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Poll: Weiland Within 8 Points of Rounds, Stands to Gain from Pressler Defections

Last updated on 2014.08.17

Public Policy Polling does us the favor of paying attention to our Senate race again.

Well, actually, they do Rick Weiland the favor: the Democrat's campaign team asked PPP to revisit South Dakota's U.S. Senate race, and PPP obliged.

Surveying 726 likely voters on August 12–13 (and slightly over-sampling Republicans and undersampling Democrats), PPP finds Republican Mike Rounds still leading Weiland, but not by much. Rounds pulls 39% versus Weiland's 31%.

Local Nielson Brothers Polling found Rounds leading Weiland 43–30 in late July. PPP's April 30–May 1 poll found very similar numbers: 38% for Rounds, 28% for Weiland. The margin of error here is ±3.6%, so the PPP numbers could suggest that no one has really changed minds all summer (Oh, woe! All those billboards, parades, and quality music videos, for naught!)

PPP does reinforce the thesis that Pressler, who polls at 16%, is drinking more of Weiland's milkshake than Rounds's. However, PPP puts the straw in Pressler's glass and says Weiland may take a big slurp:

If Pressler’s support declines in the final stretch of the race, as tends to happen with independent candidates, Weiland stands to be the beneficiary. His favorability with Pressler supporters is a 40/20 spread, compared to 18/74 for Rounds [Tom Jensen, "Rounds Still Under 40% in South Dakota Senate Race, Weiland More Popular," Public Policy Polling, 2014.08.15].

It's not just Pressler voters who don't like Rounds. The former governor has the worst favorability numbers of the bunch: 44% of the sample say they like Mike, while 48% do not. Weiland is proving a likable guy, with a 42–27 spread. He still struggles with name recognition compared to Rounds, but PPP finds that among voters who do know Weiland, Weiland leads Rounds 42% to 33%. Keep knocking on doors, Rick!

Screen Shot 2014-08-16 at 6.47.44Related Rabble-Rousing: And keep singing! Let's see if Rickstock can help boost that name recognition. The Madville Times statewide tour goes to Piedmont today for the big musical fundraiser hosted by Rick's brother, Dr. Kevin Weiland, at the good doctor's hacienda at 5045 Lofty Pines Road. Dr. Kevin reports that the big wheeled stage is up! $9 gets you in the gate to hear nine hours of good outdoor music, from 1 p.m. to 10 p.m. And Madville Times readers, don't forget to sport your yellow flowers so we can recognize each other and show some flower power for Rick!

28 Comments

  1. SDBlue 2014.08.16

    Wouldn't it be nice if Pressler dropped out and endorsed Weiland?

  2. Kal Lis 2014.08.16

    For a guy who was giving out a steampunk vibe when steampunk wasn't cool, your asking your readers to go a bit heavy on the 60s with that flower thing aren't you?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdvCqUguIh8

    Hope everyone enjoys Rickstock.

  3. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.08.16

    Flowers are much better summerwear than Victorian suits with Gatling-gun top hats. :-)

  4. Tim 2014.08.16

    "-Weiland has the best net favorability of any of the candidates at +15 with 42% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. That represents a 10 point improvement for Weiland since our April poll. Pressler is actually the second most popular candidate in the race with a +9 favorability at 42/33, and despite leading Rounds has the worst favorability at -4 with 44% of voters seeing him positively but 48% giving him poor marks."
    Is there any chance that, when in the voting booth, people will just say to themselves, "Just can't do 6 more years of Rounds", and vote for Weiland?

  5. daleb 2014.08.16

    The rino's will whine, let them... All the Dems should pretend to be conservatives. They will get more traction there from detractors then anything else. It works for the republicans it will work for democrats.

  6. grudznick 2014.08.16

    Rounds probably hates Pressler voters more than they hate him.

    I want to know how much free beer can be had at rickfest and if there are scholarships available to waive the entry tax.

  7. Roger Cornelius 2014.08.16

    grudz once again demonstrates the limitations of Republican thinking.

    This poll is encouraging and seems to reflect what is happening in our state.

    I look forward to Chad Haber, Gordon Howie, Mike Myers, and Lora Hubbel to continue chat up Mike Rounds' corruption and help increase the Weiland support by election day.

    Has anyone else noticed that Rounds is no longer talking the repeal Obamacare script?

  8. judy judy 2014.08.16

    Cory,

    A correction to your post. Nielson Bros. had Weiland at 30 percent not 40 as you state in this post, giving Rounds a 13 point advantage vs. PPP's 8 points. MOE for both polls overlap and basically confirm the other's results. Nielson's poll was conducted 3 weeks before PPP's and prior to the recent numerous "15 second" quick ads of Weiland and some heavy advertising by Pressler. A cynic would argue the PPP poll was timed to follow Wieland's advertising since the same coincidence occurred when PPP polled the South Dakota senate race in April.

    IMHO both polls reveal Round's weakness and open up the possibility the race may turn into a real contest if Weiland continues to work smart and hard and can corral sufficient resources.

  9. owen reitzel 2014.08.16

    I think Rick's message is starting to get through, plus Rounds remains in hiding.
    Rick is talking to the average Joe across the state while Rounds plays it safe by going to Republican functions where the hard questions won't be asked.
    anybody seen the million dollar Grassroots RV?

  10. grudznick 2014.08.16

    Soon the evening will grow older and we have no answers, none, to the question of how much free beer can be had and what kind it is. I have been emailed a map of how a fellow might sneak in but I can't walk hills like that. I am still in need of a scholarship.

  11. Deb Geelsdottir 2014.08.16

    Grudz, if you come to Rickstock, I'll buy your ticket. How's that for a scholarship?! I'll be there 6:30ish. Buy your ticket and I'll reimburse you. After all, it's for a good cause!

    C'money Grudz! Show your conservative face!
    I just bought my fake yellow clip-on sunflower. It's a thing of beauty. Just like yourself.

  12. 96 Tears 2014.08.16

    Rounds Fatigue.

    Name three accomplishments Mike Rounds completed in eight years as Governor that made South Dakota a better place. Okay ... name two.

    Now, compare them to Mike Rounds' disasters: His Benda/EB-5 Scam, the $120 million debt he left after he spent Obama's ARA bailouts, the Hyperion "green oil refinery" farce, the incomprehensible pardon for pregnant woman murderer Joaquin Ramos, and special jobs and government favors for family and pals.

  13. grudznick 2014.08.16

    Ms. G,

    As you well know I am not a fellow who insists on that brother stuff that snuffs down on women. So thank you.

    But I am now at the elk steakhouse and had my granddaughter drive me here. After my belly is full and it is dark watch for me hobbling about. My granddaughter would pay but I can't have any money going to this Rick fellow. He is bad.

  14. Bill Fleming 2014.08.16

    You missed out, grudz. I saw Cory, Deb, Roger and Larry all standing there in a group looking for you. (But not very hard.)

  15. Roger Cornelius 2014.08.16

    Bill,
    It was great to finally meet you and other Madville greats like Cory, Deb, and Larry. It was even better not to have any old disgruntled Republicans there that wouldn't cough up $9 to hear an evening of great music.

    Rick is a great talent and will be an even greater senator.

  16. Deb Geelsdottir 2014.08.16

    Grudz, YOU BIG CHICKEN! Where were you?! I did look for you. I had a completely delightful time talking with Roger and Cory and Bill and Larry.

    BCB, you said you'd be there. I didn't see you. I was looking forward to meeting you. Rats. Cory told me you were there earlier. I'm glad you were there for awhile. It's just that your timing was bad - from my point of view. I'll be here in SD one more day, tomorrow.

    BTW, Rickstock was very well done and the vibe was excited, happy and enthusiastic. C'mon you SD Democrats, you can do this! You Can Win Elections in SD. Kick ass!

  17. JeniW 2014.08.17

    Question to ask Rounds: What did he do while he was Governor to make sure that every South Dakotan be able to purchase health insurance, including those who are homeless, and those living on the reservations?

    What are exactly does he plan as an alternative to ACA? Has he developed a plan of action to deal with the health care issues? I want to see his plan, not someone else's plan. We need to see if he is up to the challenge of coming up with detailed strategy plans.

    He is concerned about government spending, bu did he not as governor willingly accept federal dollars, and the stimulus monies, which put the country into further debt?

  18. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.08.17

    Owen, notice the excuse Rounds gives for hiding in the article CK links for us:

    "Rounds will participate in a debate at Dakotafest on Wednesday in Mitchell, which he said will be the start of a new phase of the campaign, as students start going back to school and the election gets closer.

    "'People start to refocus on what's going on,' he said. 'It's when people expect candidates to be out knocking on doors'" [Chris Mueller, "Rounds Lauds Wessington Springs Recovery Effort," Mitchell Daily Republic, 2014.08.14].

    Translation: Stop giving Rick credit he's getting for touring the state so ambitiously! No one's paying attention! Candidates shouldn't knock on doors until I say they should! Waaaah!

  19. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.08.17

    And Judy, yes! Thank you for that correction. I have edited the above to reflect the correct NBP numbers, which were in my head but didn't make it to my fingers. :-)

  20. Roger Cornelius 2014.08.17

    Bill, actually Deb, Larry, Cory and I were laying in wait for grudz to show up so we could pants him.

  21. Jenny 2014.08.17

    Some Madvillians got to hang out? :) Sounds like a fun time. This is one thing I like about the internet - getting to meet like-minded people from all over.

  22. grudznick 2014.08.17

    Bill pantsed me some years ago and still has not purged the images from his brain.

  23. Deb Geelsdottir 2014.08.17

    Yeah Roger! Actually, I'm not sure I was properly psychologically prepared for the sigh of a pantsless Grudz.

  24. Bill Fleming 2014.08.17

    Right. Here's what grudz has in his pants= Elmer Fudd and Daffy Duck.

  25. Deb Geelsdottir 2014.08.17

    Hahahaha!

    ("Your comment is too short. Please say something useful.")

  26. mike from iowa 2014.08.18

    Bill,I kinda get the bald head thingie from Elmer,but the large bill and black feathers with a lisp is freakin' me out. Okay,I figured out the spitting lisp,what about the bill and feathers?

  27. Bill Fleming 2014.08.18

    Mike, it's an enigma, wrapped in a mystery, wrapped in bacon.

Comments are closed.