Northern Plains News and Nielson Brothers Polling have released the third round of polling for their July survey of South Dakota voters. Like the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, NBP finds the Democrat trailing in the U.S. House race. But Republican Congresswoman Kristi Noem's double-digit lead over Corinna Robinson offers one small surprise:
- Rep. Kristi Noem: 53.9%
- Corinna Robinson: 35.8%
- undecided: 10.2%
Noem's lead on Robinson is 18 percentage points, three points larger than the margin by which she beat Matt Varilek in 2012. (Lest we get too excited, around this point in 2012, Nielson Brothers found Varilek within one point of Noem.) Governor Dennis Daugaard's lead over Democrat Susan Wismer is 24 percentage points. Robinson is closer to Noem than Wismer is to Daugaard, even though Robinson has lower name recognition than Wismer (41.2% to Wismer's 48.9%—both distressingly low numbers with three months to go until Election Day).
Something stranger is going on in Robinson's favorability numbers:
Out of the minority who do recognize Robinson's name, folks with an unfavorable impression outnumber those with a favorable impression by more than two to one. Robinson's favorability gap is slightest among Dems, less than a percentage point. Over five times as many Republicans say "unfavorable" about Robinson than say favorable; among Indies, more than three times as many. That seems like a lot of dislike for generally polite prairie folk (especially those Indies) to express about someone who hasn't done much harm to anyone. I don't know whose dog she kicked, but Robinson better make sure she smiles really big for the remaining 58.8% of voters who are waiting to get to know her.
NBP finds Republicans favoring Noem over Robinson 6.6 to 1, Democrats favoring Robinson over Noem by a less passionate 3.5 to 1, and Independents leaning Noem 1.1 to 1. It wouldn't hurt to change some Republican minds, but Robinson should gin her base up to the unity the GOP is showing for their gal, then get to know those Indies, who bring the biggest batch of undecideds.
Todd's not playing fair. Why do we have to wait until Friday to learn what the poll found about Noem's job approval rating?
In the words of every major character in Star Wars, I've got a bad feeling about this.
Someone ought to do a poll of the people who claim they dislike Robinson and see if they just dislike Dems in general or what. I didn't see anything specific about her to dislike. She doesn't have a political record of doing nothing and just voting party lines.
The secret is to get some tight jeans, wiggle your butt and sit on a horse for a quick commercial. That is about as deep as west river folks look into a candidate! It sure has nothing to do with substance!
Spot on Loren! Gotta give Kristi credit for doing that.
LIKE button for Loren.
Gosh, thanks Loren for the insightful analysis ... and 'Flipper' too. Did I fall down the rabbit hole into P Powers' morass?
mike from iowa, west river people like NOem because they hate the Black Hills and all those damn trees. West river folks want those trees cleared so they can put some moo cows on that ground for little or no costs to graze them. NOem voted that way recently, just before she came home because she be so tired from wearing those tight jeans and all that wiggling. I am not so sure that the tourist industry is all that happy with her, but you never know about those folks like the Wall Drug people. There are no forests in Wall. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/money-allocated-suppressing-fires-run-out
NOem and the rest of the republicans idea of fire suppression is to cut the forest down or simply let'er burn baby burn.
It's official, NOem is chicken and has no convictions.
http://www.ksfy.com/story/26217252/noem-wont-participate-in-south-dakota-state-fair-debate
The thing is, why should Noem engage Robinson in debates? She has nothing to gain. We've seen her performance in past debates and it has been less than stellar. We also know she has a commanding lead in the polls, and since she has that litle "(R)" after her name she really doesn't have any legitimate fear in losing this election.
If the polls showed Robinson within striking distance, Noem might bite and engage her, but right now it just doesn't make sense politically. Noem can vote the party line, she can leave the important work in Washington while she takes a five week break, she can vote to end the ACA 50 times, she can ignore important issues like immigration reform and the Middle East conflicts... none of it matters because she knows as long as she has her looks at her party affiliation she can continue to get elected.
Sure I'd love her to debate Robinson at the State Fair and every week leading up to the election, but since there isn't any potential benefit to Noem it just isn't in her best interests.
Can anyone really blame her? Before you answer, think back to Senator Johnson's last campaign and how he didn't bother to engage in debates either. Yes I understand his stroke was a large factor and he had concerns about his speaking ability, but had the poll numbers showed he was vulnerable I'm sure he would have made an effort. He didn't feel it was necessary so he avoided them. Same is true for Noem. Like it or not, it is smart politics.