Oh, Bob Mercer, you kidder!
Delivering some crafty political satire (or maybe just baiting me), Mercer rolls out of bed this morning to suggest that Democrat Rick Weiland can't win and should abandon the U.S. Senate race to give Independent Larry Pressler a chance of beating Republican Mike Rounds.
The Pressler candidacy however seems to be capturing the middle that Weiland hasn’t been able to crack. Rounds might or might not reach 50 percent with Pressler and Howie in the race. Howie doesn’t affect Weiland, but Pressler does. Weiland might or might not break 35 percent.
...Without much of a chance of Weiland beating Rounds, and with the Rounds campaign successfully moving through a five-way primary that was a test run for November, the move that is left for a weak Democratic organization would be to embrace Larry Pressler as the “independent-Democratic” candidate. Each day that Rick Weiland continues in the race is better and better news for Mike Rounds. With Weiland out, Rounds still has a high probability of winning against Pressler and Howie. But it then becomes a true test of what kind of Republican that South Dakota voters want to replace the last Democrat holding statewide office [Bob Mercer, "Should Rick Weiland Drop Out to Possibly Stop Mike Rounds?" Pure Pierre Politics, 2014.06.12].
Funny, Bob.
Note that Mercer must salt his assertion of Pressler's draw of Weiland voters with seems and appears. Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen the crosstabs that tell us a majority of Pressler voters would go for Weiland in a two-man race.
I also fail to find the analysis that shows Pressler has a better chance of winning than Weiland. Mercer acknowledges that Weiland is the hardest-working man in the U.S. Senate race but then merely asserts impossibility based on Weiland's two statewide losses in 1996 and 2002. Mercer acknowledges that Pressler has almost no money but fails to couple that observation with the fact that Pressler has no organization. No one walks to Senate victory by himself. Even a former Senator needs campaign volunteers to knock on doors and get out the vote, campaign staff to coordinate those volunteers, and campaign cash to get staff, volunteers, and the message out where they need to go. Even if the Democratic Party is "fading," as Mercer enjoys continually pointing out on the basis of voter registration numbers, it's still there, and a Pressler Party isn't. The South Dakota Democratic Party may be a rusty hammer, but it's a hammer, and if you really want to knock down Mike Rounds's nine-million-dollar wall, you don't put down the only hammer available and try beating Larry Pressler's head against the wall instead.
It would be easy to fall into a "You drop out!/No, you drop out!" tussle. But I want Pressler in. I maintain the position that I have consistently espoused since Pressler entered the race: the Pressler Indy bid improves Rick Weiland's chances of beating Mike Rounds. Besides, Pressler is fun, smart, and policy-oriented. He will raise the level of discourse in the campaign, and he might even tell some French jokes.
But I could be wrong. I'm willing to reconsider my position... when I see Mercer's next essay contending that Rounds should drop out to boost Gordon Howie.
Update 09:05 CDT: By the way, for those of you looking for inevitability in poll numbers, KELO points out that the South Dakota GOP has used the same polling firm, McGlaughlin and Associates, that fed House Majority Leader Eric Cantor data showing him 34 points ahead of the Tea Party professor who beat him this week 55 to 45.
Nope, I don't think you are wrong Cory. And speaking of the "Cantorism" that happened in Virginia.... many talking heads (who actually spoke to people that voted in that primary) are saying that they are getting a distinct feeling that there could be an anti-incumbent wave that will go through the country in November. (and I do think that Rounds qualifies as a "been there, done that" sort of candidate) They are getting a feel of populists, winning the day. (I think I've heard Mr Weiland say, on a few occasions, that he is a populist)
Very odd that Mercer would write this. (did he not pay attention to Virginia? everyone said Brat didn't stand a chance) Just like every election, but especially this one, turnout will be key. AND with the minimum wage issue on this ballot, it will give more folks a reason to go out and vote and just happen to check the Weiland, Robinson, and Wismer boxes at the same time. Right South Dakotans?
Daschle's man Weiland is not sporting the incumbent err? Hmmmmm, been there done that.
When I read the Mercer article I got the sense that he was giddily gearing up to write an article about the Democratic party giving up and closing up shop in SD. Not gonna happen. The thing is, Bob Mercer's job would be a lot more fun for him if he would just continue to report newsworthy stories about Republican arrogance, incompetence and corruption - which would encourage more competition in the political process thereby giving him even more to write about. He's been one of the better investigative reporters in SD lately, and he ought to keep that up.
There is an old propaganda ploy at work here, most assiduously practiced at what Llarry Kurtz refers to as the War Toilet, which is to demoralize supporters of a candidate or proposition by harping at them with the statement that they can't possibly win an election. Some people who believe that will simply not vote or will give their vote to what they regard as a lesser evil. Mercer reverts to his role as Janklow's spokesman here.
Democrats in South Dakota have been besieged with propaganda about their low voter registration numbers and the inevitability of their electoral defeats that many have given up. I know many people who do not regard South Dakota as having any political or social viability for them and center their thinking on other places and other options for investing their interests.
The conservative mindset, which rails against big government but is totally devoted to the federal subsidies which enables South Dakota to function at all, is not challenged in its thinking. Rick Weiland challenges it constantly, but the challenge is muffled by the blanket statement that his polling numbers indicate he will not win.
The dominant party in South Dakota has presided over one of the most corrupt state governments in the nation, and the majority of the people are okay with that because they think the corruption benefits them. The demoralizing propaganda is part of that corruption. The "conservatives" in South Dakota like it; the "liberals" think it is inevitable. And so, it rules.
When reached at a local steakhouse dining on contributors' money, Eric Cantor expressed shock at his defeat to an underfunded opponent not backed by K Street lobbyists. In DC everybody tells him he's great, and Virginia is close to DC. Did his constituents not get the message that he had $5 million dollars and his opponent can only afford hamburger? They traded a Cadillac for a Ford Fiesta. Unbelievable! WTF?! Bunch of ungrateful rabble. If they don't want him anymore then he's just going to stay in DC and make millions lobbying.
Mercer-tongue firmly planted in cheek
while I am told the republican parties in sd are a mess internally, I have to agree with david above, that the repubs do have some organization to their attack on this blog. attempting to out shout the opposition apparently.
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then, you win." - Gandhi. Rick has time. Stay tuned.
Bob Mercer neglects the most important component of this campaign, it has not started, yet. Weiland and Rounds were expected to be on the ballot for November. It was an interesting and amusing primary season, but the results were inevitable.
Rounds, Weiland, Pressler and Howie have not faced off in any forums or debates, Mercer maybe underestimating Weiland when the campaign starts coming to a head this fall.
It is silly to think that Weiland will heed Mercer's advice and dropout. Rick is just getting started.
If it is Mercer's intent to keep Mike Rounds out of the senate, which is noble, he would get behind Rick to make sure that happens.
Mercer's message is a joke or an appeal to imbeciles, completely void of logic or even knowledge of recent history. Rick Weiland is now campaigning a second time to every town in South Dakota. He's making every right move that an underdog candidate should make up to this point, and his luck can turn to raise the money needed to win. If such a totally silly idea was worth considering, it might have been worth considering last fall when he started the massive effort to campaign and talk with voters in every South Dakota town.
And what has Larry Pressler done since he filed to run as an independent? Virtually nothing. I don't expect Larry to do more than show up to debates (which Chicken Mike will shut down by not showing up) and hit a few parades and the State Fair. Pressler hasn't earned anyone's vote yet and I doubt he'll invest sufficient time to make any difference by November.
How about Rounds drop out. And we replace him w/ Kristi Noem. And then put either Stace or Chris Nelson in her spot. As long as we're having a musical chairs fantasy that's what I want to see.
you crack my face, bree: marry me?
Mr. Mercer is a funny young man and he likes to stir up things.
Mercer laughing.
Mercer laughing.
Larry, can the conventions vote to replace the candidates on the ballot?
they can vote but it would smell like a resolution to me, but hey: betty olson just endorsed shantel so the devils are in the entrails.
Do you think Weiland will drop out for someone? Daschle maybe? PP keeps implying it.
PP would pay five bucks to watch chickens have sex, Bree: get a grip, woman.
Dan Kaiser said he would support "the Republican nominee" for U.S. Senate.
You're right: he's just trying to drum up uncertainty with the Weiland placeholder stuff.
South Dakota needs a "None of the above" ballot option. It would send a message to both parties. Colorado just had an election with the "none of the above" percentage exceeded the percentage gained by any human on the ballot.
There are many perspectives on the Cantor defeat. I don't think the best perspective will show up until after the next regular election. Predicting much or trying to explain much with that election for either party, TEA-Koch party, or independents is probably yet a fool's errand.
""""Predicting much or trying to explain much with that election for either party, TEA-Koch party, or independents is probably yet a fool's errand."""" Agreed, Wiken. One would wonder why the Dems are spending so much time with it? ;)