Pretty soon Pat Powers is going to figure out that he shouldn't be crowing about the latest Survey USA poll. The results—commissioned by KSFY, KOTA, and AAN—show the Rounds campaign losing voters and failing to dominate, contrary to all expectations for a rich, well-known Republican in South Dakota. They show Daugaard holding steady but Wismer rising, with an opportunity to capitalize on her support for and Daugaard's opposition to the wildly popular minimum-wage ballot measure.

And then there's this expectation-buster:

In the race for secretary of state, likely voters say they prefer Republican Shantel Krebs over three other candidates. Krebs has 41 percent support and is followed by Aberdeen Democrat Angelia Schultz at 31 percent. Seventeen percent of those surveyed say they're still undecided while 7 percent would vote for Constitution Party candidate Lori Stacey and 4 percent for Libertarian Emmett Reistroffer [Scott Waltman, "Survey South Dakota: Daugaard Enjoys Solid Support, Likely Voters Favor Wage Boost," Aberdeen American News, 2014.09.10].

Shantel Krebs has been campaigning for the Secretary of State's job for over a year. Angelia Schultz jumped in last June and still hasn't launched a full-fledged campaign. On the rare occasions when Powers bothers to post something other than GOP press releases, he works himself into a lather ridiculing Schultz with rumor and piggish insult.

But there Schultz is, just ten points behind Krebs, who just like Mike Rounds can't parlay her electric smile into majority support. Angelia, you have some undecideds to meet. Get on the trail!

Down in the margin of error, we see Consti-spiracy Party candidate Lori Stacey pulling the perhaps predictable 7% protest vote from those who don't know better. As evidence that the South Dakota Libertarians have destroyed their brand, their Secretary of State candidate Emmett Reistroffer can't even beat Stacey, pulling only 4%.

On Libs, Krebs, minimum wage, and Rounds, the September 3–7 Survey USA poll provides support for theses the Madville Times has offered and undermines narratives Dakota War College has peddled. Expect some fake analysis from Pat any moment now explaining why we can't trust Survey USA.