The latest Madville Times poll took an early snapshot of online support for the five candidates for Madison City Commission. The 191 votes cast (thank you, eager readers!) over the last couple days show a tight race for the two open seats:
With the standard online margin of error just slightly larger than the city's debt load, we see four of the five candidates in an early tie. Former mayor Gene Hexom and former school board member Kelly Johnson appear evenly matched with political newcomers Jennifer Wolff and Jeremiah Corbin.
All five candidates were tied during the first 24 hours of voting. Yesterday, Ashley Allen's support hit a strange plateau. Allen's fifth-place finish seems anomalous given that of the five candidates, he has commented most frequently on this blog. Has blog familiarity bred contempt among Madville Times readers?
Compare that to Hexom's strong showing among blog readers who have heard me regularly denigrate Hexom's blindered and brittle rein over Madison. That Hexom could come out ahead of Allen in a poll on this blog suggests that Madville Times readers are far from a mere reflection of the author's views.
For some real fun, let's look at how voters' first and second picks align:
|First Vote||Ashley Allen||Gene Hexom||Jennifer Wolff||Jeremiah Corbin||Kelly Johnson||(blank)||First vote total|
|Second vote total||8||34||16||23||25||85|
The strongest synergy between candidates is between the former officeholders, Hexom and Johnson. 15 of the folks who picked Hexom first picked Johnson second; 14 of the folks who picked Johnson first picked Hexom second.
Jennifer Wolff appears to have the strongest contingent of single-candidate voters. 55% of the folks who voted for Wolff did not pick a second candidate. Only 9% of Hexom's voters declined to check a second candidate. Let's step on some really thin speculative ice: does this suggest Wolff has some unique appeal? Is there a contingent of voters determined to return a female voice to the city commission?
We could flip that number on its head and suggest a challenge for Wolff and Allen: they have the lowest crossover appeal (45% and 63%, respectively), the ability to draw voters who mark a second box. Hexom and Johnson have the most crossover appeal (91% and 81%).
One more note: when we talk about state House races, we often hear that the goal in those two-slot races is to be everyone's second choice. This city commission poll may support that adage. Hexom is the only candidate who got more than half of his votes from people who clicked his name second. And sure enough, he came in second overall, by one vote.
The Madison city election is April 8: stay tuned for more exciting local politics!6 comments