar. Neither did EB-5—nertz!
The youngsters throw us one more curveball on the minimum wage:
| IM18: Raise Minimum Wage | All | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ |
| Yes | 61% | 41% | 59% | 67% | 66% | 52% | 66% |
| No | 22% | 41% | 20% | 17% | 18% | 29% | 17% |
| Not Certain | 18% | 18% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 20% | 16% |
The conventional wisdom says that young people are more likely to make minimum wage and thus should be more likely to support an increase. But while IM 18 gets overwhelming support from the other three age groups, the 18–34 crowd is evenly split, 41% to 41%. It looks like we need to give these young voters some remedial classes in productivity and economic justice.
Aside from progressive youngsters bailing on South Dakota,the only other reasonable explanation would be that not having a minimum wage is actually good for teens and others because they enjoy,or at least don't mind,being poor.Maybe wingnuts have them convinced that poverty is their birthright.
http://interested-party.blogspot.com/2014/08/south-dakota-descent-no-accident.html
This is distressing. These days I am not directly exposed to that many young folks' political viewpoints. Some of the ones I have seen expressed by family and friends on facebook, however, tend to have an anti-Obama intensity, often focusing on the fear of losing gun rights, even to the extent of supporting anyone that wants to open carry in public stores and buildings.
I suspect many might listen to talk radio during the day, and perhaps have been influenced by older anti-Obama everything folks, or older NRA dittoheads.
The minimum wage split seems puzzling as one would think that youngsters are more likely to be paid minimum wage. Upon reflection, however, perhaps the reality is that many of these young folks live at the homes of their parents and can use their earnings for playthings rather than necessities. Meanwhile the older folks who support the increase are perhaps joined by those elders who find that they cannot make ends meet on SSA benefits alone. These folks have to take minimum wage jobs and could really benefit from a slight increase.
When you look at massive increases at the top and virtually nothing at the bottom,most anyone can see there is a big,big problem. OTOH,when you see people of a certain persuasion defending perpetrators of domestic violence and blaming the victims,maybe it isn't so hard to see why we have the problems we have.
In Rapid City the big box stores and fast food chains often pay slightly above minimum wage, the youngsters may feel that they are already earning above minimum and doesn't affect them.
The other thing that occurs to me that so many youngsters and oldsters for that matter, are experiencing a quiet acceptance that South Dakota will never change from its 1950's existence, apathy?
maybe Koch bros are already in our schools.
im honestly surprised [that you haven't read the Comment Moderation and Anonymity Policy yet, "NAI". Read it, then get back to me. —CAH]
Friends from Alaska tell me that this week it is possible to observe the Aurora all week long from Northern U.S. That should give Dems a boost,just don't tell wingnuts.
Cory, one of my statistician buddies pointed out that the 18-34 age sample is only 16% of the total sample. I think it works out to round 83 surveys or so. That small a sample would have a pretty big margin of error. So maybe the 41/41 thing is just statistical noise. Makes sense I suppose considering how far ahead the issue is in all the other age groups.
Good catch, Bill. Do not stare too deeply into the crosstabs.
Indeed, Bill! And even if that 41/41 reflected any sort of slack in youth support, the likely low youth turnout would wash that factor out at the polls.