Who says South Dakota's primary is an afterthought? The Washington insiders at National Journal:
If Democrats fall a seat short of holding the Senate, there will be a lot of second-guessing on the one race that never materialized but should have held a lot more promise: South Dakota.
The state is holding its primaries Tuesday, and they're an afterthought. Former Gov. Mike Rounds is the Republican now on a glide path to the Senate, facing weak opposition in the GOP primary. In the general election, he'll face Rick Weiland, a former state director for Tom Daschle who (even the most optimistic Democrats will acknowledge) faces near-impossible odds in the solidly red state [Josh Kraushaar, "For Democrats, the Race That Got Away," National Journal, 2014.06.02].
Ouch.
Kraushaar goes on to attribute to "several Democratic operatives" the story that Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was going to run but didn't want to deal with a primary that would have forced her to say Lefty things to appease us malcontents in the Wellstone (Abourezk?) wing of the party. The only named source he gets to support that angle is State Senator Jason Frerichs:
"Stephanie's still trying to lick some wounds with the party faithful that were disappointed in her health care vote, and can't get over that. There was a motive there to shut her out, from even entertaining the option from running," said state Senate Minority Leader Jason Frerichs, an ally of Herseth Sandlin. "Her decision not to run surprised so many of us, we're kicking ourselves for not pushing harder on her to run" [Kraushaar, 2014.06.02].
Kicking ourselves? Who's the we in your our, Senator Frerichs? I don't see any of my shoe leather on my backside, and the only place I feel like applying that shoe leather right now is on Republicans... and maybe on fellow Dems who think three weeks before convention is a good time to be publicly declaring the Rick Weiland campaign a disappointment. Wouldn't the time for that comment have been January 1, when a disappointed Frerichs or any other Dem could have taken out a petition to bring us a better nominee?
Kraushaar Googles around just enough to agree with my prediction that Mike Rounds gets 55% tomorrow, with Stace Nelson second. But thinking any harder about South Dakota hurts his little brain, so he dismisses Larry Pressler as an afterthought, contrary to the judgment of our man Kevin Woster, who says folks should take Pressler seriously. Kraushaar doesn't even mention Gordon Howie and the quixotic 12% of the GOP electorate he can peel away. Add Pressler-Howie crossfire to a Democratic candidate running a smart, door-to-door campaign, a candidate whose only mistake so far (absolutely unnoticed by the mainstream media) is briefly riling some of the Indian base by using a scalping metaphor, and we are far from Kraushaar's impossible.
But you know, South Dakota Dems, if we want to move closer to impossible, telling Washington insiders that we're disappointed and still licking our wounds from 2010 is one good way to do that..
Stephanie is making a fortune working for Raven Industries, she enjoys raising her son and she never once seriously wished she was running this year. Harry Reid, an idiot if there ever was one as a caucus leader, won't stop pouting that he failed to convince Stephanie to run a race she never wanted to run. Senator Frerichs has much to learn, starting with taking all the happy talk you hear from the Herseth echo chamber with a grain of salt. Does he really think Stephanie wanted to face the Karl Rove/Dick Wadhams noise machine 24/7 for more than a year?
Think about it. Stephanie didn't finish at the top of her Georgetown law class because she's naïve.
Harry Reid has been a disaster as Senate Leader. He's a red state captive and apologist for Blue Dogs who stand for nothing and let the Tea Party knock them on their butts. Stephanie went down with the Blue Dog ship only four years ago.
If Rick Weiland runs against the Washington lunacy, which includes Harry Reid, he will only gain more credibility with regular voters.
Stephanie Herseth need not run ever again, her Blue Dog Democrat status coupled with going against the party on ACA gave us her true colors. What her supporters are discounting are the voters that she betrayed at a time when support for President Obama was critical. She misplayed her cards than and lost her seat, can Democrats trust her?
There are are those that say Weiland isn't strong enough to take on Rounds, to those I say Rick's campaign has not yet started, the Weiland campaign starts June 4.
Since Rick's campaign started he has been doing exactly what he needs to do, traveling the state and letting people get to know him. Rick has some solid and true grassroots support that is growing.
Should Rounds be the Republican candidate, I'm not fully willing to accept that even at this late date, Rick has plenty of ammunition. It is also obvious that a lot of Republicans don't like Rounds, will they support the Indy's knowing that their vote will likely not count, or will they concede to reality and vote Weiland. Anything to get rid of RINO Mike.
Stephanie and her blue dogs produced mainly blue dog crap. She thought she could take her DC money and buy staff and forget about getting volunteers. She irritated college students by promising to support better funding for loans and grants and then never supported but rather opposed. Her out-of-state staff was not going to report negative comments to her or even pass on liberal suggestions for better legislation.
She got beat by a twit because she voted wrong dozens of times and her "family" ads were mostly silly and exploitative.
I think what Democrats in each county are going to have to go out and talk about Rick Weiland to their friends and even Republicans who are more moderate but don't like Rounds.
That's what I'm going to do here in Hanson County home of Satace Nelson. If Stace does lose tomorrow I'm going to talk to his supporters and ask them to look at Rick. They might not agree with him but I'll tell them that he's a lot more honest then Rounds.
Herseth Sandlin can run again, but she's going to have to do a little fence mending and soul searching. One thing about SD politics, which her father learned, is you are never totally out of consideration just because you made a mistake or three along the way. But you've got to talk to people and show by actions that you're willing to stick your neck out for the people who really need you. Lars often supported the business side of things, but he stuck up for the little guys, too. Yeah, the ACA vote was damn near unforgivable, but if you don't try to overcome that, you have no chance at forgiveness
This primary will go down in history as the one where it became obvious that blogging doesn't matter or affect elections, and neither do these twitter likes or facebookings that Mr. Nelson and Dr. Bos are always talking about.
Blogging twittering and facebooking is not reality, young people, and only the insane put stock in their predictions.
Fer gosh sakes, look at the history of Mr. H's polls compared to reality. Tomorrow, unless Rhoden wins and Rounds gets 8%, it shows again the blogging isn't reality.
I'm just sayin...
Thank you for sharing the update post. I've watched sadly in my blog analytical that it wasn't read as much as the first. human nature.
Owen, you are awesome.
Gosh Douglas, you must remember too, those dozens of SF streetcorners with dozens of college kids on each, out there waving signs for her on election day. I guess I was not aware of the promises that she made to them. I only remembered the one that she made to me.
If you saw my LTE in the Argus Leader on Saturday, you know that I am pretty passionate about the issue of the depleted uranium that we use in our weapons and our shells. I went to an American Legion rally for the young Ms Herseth at the behest of my good friend Roger Andal. I asked her if she intended to submit legislation to ban DU as a weapon used by the US and to seek testing for exposure to DU, for troops returning from our current wars, just as Tom Daschle had for Agent Orange. There in the presense of a hundred or so American Legionaires, she answered, oh but of course. In her 6 plus years in Congress, none of that ever crossed her lips. She is a pretty face, just like our current Congresswoman, with no backbone and no dedication to principles or to all of the people of South Dakota.
Alright. Let's get the party started. Tuesday night predictions:
Rounds 62%
Nelson 19%
Bosworth 7%
Rhoden 9%
Ravnsborg 2%
Guv
Daugaard 97%
Hubbel 3%
Lowe 75%
Wismer 25%
Read 'em and weep.
Donald Pay,
Agreed, Stephanie can run again, there is nothing stopping her..
I would say that if she wants forgiveness she had best start her redemption tour the day after the general election. She has a lot of explaining to do to what was once a pretty solid base.
Remember how stubborn we can be, we didn't vote and gave the seat to Noem
I guess, I may as well take a shot, even if only wishful thinking.
Senate
MMR 32%
Stace 35.2%
The Dr 18%
Rhoden 12%
Ravensborg 2.8%
Gov Lowe 70%
Wismer 30%
DD 68%
Laura 32%
Powers is already celebrating the review by the National Journal as if our primary election is in fact the general election.
I'm kind of like the way so many are underestimating Rick.
Roger, I'm fine with Stephanie running again. But she's not running this year, I'm not kicking myself for that. Neither should any other Dem.
And on Pat's celebration: we all believe what we want to believe. I want to believe what you believe, Roger, that underestimating Rick will be the Republicans' mistake. I also want to believe what 96 mentions, that not having Harry Reid's stamp of approval is a plus for Rick. Just keep yapping, Harry.
And 96, you're 7 points too high on Rounds and 8 too high on Daugaard. (Above 90%? No way! Even Hubbel can break 10% in a two-way.) As for Lowe and Wismer... dead heat until the reservation vote comes in. Lowe takes Pine Ridge 80-20. Pop some popcorn, stay up late!
I've read the article but like so many things that come out these days and with age I'm skeptical and always wonder what or who is behind this? What is the motive?
Regardless of the article I am simply focusing on the South Dakota Democratic Party candidates that are running after the primary from whomever wins the primary for Governor, Rick Weiland for Senate, Corinna Robinson for House and my local reps running for the state legislature.
It will be the 2nd time I've ever volunteered in a political campaign with the 1st volunteering and ending up as a delegate for Al Franken when I lived in the Cities.
This time I plan to do what I can to help quite a bit more with "old School" which is what I'm most comfortable with and that is just talking to people going door to door, making phone calls for fundraising or whatever. I'll happily be a grunt.
There is no way in heck I'm going to sit by and watch my home state have all national elected offices turn Republican then the Governors with AG, SOS, PUC remain in the Republican hands and then have a super majority in the legislature. If Rounds wins the primary and general for example with SD being a totally red state if you think EB-5 and all that crap was bad just think of it on steroids.
Damn the polls and articles full speed ahead!
No matter how wrong they are, time after time, you can rely on the Blue Dogs to keep being wrong, to bad-mouth their own core voters, and to whine anonymously to the press in demoralizing hatchet-job pieces.
Well done, "centrist" hacks. Well done.
To your point, Chris S, If the Dems ever go back to being Dems, in the mold of FDR or JFK, I might consider joining their ranks again. The way it is now, I feel like I live in Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?".
Chris, we should co-opt the center. Rick isn't a radical leftist: he's preaching things like stronger Medicare and less big money in politics that people in the center are all about.
Lanny S., I understand completely. I don't know why Blue Dog types think anybody would ever want to vote for them when they campaign meekly, pretend to be Republican Lite, and don't seem to stand for anything. Nobody wants to vote for a wishy-washy wimp who doesn't believe in anything.
If they think they're appealing to "moderate Republicans" and "right-leaning independents," why would those people vote for a lightweight quasi-Republican when they can vote for the actual Republican on the ballot? The strategy never made any sense to me. It certainly doesn't work in practice. You'd think even the Clintonites and D.C. consultants would figure that out after a while.
Theses posts show why the Democrat party will never be a force to be reckoned with in SD? Herseth could never please only one party and possibly be re elected as with RW if by possibility he is elected.
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Primary day also shows the absurdity of being a Democrat in SD.
Cory, you're right. People like Rick used to be in the "center," but over the past 30 years — and especially during the recent Teabagger Tantrum — the location of the political "center" has moved far to the right.
How do you find "common ground" in such an environment? It's like deciding where to have supper, with one person saying he'd like a hamburger or a steak, and the other person demanding that they eat from the garbage dumpster. Where's the all-important "center" in a discussion like that?
Really, Les? The "Democrat party"?
Also, your analysis is off. Herseth Sandlin bent over backwards to please Republicans, even to the point of infuriating her own base. Yet her own base still voted for her, while the Republicans and "independents" she was courting... surprise! Still voted for the Republican, despite Noem's obvious glaring shortcomings.
Once again blaming the Democratic base voters for actually caring about stuff is absurd. They still turn out and vote for their party's nominee. However, the base-bashing narrative is the media-approved one, and like a terrier with a sock, they'll never let it go.
Les what do you mean specifically? Democrats will never be a force?
Lynn, the Democrats special interests have no money, the Republicans have tons of it. And I also feel their pain. Anti-Crony Capitalist conservatives are also outside the GOP Chamber of Commerce campaign donors.
Democrats who have registered as GOP: focus your efforts on voting for Lora Hubbel and Stace Nelson as the earth hater party's nominees for governor and US Senate.
Larry already done. I voted for Stace and Lora last week in early voting. Les I mean South Dakota Democrats. Can you please explain? Steve thank you!
Actually caring about stuff and 50 cents will occasionally get you a soda, Chris.
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Count your Democratic votes and accomplishments tonight at 7pm, Lynn for an idea of Dem force in SD politics.
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As long as the broken system of buying and selling politicians exists in both parties, voters that care about "stuff" will actually have to get out and work to elect decent people. Over half of the voting populace should be deciding this primary and you folks here could have been part of that block.
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If you Dems agree with your chosen politician 100% of the time, I can guarantee you will never get that person re elected.
South Dakotans: thousands of American Indian children have been seized and marketed to a white foster care industry. Mike Rounds has committed genocide.
Lynn, you are above average in both understanding and ambition to have been a part of our primary.
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Gruds is apparently right when he speaks of lazy libbies. Can't get the ambition to get a registration and become part of the voice of SD.
I'm speaking of the GOP registration which is the only audible voice in our be state.
Will Boz and Ravnsborg be found in a shelter belt with fatal abdominal trauma and a shotgun tied to a tree? That's what happened to another Rounds staffer.
Les thank you! I'll do what I can to help knowing the odds and learn along the way.
Les, I can't figure out what your position is, or what you're advocating that anybody should do. However, your disrespect and sarcasm come through loud and clear. Message received.
That's good you have some ability to thought process, Chris. Register GOP and vote in the primary. Loud and clear enough for you?
The surprise of the day will be Ravnsborg, who will be within 5 points of Stace. You heard it here first.
Thanks, Les. Yes, you're clear now. I disagree completely. Also, you can give the snotty attitude a rest, please.
No way, Brother! Who's your pollster?
Hey, did you catch these predictions from South Dacola?
Rounds 40%
Nelson 26%
Rhoden 20%
Bosworth 12%
Ravnsbourg 2%
Dauguard 90%
Hubbel 10%
Lowe 65%
Wismer 35%
http://www.southdacola.com/blog/2014/05/primary-endorsements-and-predictions/
Is anyone out there predicting a Wismer win?
CH, you and I both know that your infatuation with Stace is mostly about you hoping that he is a thorn in the side of MMR. I offer the following, from teh bottom up:
Ravnsborg: 6% (mostly protest votes...centrists who are not MMR fans)
Dr. Boz: 7% (highest $ per vote of any candidate in any race)
Stace: 11% (best speaker in the group, not the best campaigner)
Rhoden: 13% (solid votes:dollars ratio)
MMR: 63% (combination of those who actually like him, band-wagoners and those who have not seen any reason to vote for the other four)
In any case, I would make a gentleman's wager with you that Stace is closer to 11% than to 25% (your last prediction, yes?)
Brother, I acknowledge the difficulty I have sorting my hope from analysis. Nelson is apparently disliked a lot more than I realize. I have a hard time figuring that out. I stick with 25% and say I'll be closer because, raised-hackles be darned, Nelson worked the signs and doors harder than the other three challengers... didn't he?
Brother Breaker, For the amount of money that he has and is spending Mike Rounds should have 90% of the vote. Today he has a plane up dragging one of those MiKe Rounds for US Senate banners around. But if you are anywhere near SF, I will bet you breakfast at the Original Pancake House that he will be closer to S DaColas' 40% than your 63%.
Burn your toast this morning Chris? You prove my point on Democratic force never happening in SD. If Herseth couldn't satisfy you, whine on.
Cory, That dislike for Stace is more among fellow pols than it is among the voters. Most voters that I have talked to like the fact that he stands up for his beliefs and that he calls a spade a spade. I am going to be very surprised from the people that I have talked to, if MMR gets 50% of the vote. People of both parties and indes, all have complained about his grandpa and medicare ads. And at least 3/4 of them do not like the money edge that he has in campaign spending.
I'm now hearing from some interesting and politically strong folks coming to me supporting Pressler, Lanny. Rounds winning the primary could actually bring some past problems into the light.
There is no candidate who personally worked harder than Nelson. Rounds isolated himself in the campaign as he did as gov. Hard to snipe hunt when the snipe don't come out to play.
Mercer said that a week ago, Les.
Here are my picks, always fun!
Rounds 56% Name recognition
Nelson 16% Couldn't raise money
Bosworth 3% Not nutty enough for some
Rhoden 18% Good West River turnout
Ravnsborg 7% Small loyal following
Weiland - the ball is yours to do something big this Fall, will you Dems help him out?
Les, your post to Chris, I will grant you that SD in the first decade of this century was not Wisconsin or Minnesota in the 1950s and 60s, but my God, Herseth Sandlin wouldn't have even been considered a moderate Republican by the end of her term in Congress. So why would any Dem vote for her?
As far as Pressler is concerned, I will have to think real hard if Rounds beats Stace Nelson, of who I will vote for Pressler or Weiland in the General.
Montgomery just tweeted this map. https://t.co/r3FvxTjHE4 West River will be strong Rhoden/Nelson, East River strong Rounds/Nelson.
West River GOP establishment wants Howie out of the general and will not vote for Rounds.
The East River GOP establishment has its areolae in the wringer.
Vikings predictions for QB starting job:
Bridgewater - young spritely QB with exceptional strong throwing arm wins the Vikings job after a bright showing at training camp. Has good rapport from other players on the team and is ready to win games. Notably Good workout ethic.
MN Senate prediction for November (hope you don't mind Cory, this is kind of fun and irks those SD conservatives how their neighbor to the East is so different from them).
Franken - 58% hard worker, stays out of limelight in spite of name recognition
GOP candidate- barely 40% (that other party endorsed someone this weekend, I forgot his name though)
MN has become even more progressive. Minorities and young ex-South Dakotans are flocking to the DFL party in droves, excited to be in such a populist state that fights for education investment, marriage equality, and affordable healthcare for all.
Jenny,
My Vikings prediction, they will never win a Super Bowl.
And they said someone named Barack Hussein Obama would never win the presidency either, Roger! :)
Lanny, no one gets 90%. MMR believers are under-motivated to come out, while the challengers' followers know that they can make a statement, even in a losing effort. But I would take your bet if my haunts weren't so distinctly western!
CH, there is a point of diminishing returns to shoe-leather politics, even in SD, where it is much stronger than most places. People here still expect and appreciate the effort of knocking on doors and waving. But at some level they also expect the signs that you are a "real" candidate with a real war chest: billboards, tv, radio, high-profile endorsements. It's a perception thing that leads to the candidate being "friend-zoned" (I really like __________, but I just don't think he has a shot, so I'm voting for ____________).
"MN has become even more progressive."
You do mean "utopian". What happens when the debt bubble breaks for good this time?
So it's just a dream to be able to work for a living wage and for two men or two women that love each other to get married? Utopian to have a high quality education system? Boy, South Dakotans don't expect much do they.
Argus put out that MM Rounds who was waving to the traffic on the corner of 26th and Minnesota this morning, had headed for RC, but due to severe hail had to stop in Pierre. He is hoping to be back in SF this evening. So apparently you folks in the Hills won't get to see the next Senator today, so no need to vote for him.
Also SOS Gant is concerned about voter turnout because of the bad weather east river. Wouldn't that be a cruel hoax if Rhoden beat out Nelson for second because of the weather? Just what grudz ordered.
"Boy, South Dakotans don't expect much do they."
The finer things in life are simple.
One thing that's pretty simple is the math. Wages in Minnesota are higher than South Dakota for every job category, especially the medical field. Jenny can verify.
Nick, there is more to life than money.
Steve,
"Nick, there is more to life than money". Except if you're a Republican
Just voted. The volunteers hosed my wife (an Indy) by not letting her participate in the Dem primary.
I wonder if the volunteers got trained at all about allowing Indies to vote on the Dem primary.
Wayne, Our State is in the 19th not the 21st century. Sioux Falls had problems again today with sending people to the wrong polling place. I have a friend who has voted at the same spot for 14 years and never moved but was listed at a different site but their son who lives with them was still listed at the old site. When the State gets rid of SOS Gant, I hope Minnehaha gets rid of Bob Litz as auditor. With the extremely light voter turnout, who does that favor? I would think the underdogs.
Yes Steve there's more to life than money but money sure makes life easier.
Wayne, "not letting her"? I've heard others say the poll workers were simply handing the non-partisan ballot to Indy voters, but that if you asked, they handed out the Dem ballot, too. Did your wife ask, and did the volunteers actively deny her a ballot?
The Indy/Indian vote favors Ms. Wismer.
Based on what intel, grudz?
U.S. Senator – Republican (159 of 680 precincts)
Stace Nelson 2,485 - 16.67%
Mike Rounds 8,728 - 58.54%
Annette Bosworth 935 - 6.27%
Jason Ravnsborg 522 - 3.50%
Larry Rhoden 2.239 - 15.02%
Governor - Republican (159 of 680 precincts)
Lora Hubbel 2,621 - 17.71%
Dennis Daugaard 23,177 - 82.29%
Governor - Democrat (159 of 680 precincts)
Susan Wismer 3,254 - 57.31%
Joe Lowe 2,424 - 42.69%
If Harry Reid wants a South Dakota senator, he'll shut the hell up and send Rick some money.
I'm pissed at Reid for talking out of school, makes me wonder if he's a Herseth kind of Democrat.
Yep, Harry Reid wanted Herseth for sure. Of course, we will never know what Herseth wanted because she never said. Harry needs to get over that and send moolah and some help.
U.S. Senator – Republican (410 of 680 precincts)
Stace Nelson 8,075 - 17%
Mike Rounds 27,285 - 58%
Annette Bosworth 2,797 - 6%
Jason Ravnsborg 1,457 - 3%
Larry Rhoden 8,243 - 17%
Governor - Republican (410 of 680 precincts)
Lora Hubbel 8,919 - 19%
Dennis Daugaard 38,718 - 81%
Governor - Democrat (410 of 680 precincts)
Susan Wismer 9,991 - 56%
Joe Lowe7,791 - 44%
Jenny, Turn your Bosworth and Ravensborg numbers around and you nailed it.
""" So why would any Dem vote for her?""" I understand she not only voted to get re elected as in her ACA vote with Pelosi's permission, but she isolated herself from South Dakotans and it cost her. I assume the Dems at least voted Noem by abstinence.
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I will say Herseth represented the industry interests of SD well and contrary to some opinions on her intelligence here, I watched her with knowledgable questions for our industry leaders that had no easy answers more than once. I've yet to see our current Rep with a question.
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It probably matters little who is there in the reality of our current fiscal and moral mess called DC.
CH, close enough for a push.
Lanny, close enough for a pancake.
[Bows in the general direction of Jenny]
Darn Brother Breaker, I put my concession speech on another blogpost or forgot to post comment on this one. But yes you would definitely have pancakes and the best hashbrowns and Thick sliced bacon you ever ate comiing, or you would have the choice of apple pancake, which is stupendous. Good call.
I was hoping Rounds would be closer to 50%. Very low turnout at the polls I heard. I wish Nelson could have done a lot better. The doctor took a few percentage points that would probably have gone to Stace, but she knew how to get the 'poor pitiful me' press coverage on her the last few weeks. Nelson was just never able to get his game on and has been labeled as somewhat of a bully and needs to get rid of that image. if he ever intends to run again.
I'm also surprised Lowe didn't do better, but I don't think he was very serious about it or he would have visited Sioux Falls more often.
Cory,
I didn't catch everything, but I gather she asked why the ballot she received didn't have any governor primary candidates. Then she asked whether she could vote for the democratic gubernatorial candidates, and was told no.
She's not very into politics, and I don't know if she ever said "I want the Democratic primary ballot", but when she kept asking to vote for the democratic gov candidate, they kept telling her she couldn't.
I'm also curious if any Dems or Indies out there got a card from the SOS telling them where they needed to go to vote. I know Reps got them.
Wayne, report your complaint about officials refusing your wife a Dem ballot to the SOS immediately.
And SOS cards to Reps but not Dems? Do you have a copy of that GOP-encouragement card?
Forget it Cory, that we have democracy in the USA is an illusion. Last night on the evening news on PBS, they had a picture of Assad voting in the election in Syria and were making fun of what a joke it was. They were using that as an excuse to send weapons to the (non terrorist opposition, whatever that is).
Our elections are no different. We have bought and paid for politicians, and whoever has the money from the owners of our "democracy" gets to rule. The old adage of follow the golden rule, he who has the gold rules, has never been more true than it is in the USA 2014.
If Indies were denied the opportunity to cast a Democratic ballot there is a breakdown in the election worker education process. This would seem to be an easy item to educate workers on and as I have read several similar complaints it needs to be addressed in future elections. A simple sheet with frequently asked questions should clear up the issue.
If Independents had issues voting in the Democratic primary how widespread was it? Would it change the results of the primary?
I'll see if the card is still around. I honestly forget if it came from the SOS, or the county auditor.