Easter Sunday can’t go by without Dakota War College burping up some peeps-induced indigestion. The fake-named SDGOP mouthpiece blog flogs its favorite son, Senator John Thune, as a rising star in the Romney veepstakes. In a bizarre twist, DWC ignores Thune’s own statements and my agreement therewith that Thune doesn’t want to be vice-president. Of course, it’s not so bizarre if you assume that DWC’s “Bill Clay” is really working for Thune and trying to stoke the speculation his boss quietly craves but must for appearance’s sake plausibly deny.
But let’s not go Sibster on the conspiracy theories. Let’s focus on refuting the horsehockey that DWC actually puts on the record.
DWC claims, “Thune’s name is being discussed more and more as a possible vice presidential candidate.”
English students, pay attention: we have here a stellar example of the deliberately vague passive voice. Discussed by whom? DWC points to one article that mentions his name, then fails to offer any evidence of other sources who weren’t discussing Thune’s name last month but now are burning up with John-fever.
Beyond grammatical evasion of actors, DWC commits another fluffy sin: the Thune-booster avoids any quantification of its claim. As Romney puts Santorum away, one would expect VP talk in general to increase. Maybe the chattering classes are discussing Thune more and more, but maybe they are discussing Marco Rubio or Rob Portman more and more and more.
So, in the great South Dakota blogospheric tradition of DWC just saying stuff and the Madville Times having to clear things up with facts, let’s study some numbers. First, what are the players on Intrade saying about the GOP veepstakes… with their money?
| Candidate |
Chance of Winning
GOP VP nomination
(InTrade 4/8) |
| Marco Rubio |
25.5% |
| Rob Portman |
13.9% |
| Chris Christie |
11.4% |
| Bob McDonnell |
9.0% |
| Susana Martinez |
7.8% |
| Paul Ryan |
7.5% |
| Mitch Daniels |
3.7% |
| John Thune |
2.6% |
| Bobby Jindal |
2.1% |
| Rand Paul |
1.2% |
South Dakota’s junior Senator is in eighth place on this scorecard. And if you look at the potential picks’ historical share-price charts (i.e., the amount of money folks are willing to lay on the chances of each person getting Romney’s nod), you see Rubio, McDonnell, Martinez, and Daniels showing increases over the last few months while Thune’s price has eroded. If more and more people are discussing Thune for Vice-President, they must be saying, “Don’t think so.”
But good or bad, let’s look at the volume of chatter about the above ten candidates. Let’s Google each potential VP’s name in quotes followed by “vice president” and see how many results pop up for each month this year and for April so far:
|
Google mentions with
“vice president” per time period |
|
| potential VP |
Jan 1-31 |
Feb 1-29 |
Mar
1-31 |
Apr
1-8 |
InTrade 4/8 |
| Marco Rubio |
13,600 |
29,900 |
23,100 |
21,300 |
25.5% |
| Rob Portman |
1,560 |
3,170 |
1,740 |
4,670 |
13.9% |
| Chris Christie |
9,140 |
21,000 |
11,500 |
12,100 |
11.4% |
| Bob McDonnell |
2,760 |
8,240 |
4,650 |
5,880 |
9.0% |
| Susana Martinez |
996 |
2,150 |
1,670 |
3,870 |
7.8% |
| Paul Ryan |
13,900 |
31,800 |
31,500 |
26,900 |
7.5% |
| Mitch Daniels |
4,930 |
9,680 |
4,690 |
5,820 |
3.7% |
| John Thune |
1,950 |
4,090 |
2,600 |
3,090 |
2.6% |
| Bobby Jindal |
3,000 |
6,830 |
4,270 |
6,170 |
2.1% |
| Rand Paul |
6,520 |
13,100 |
6,630 |
3,420 |
1.2% |
Those data are messy, since we’re dealing with differently sized time periods. One interesting artifact of this data: all of the potential nominees other than Rand Paul got produce more Google VP results in this first week of April than they do for all of January. That surge in chatter supports the rather obvious conclusion that as the primary battle winds down and blessed summer draws near, we will naturally hear more VP speculation.
But focus, people! Let’s look at the daily average Google mentions for each candidate within each time period:
|
average per day
Google mentions with
“vice president” |
| potential VP |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Marco Rubio |
439 |
1031 |
745 |
2663 |
| Rob Portman |
50 |
109 |
56 |
584 |
| Chris Christie |
295 |
724 |
371 |
1513 |
| Bob McDonnell |
89 |
284 |
150 |
735 |
| Susana Martinez |
32 |
74 |
54 |
484 |
| Paul Ryan |
448 |
1097 |
1016 |
3363 |
| Mitch Daniels |
159 |
334 |
151 |
728 |
| John Thune |
63 |
141 |
84 |
386 |
| Bobby Jindal |
97 |
236 |
138 |
771 |
| Rand Paul |
210 |
452 |
214 |
428 |
| median |
128 |
309 |
151 |
731 |
| mean |
188 |
448 |
298 |
1165 |
You’ll notice that in each month this year and even last week, John Thune’s VP attention has been below both the median and the mean for Intrade’s current top ten possible nominees. Even the two guys below him, Bobby Jindal and Rand Paul, have gotten more daily Google VP mentions than Thune in every time period these charts consider. And last week, Thune has gotten the least VP attention of the ten folks above. If more and more people are discussing John Thune, they aren’t doing so on Google-searchable pages.
(My Sibby-conspiracy urge strikes again: maybe that’s exactly what Thune’s Web advisors noticed. “John! We’ve gotta boost our buzz! Call Pat— er, Tony— er, Bill Clay and tell him to make up some fluff mentioning you and the vice-presidency. You know Heidelberger will tear him apart, and Heidelberger will have to say ‘John Thune’ and ‘vice president’ a half dozen times. That’ll really juice our Google juice!” Clever devils.)
Now let’s compare how these average daily results have changed over the last few months. From January to February, Web VP chatter increased for all ten possible nominees. From February to March, daily chatter dropped for all ten (everyone was watching basketball, right?). In the last eight days, daily chatter has leaped for all ten. So indeed, by itself, DWC’s claim that “Thune’s name is being discussed more and more” is technically correct.
But does that matter if everyone else is being discussed more and more, too? Let’s see how each candidate’s Google VP numbers have changed:
|
change in daily average |
| potential VP |
|
Jan-Feb |
Feb-Mar |
Mar
-early Apr |
| Marco Rubio |
|
135% |
-28% |
257% |
| Rob Portman |
|
117% |
-49% |
940% |
| Chris Christie |
|
146% |
-49% |
308% |
| Bob McDonnell |
|
219% |
-47% |
390% |
| Susana Martinez |
|
131% |
-27% |
798% |
| Paul Ryan |
|
145% |
-7% |
231% |
| Mitch Daniels |
|
110% |
-55% |
381% |
| John Thune |
|
124% |
-41% |
361% |
| Bobby Jindal |
|
143% |
-42% |
460% |
| Rand Paul |
|
115% |
-53% |
100% |
| median |
|
133% |
-44% |
371% |
| mean |
|
138% |
-40% |
423% |
The past week brought the man from Murdo a 361% jump in daily Google VP attention. 361% sounds spectacular… until you notice that’s still below the 423% average early-April spike for Thune’s top competitors for VP attention. Even on the most generous metric I can cook up for John, he’s still in the bottom half of the top ten.
Therefore, by these numbers (actual numbers, to which Dakota War College and the South Dakota Republican Party appear terminally allergic), John Thune does indeed continue to warrant VP consideration… about as much as Jon Huntsman warranted Presidential consideration on January 1.
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