Alas, South Dakota's youngest voting generation knows who can butter its political bread. Amid reports that the national youth vote is leaning strongly liberal/progressive/Democrat, Sam Hurst publishes a new Dakota Poll that finds our young voters offering Jensenesque regressivism safe harbor in South Dakota for at least another generation.
The February phone survey of 400 South Dakotans ages 18 to 35 finds the following political self-identifications:
43% describe themselves as “very conservative (13%), somewhat conservative (20%), or leaning conservative (10%)”; nearly twice as many as the 24% who describe themselves as “very liberal (6%), somewhat liberal (11%), or leaning liberal (7%).” 23% of South Dakotans describe themselves as moderates.
In terms of political partisanship, 33% describe themselves as Republicans. 21% describe themselves as “supporters of the Tea Party”. 22% describe themselves as Democrats. 20% describe themselves as Independents [Sam Hurst, "March 2014 South Dakota Youth Poll," Dakota Poll, 2014.03.19].
These young conservatives aren't going anywhere, either. 48% say they've lived here all there lives; 83% said they went to high school here. 54% say it is extremely likely they will be living in South Dakota five years from now; only 6% say it is extremely unlikely that they will stay... which one would expect of conservatives who don't like change. This result does not mean that young people are not leaving the state; it just means that the more mobile young South Dakotans had already emigrated before Dakota Poll called.
The young survey respondents offer a reasonably conventional perception of what makes their generation choose to leave or stay:
| Top reasons young people leave | Top reasons young people stay | ||
| Work/Job Opportunties | 48% | Raise a Family/Values | 26% |
| Warmer/Better Weather | 22% | Work/Job Opportunities | 21% |
| Better Pay | 20% | Low Population/Small Communities | 20% |
| Better Schools | 15% | Family/Friends | 19% |
| Entertainment/Culture Leisure/Shopping | 15% | Low Crime/Safety | 17% |
Note that over twice as many respondents say job opportunities motivate people to leave South Dakota than motivate people to stay. In an interesting contrast, the leave reasons seem much more rationally capitalist than the stay reasons. Does that mean this young conservative generation will be much more family-values conservatives than free-market conservatives?
On social issues, these conservative-leaning millennials aren't all predictably conservative. The 20% who want a complete ban on abortion only slightly outnumber the 18% who want abortion legal in all circumstances. 26% want abortion legal with some restrictions. That's 44% who could show up at the polls and mostly defend women's reproductive rights. We can then fight off the anti-abortion majority by splitting them on exceptions: 25% want to allow abortion only in cases of rape, incest, or risk to the life of the mother; 9% would remove exceptions for rape and incest.
Get away from the political labels, and other issues may offer Democrats more chances to find common ground with this seemingly conservative generation. 72% say they are willing to make significant sacrifice to raise teacher pay in South Dakota. 56% say raising teacher pay would improve the quality of our schools... which suggests that the other 16% either enjoy throwing money away or believe that we have a moral obligation to pay teachers what they deserve for the good work they are already doing.
58% of respondents are making less than $35,000 a year. The poll didn't ask about the minimum wage, but combine those lower incomes with the recognition above that job opportunities may be better outside South Dakota, and these young voters may be more willing to support increasing wages and/or decreasing the tax burden that lower income folks face under our regressive sales tax.
Then again, this group isn't terribly tuned in to workers rights. 51% say they would make little or no sacrifice to support workers rights like organizing unions. The only social issue polled getting a stronger negative reaction was reducing carbon emissions to combat climate change (52% not feeling sacrificial).
In another bad sign, this 85% white generation has trouble seeing their kinship with the other. 67% say they would make significant personal sacrifice to help fight poverty in South Dakota. Only 49% say they would make similar sacrifice to fight poverty on Indian reservations.
The Dakota Poll results show what every Democratic door-knocker and campus organizer in South Dakota already knows: we can't count on the rising youth tide to float our liberal South Dakota boats. We lose a big chunk of future Democratic activists to the bright lights of big cities and other less conservative places where the fight for the Left isn't as hard a fight. Those who stay are naturally more conservative, meaning we liberals have to work extra hard to cut through their prejudices, find common ground on issues like fair teacher pay, and build on that common ground to expand their generosity to include more of their fellow South Dakotans.
damn! are sam's poll nos. reliable? apples from the tree. here is another interesting (national) perspective.
According to the Institute for Policy Studies, the $26.7 billion of bonuses Wall Street banks paid out last year would be enough to more than double the pay of every one of America's 1,085,000 full-time minimum wage workers.
The remainder of the $83 billion of hidden subsidy going to those same banks would almost be enough to double what the government now provides low-wage workers in the form of wage subsidies under the Earned Income Tax Credit.
But I don't expect Congress to make these sorts of adjustments any time soon.
The "paid-what-you're-worth" argument is fundamentally misleading because it ignores power, overlooks institutions, and disregards politics. As such, it lures the unsuspecting into thinking nothing whatever should be done to change what people are paid, because nothing can be done.
Don't buy it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/paid-what-youre-worth_b_4964290.html?utm_hp_ref=world&ir=World
My guess (from experience) is a majority of the more progressive young people flee South Dakota as soon as they can for more money in places like Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco (yes, I'm a developer).
We need to do more to keep those high paying jobs in SD instead of just trailer construction and oil pipeline maintenance.
Curious whether Sam polled the rez.
In 2012, I was surprised to see that most of the young voters on the roles in District 33 were listed as "Independents". They were often from a home where dad was a Democrat, mom was a Republican and one or more of the 18-25 year olds had chosen to be independent thinkers.
I am not really surprised by these results. Most young people seem to have a very strong libertarian streak within them with very little tolerance for partisan politics today. I will assert that this is because they have the luxury of such a political perspective compared to the world that their parents and grandparents had to live in at their age.
As long as they don't have to worry about a war and a subsequent draft they have no vested interest in supporting the opposition or anti-war Party.
Many of the baby boomers today, whose allegiance to the Democratic Party began in the 1960s and 70s, initially supported the Democratic Party because of the Vietnam war, but this allegiance over time has been placed in check by their tendency towards promoting social liberalism, but not economic liberalism. This less than faint support for economic liberalism since Reagan's appearance on the political stage, as well as an interpretative view of social liberalism in the purely libertarian context by today's youth, has only emboldened the off-spring of the baby boomers to embrace a libertarian attitude towards economics, causing them to view how the recent economic downfall was handle as being more important to them than as to why it happen. It happen because there was too much of an unregulated libertarian attitude in government since Reagan and not because there was too much government involvement, but the youth today, more interested in the future than the past (who can blame them), see government involvement and bail-outs as a greater threat to them than the realities of big business and unregulated commerce…. The only world they truly know… a libertarian one...
How do you explain the 99% movement, well, there will always be some true economic liberals, but this movement was more than just young people - and in the midwest such positions will always be tempered by our conservative self-reliant attitudes.
A very insightful article on what has been going on in South Dakota for quite some time (at least a decade). There are many reasons I finally decided to leave the Rushmore State. A big one was the politics and how the state is increasingly unbalanced. I opted to move to the Beaver State and I have not regretted that move. In fact, as time progresses, I'm finding I love it in Oregon more and more. There is so much to discover along the Coast, in the Willamette Valley, and the Cascades. If anyone is interested in moving here, let me know. I've got great tips to give you.
Cory, I like what Mr Hurst stands for, and respect what he has done here, but I have to agree with Josh Broton. Why in the world would any young progressive stay here unless they love the wealleye fishing and the pheasant hunting so much that they can't leave. So, it does not surprise me that the Repubs lead the Dems 3 to 2 by most metrics. It will be interesting next week when you tell us how many of the house and senate seats in the state legislature are fielding a Democrat candidate. I think that the damage done to the State's Democrat party, by Herseth Sandlin and Tim Johnson is discounted by the Democrat party leadership.
It's not going to help our cause by allowing the Libertarians and Larry Pressler to be leading on cannabis rights, marriage equality and other causes dear to Dems.
G-Man, I'm planning to move to Oregon this fall. Specifically I'm looking at the middle of the Willamette valley, Corvallis, Albany or Salem.
I lived in northwest Washington for a year doing an internship. I loved it! The beach, the Cascades, the climate. Woo-hoo!
I'm open to any information you'd like to share.
The more isolated and closed a population is, the more conservative it tends to be. Such people may even travel and have some experiences with folks not just like them, but if they are determined to interpret their experiences according to their conservative outlook, they won't change.
That's too many South Dakotans.
Ms. Geelsdottir, that's wonderful for you. In Salem I know a fellow who fancies himself a singer but he picks produce for a living. You'll love it there. We will miss you here but you will enjoy http://www.blueoregon.com/
Why thank you Grudz! That's very nice of you.
I'm excited about it. One of my favorite things in Washington in the summer was the fresh fruit stands. I picked up vegetables straight from the field beside the stand, fresh clams that had been dug an hour ago, salmon that was barely dead, and fruit!!! Oh my god! I'd buy a handful of cherries, eat them and spit the pits out my car window on the way home. And apples? Oh yeah.
Grudz, I'm planning on leaving around the end of September, first of October. I will probably still keep an eye on the Times because I will still care about SD.
Blue Oregon looks like my kind of blog. Thanks so much for the link Grudz.
I view the poll optimistically. For everyone who claims to be "conservative," if you tease out their beliefs on issues, they are a lot more progressive than they might either know or admit. Sometimes the problem is just that no one stands up to push or popularize progressive values, which are just as much a part of South Dakota as conservative values. I like that Weiland is standing up for those values. He might get beat, but at least people will have a better understanding of progressives have values that are rooted strongly in South Dakota.
Here's an interesting fact from the poll: 73% said that they had a great deal of interest or a moderate interest in “protecting the environment of South Dakota.” That's pretty much what I would expect of people who stay in South Dakota (including me for quite a long time). The great environmental quality is a great thing about the state. Anyone think these young folks want their state turned into Daugaard's dump for nuclear waste?
Culture of independence = oxymoron.
Larry Kurtz, according to the demographic info (see page 11 and onward of the poll results:), 85% of the respondents said they are white; 8% said they are American Indian... close to the general population. 27% are from the Minne-Lincoln metroplex; 44% rest of East River, 28% West River. Sam doesn't provide finer-grained location info.
Deb, that's great! It will be nice having you in the Beaver State. I moved from Sioux Falls to Eugene back in 2012, so, I'm at the south end of the Willamette Valley. I recently took the train to Salem and spent a day there. I got to go see the Oregon House of Representatives debate three bills in the House Chambers. I'll be happy to send tips your way.
Deb, the Oregon House has a female Speaker.
Wonderful G-Man. Thanks for helping. Shall we ask Cory to connect us via our personal emails? I'm good with that.
Winston, your explanation may fit the South Dakota data, but does it fit the national data?
Donald, I do wonder how much the responses to the poll reflect things these young people think they ought to say, or are just used to saying based on the general denigration of terms like "liberal" and "progressive" in South Dakota. I'd also love to flesh out that environment response with interviews that would get at what those respondents really mean by "protecting the environment"—would they oppose that nuclear waste dump? Keystone XL? Uranium mining? Would they support the Niobrara-Ponca conservation project?
Cory, I've had some experience in the environmental area, but I have no access to any recent poll. My experience leads me to suggest the following. I don't think there is much difference between generations or political ideology on a lot of this.
Water quality is highly valued. Any development or policy that puts water quality at risk is going to be something that folks are going to be very concerned about. Air quality is also valued, but mostly becomes an issue around large sources of pollution (power plants, cement plant, incinerators, etc), or around large non-point sources (quarries, mines, etc.)
A second issue that would poll high is the broad area of "environmental justice." A lot of folks remain in South Dakota, despite lower wages, because of the great environment and the outdoor recreation. Those are "values" that most people want to protect. They don't want to see the environment trashed just so some outsiders with a lot of political capital (not to mention money) can further enrich themselves. The jobs issue can counteract somewhat this environmental ethic. That's especially true if the jobs are provided by traditional South Dakota businesses associated with logging or farming/ranching, and (less so) mining.
Issues like the Niobrara Ponca project or wilderness designations not only involve the environmental ethic, they also involve a federal presence, which is always going to raise eyebrows, and the perception that traditional South Dakota industries (ag, logging) could be affected negatively. I think there are significant differences between conservatives and liberals on these issues, mostly because of the perceptions (often overblown) of "federal takeover" or outright falsehoods ("U.N. takeover").
Mr Pay, If you are talking about the young folks in the poll, I hope that you are correct. But if that is the case they are voting against their own beliefs and interests. The Rounds administration was the most unconcerned about the quality of our water and air and ground of any administration in South Dakota in my lifetime. The 10 CAFO dairy operations started under the guidance of Rounds Secretary of Agriculture, Larry Gabriel which were water users to the extreme and polluters as many were in the Veblen and Sioux River aquifers as well as the Sioux River watershed. They promoted the coal burning power plants at Big Stone II and Selby as well as the one that was to be attached to the Hyperion oil refinery. And of course there big promotion was for the Hyperion refinery itself. They assisted the CAFO hog farm near Marty and defended it with highway patrol used against our Native American population who were protesting the location of that hog confinement. They promoted the first Keystone pipeline and its taking of the land for its construction which is something that Nebraska is now stopping for the Keystone XL pipeline. They started the allowing, (which has continued under the Daugaard administration) of the tiling of wetlands and the irrigation of crops which is draining the aquifers, as well as leaving some of their neighbors with wells gone dry.
Cory, nationally I would claim that it does as well, but party affiliation (to the favor of Democrats) would be some what higher because of the greater growth in the youth population of minorities versus whites, and the historic memory which minorities in this country still have towards the two major political parties and which one best protects their interests.
Grudz, thank you for tip you gave to Deb on the new blog I have yet to explore, myself: http://www.blueoregon.com/ .
Hey G-man, maybe you can talk Deb into bringing grudz with her when she moves to Oregon. Then he can see what it feels like to be the minority party by and overwhelming number.
If Ms. Geelsdottir/ is up to serving me breakfasts and taking over some of the other things we have to hire professionals to do, I would go to this Oregon you speak of. Do not think that caring for grudznick would be some easy libbie task, be aware.
Wait, wait! Grudz I'll get my head kerchief, apron, fry pan, scrub bucket and spatula. Do you like cigars or pipes? We should probably set up a still too, so you can have all the White Lightnin you want.
Oh wait! I can't do this! I promised myself to Blindman. You two will have to duel it out to decide who gets me. I mean, to decide who I'll serve. The man always decides. But the loser better be ready to cough up a Big Dowry!
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xnbiRDNaDeo
I got problems
The Blindman
Cigars
Ah, and after a short spring, (oh but it's still winter here in Dakotaland, Lanny) what a way to start the morning. Thanks for the great posts, Deb, Blindman and grudz. After just a few short months of reading, I now fully realize why they call it the Madville Times. Blindman, your Lee Marvin youtube is priceless.
Madville Times Match Making Blog.
Dont need no match making, just need someone to tend my still.
cigars
still tending
now if she could just clean my fish
The Blindman
Grudz
Who ya matching Roger, Deb and grudz? 'Nother great post Blindman. I can't remember if I told you how much I enjoyed your poem the other day.
Lanny,
It looks like a threesome in the making.
Oh Blindman! You hurt me! Giving me away so casually after I gave my heart to you! (Lee Marvin plays that kind of role so well.)
Roger and Larry, I swear to god, swear to god! I never planned on a threesome. But now that you mention it . . . .
Oh no, I can feel the NSA tendrils on us again.
KIDDING! KIDDING!! KIDDING!!!
You guys all make me smile! Deb, I hope you keep commenting on here when you're in Oregon! Sounds like an adventure, good luck!
Hold on everybody. We are early in what I will call prenigotyation. Just like in South Dakota politics, there is going to be some give and take from all the parties involved.
I can't believe I just said that.
What is being nigciated now isn't a threesome, but a three something. While we aren't talking directly, I'm sure each of us is thinking the same thing. How to delegate responsibility at the still. The way I see it there are three positions that need to be filled, each very important to the success of the relationship.
1 . Someone to keep the fire going under the still
2. Someone to keep the mash healthy
3. Someone to fill and cork the jugs
Objective analysis tells me that decision making should be relatively easy because there is an odd number of somethings. Make no mistake decisions there will be, such as.
Wholesale, retail, or hoard it for ourselves
Who carries the humidor
And who is in charge of monitoring the toilet paper supply
let the negotiations begin.
The Blindman
ME!
ME!
ME!
Fill and cork the jugs!
I said it first!
I vote that we hoard it all for ourselves, except for seasonal bashes with all the Madizens.
Grudz should be responsible for the toilet paper. Don't forget Grudz - TP is very important to me. (I know how you men are about TP.)
Doggone it Blindman, I looked in my dictionary and on google for "prenigotyation". I find it neither place. Have you been playing scrabble? That sounds like one of those words that a scrabble player would get, except that it has too many letters, so I thought maybe you found prenigo or gotyat or tyation in your scrabble dictionary and then added the other letters to make some pluperfect tense of it, if it is a verb, or some other type of derivative if it is a noun. See my apple even underlined it in red meaning it cannot find it as a word, or that it is spelled incorrectly.Please clarify.
Oh, and how much toilet paper will have to kept on hand?
Thanks Jenny. A little levity is good for all us Madizens.
Well now you don't have to answer my toilet paper question Blindman. Sounds like Deb has already assigned the toilet paper job to grudz and she is taking the bottle filler, cork stuffer job and since I don't know how to tend a still fire, I am left out of the mix.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPuWX7d7yEw
Blindman-I think your enterprise is a bit too ambitious. According to "Popcorn" Sutton-distilling white lightning is a two man proposition(or two ladies) and he shows you how it is done. I've seen the documentary in it's entirety.
I'm not opposed to four special runs a year for the Madizens.
Spring Tuneup Tonic, to blow the stink of winter off. Note to self invite Bobby Ellis.
Summer Silly Swamp Water, self explanatory.
For the fall festival, Harvest Hootinany. We'll need entertainment, how about the Rev Pat Robertson.
And for the winter celebration, Wild Winter Wonder Juice, thank Madville Mainstreet Winter Games.
Free booze, crazy people carrying jugs of flammable liquid around, and vastly different political views, what could go wrong?
The Blindman
God, I love this blog.
Lanny, we need you to carry the humidor. I didn't assign TP to you because I just like the thought of Grudz toting it around. C'mon, don't you too?
Blindman, I think -I so hate to say this - we ought to consider a marshall. Everyone would turn their gun belts over to her before quaffing the first slug of white lightnin.
Who wants to be the marshall?
Watch "Occupy(Beatles)Revolution" on YouTube
Occupy(Beatles)Revolution: http://youtu.be/ak70FTn4Br4
The Blindman
Why does it have to be a her? Sounds kind of female chauvinistic to me.
Hahahaha. I was just innocently using a generic pronoun to refer to humanity in general. ;-)
(Gotcha!)
I just watched the Blindman's Occupy (Beatles)
Revolution. Can everyone say Marshall Bill?
Do not trust Fleming with your whiskey or your guns.
Anyway, what were we talking about on this blog?
Lanny, good point! Grudz will take one look at the Republican Party in Oregon and laugh his head off. Grudz, if you want to see a Republican Party run by a bunch of right-wing whacko clowns, have Deb bring you to Oregon.
If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve. Lanny it would be hypocritical of me to enforce laws that I myself would prefer to break.
Besides it would cut into my baking time. Brownies anyone?
The Blindman
Bill, It sounds to me like you are ready to run for office, if you are going to break the laws you are expected to pass, enforce and keep.
What's in the brownies,lawbreaker? Any green leafy substances?
For aesthetic value,change the name of Thunder Valley to Thunder Road and change roadside reflectors to roadside mirrors and let the fun begin. Force the ex-gov's insurance company to provide unlimited liability and workmans comp.
Sir, I resent your implication of my actions as possibly being in violation of our present legal system.
No person in their right mind would intentionally add a substance to perfectly good brownies in the hope that it might change their chemical mixture in a mind altering way.
Therefore, it is with great remorse, that find myself in the position of having to delete you from my friends list.
What's that? This isn't Facebook?
Well my mind hasn't been right for a while.
Never mind.
The Blindman
Cory, do a story on Medical Marijuana and how it relates to the conservative agenda. . . You may find, that many jobs would hatch in South Dakota, making the economy boom. This state makes a lot of money on suffering(Gambling, Alcoholism, Drug Addiction, Broken Families) Legalization of cannabis would fix a lot of these problems that are being painted as positives by high powered conservatives in South Dakota. . . Tell me I'm wrong . . . This state claims they want healthy safe citizens. . . yet state budgets and police budgets are funded by making people suffer. . . it's WRONG
YIKES!!! I looked in the mirror and saw Wiken!
Hahahaha! Put that in the wrong place, right Roger?!?
Deb,
I knew I did that but couldn't remember the thread.
Technical senility I guess