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Four More Years: No One Beating Obama

My neighbors at Dakota War College love to soothe their nerves with gentle cooing that Barack Obama will be a one-term president. While the conservative bloggarazzi revel in the President's low poll numbers, they ignore one key fact: his potential GOP challengers' numbers are even lower:

Americans are pretty evenly divided on whether they'd rather have four more years of Barack Obama or replace him with a Republican in 2012, with 48% going for Obama and 47% with a generic Republican. But with the exception of Mitt Romney none of the actual top tier Republican candidates poll as well against the President as the hypothetical one.

Obama leads Romney 47-46, matching his generic ballot lead. Obama's lead expands to 48-45 over Mike Huckabee, 49-43 over Newt Gingrich, 51-42 over Sarah Palin, and 48-37 over Marco Rubio who PPP followers voted in as this month's 'wild card' candidate [Tom Jensen, "Obama Leads All Republicans," Public Policy Polling, 2010.11.29].

PPP also finds that Palin, the Celebritarian playing the press better than any regular Republican, is viewed as electable by only 28% of Americans. She can't even get a majority of Republicans to say they think she could beat the President in 2012.

One-term President? Go ahead, conservatives. Keep telling yourselves that, if it makes you happy. But you have yet to come up with someone who can make that happen.


  1. Stan Gibilisco 2010.11.30

    It's mighty early to make forecasts on this issue. I'm surprised that Obama leads Romney by only one percentage point, and Huckabee by only three.

  2. Mathew Wollmann 2010.11.30

    A lot can happen in 2 years, either side shouldn't be getting their hopes up.

  3. caheidelberger 2010.11.30

    Agreed—it's way early. But what little data may be available now doesn't point toward any easy fulfillment of Minority Leader McConnell's #1 goal.

  4. caheidelberger 2010.12.01

    Intriguing! Any idea who these LooneyThune guys are? Any SD connection? CB and Sean, care to comment?

  5. GoldMan 2010.12.02

    You're as accurate with this prediction as you were in the November 2nd Election results. Can we say, "Blinders!"

  6. caheidelberger 2010.12.02

    Blinders? I'm looking at other people's polls, finding Thune hardly registering on the radar, and finding no oher Republican beating Obama. I'm looking very clearly at the data available. What blinders?

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