Press "Enter" to skip to content

Weiland Seven Points Behind Rounds; Pressler, Howie Gaining

Mike Rounds isn't the only person asking to change his answer. South Dakota Republicans are starting to wish they could change their nominee (where have you gone, Larry Rhoden?).

Public Policy Polling finds support for Mike Rounds has dropped to 35%.

35%. 35%. After two years of campaigning, Mike Rounds, the once and supposedly future king, the Nine Million Dollar Man, is at 35%.

And PPP ran this survey (on behalf of Rick Weiland's Democratic campaign, 703 likely voters, margin of error ±3.7 ponits) September 29 and 30, before we learned Rounds told the Legislature a falsehood about being served on EB-5 litigation.

PPP finds Rick Weiland seven points back, at 28%.

Seven points back. Seven points back. Rick Weiland, whom Harry Reid thinks doesn't stand a chance, is just seven points back.

Now it's worth noting that Weiland hasn't moved within the margin of error in PPP's three scans of the electorate this year. Independent Larry Pressler is Rocket Man, jumping from 15% in May and 16% in August to a 24% that no Independent with no money should be getting right now.

Even Independent conservative insurgent Gordon Howie gets good news:

Rounds is losing supporting on the right to Howie. Howie’s doubled his share of the Republican vote over the last month from 6% to 12%, pushing his support to the point where it provides a real threat to Rounds. Rounds has a tepid 62/31 favorability even with GOP voters, reflecting his weak 55% showing in the June primary [Tom Jensen, "Rounds Support Falls to 35% in South Dakota Race," Public Policy Polling, 2014.10.02].

In no normal election should Gordon Howie be ticking upward as the election approaches. But Mike Rounds is botching his candidacy so badly that apparently anything can happen in South Dakota's Senate race.

71 Comments

  1. Bill Fleming 2014.10.03

    Powers's "senility" attack on Pressler today sounds like there may be confirmation of Pressler's ascent in the GOP internal polls. Why else would he launch such a vicious attack? Oh wait, I forgot. He's Pat Powers.

  2. Roger Cornelius 2014.10.03

    Bill,
    Powers over on the Dump Site and his faithful Anonymous followers are seriously bashing Pressler.
    Pressler has obviously become a serious threat to Rounds and one the SDGOP is taking seriously.

  3. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.10.03

    Start making personal attacks on Pressler, and he gains five points. Wrong move, GOP: that only feeds the emotional trend that favors him.

  4. Roger Cornelius 2014.10.03

    Agreed Cory,
    Attacking Pressler will not help Rounds.
    If John Tristan and his high caliber of intelligent Republicans have been backing off Rounds, more are soon to follow.
    According to this poll, there seems to be a lot of John Tristan's out there that have had enough of Rounds.

  5. Curt 2014.10.03

    Anyone who dares to attack the former Senator's mental acuity does so at his/her peril. Let Mr Pressler do that for you. Who among us believes Larry was at the top of his game when he lost this seat 18 yrs ago? Do you think he's sharper now than he was then? Seriously? Are you? (Cory: Don't answer).
    The concluding paragraph in the post is spot-on. This is no normal election, and G Howie is no normal candidate. I doubt that any of the other three candidates have supporters as loyal and steadfast as Howie's. Have you talked to those folks?

  6. lesliengland 2014.10.03

    I try not to. we have sib here.

  7. Dave Baumeister 2014.10.03

    How completely embarrassing would it be to be elected to high public office when a HUGE MAJORITY of your constituents didn't vote for you? If Rounds is elected, he will know that where ever he goes and whoever he speaks to in the state, around 65% of the audience will NOT have voted for him. What could possibly motivate a person like that to ever do anything that would improve a state where two-thirds of the people do not like him????

  8. Dave Baumeister 2014.10.03

    When people start to think of that, Rounds will lose votes at an even faster race. I just saw Pressler's add where he points out, if elected he will be returning with his 18 year seniority. I love Rick Weiland, but that is a pretty powerful argument. I personally like the idea John Thune would then be South Dakota's "junior" senator!

  9. Dave Baumeister 2014.10.03

    I hate to monopolize this, but, Curt, when Larry Pressler came to talk to me at The Yankton County Observer about his candidacy for House a few years back, I came away feeling that he was one of the smartest people I had ever talked to. (Just in case you are wondering, as a debate coach, a teacher and a former newspaper publisher, I have talked to very many extremely smart people).

  10. Roger Cornelius 2014.10.03

    Larry Pressler is a Republican, regardless of the I after his name.

  11. Bill Fleming 2014.10.03

    Mr. Baumeister, it will be the nature of this particular race that whoever wins will almost certainly do so with a minority vote. There are four candidates in the field, and SD doesn't have a runoff (sad to say.) Even worse, around half of the people eligible may not actually vote. Just sayin'.

    The worst scenario is when the race is essentially over in the primary, because the other party didn't field a candidate. A circumstance not uncommon in our fair state.

  12. Curt 2014.10.03

    So, Mr Baumeister, you interviewed the former Senator when he was running for the House? What was Mr Pressler's age then? And now?
    No one - as far as I am aware - is claiming that the former Fulbright Scholar WAS not intelligent.

  13. mike from iowa 2014.10.03

    Dave B-do you really think Rounds would waste a minute of time wondering or worrying about how he got annointed? If he had a shred of decency or a conscience,he might do the honorable thing and stand down. Just my opinion. :)

  14. Jody Severson 2014.10.03

    Rounds faces a classic problem in a multi-candidate race. Candidate A attacks Candidate B. Candidate B loses votes. But they are more likely to go to Candidate C or Candidate D than to Candidate A. If Rounds attacks Pressler, he probably drives votes to Weiland or Howie, and meanwhile Candidate A sees his own negatives go up if people don't like all of A's negative campaigning.

  15. Don Coyote 2014.10.03

    @ Dave Baumeister. It didn't seem to bother Bill Clinton who got only 43% of the popular vote in 1992. In fact Clinton didn't get a majority of the vote in '96 either.

    And it didn't seem to bother Jesse Ventura either. He managed only 37% in his governor's race.

    It's the nature of the beast in a first-past-the-post election with more than two candidates.

  16. Bill Fleming 2014.10.03

    Halleluja Alert: Sibby's over on SDWC busting Rounds chops and whipping up Howie votes. Bless his little pea-pickin' heart. Go Sibson.

    Now, get with program grudznick. No more ass kissing' over there buddy, or you're off my free tater tots list.

  17. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.10.03

    Curt, I've spoken with Howie people. It's always an adventure. :-)

  18. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.10.03

    Sibby stumping for Howie? Praise the Lord (the Dark Lord, of the Sith)! Watch Sibby become the October surprise, going on a statewide blog tour and rousting up 25,000 Howie voters to tip the balance.

  19. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.10.03

    That majority/mandate question is important, but as Bill notes, it will apply to whoever wins this crazy race. I agree with Mike that Rounds won't give a rip; he'll arrogantly imagine he's been named king and strut about with his power. I'd like to believe that Rick and Larry would at least work to build bridges and earn the majority's trust (and easier task, since they would have a majority who would be united by their shared relief in keeping Rounds from winning).

    If Gordon wins, he might be too shocked to govern. :-D

  20. 96Tears 2014.10.03

    Mr. Severson is correct. With this many people in the final countdown, it does resemble a game of Whack-a-mole when candidates go negative. For Rounds, the attacks are primarily being made on the front pages of daily newspapers. A virtual quicksand pit. As he sinks, it's interesting to see where the loud, uber-right wing is going and where the more centralist, establishment Republicans are going.

    Pressler had his bead on independents until this last week when he came out of the closet and reconfirmed he will vote to kill Roe v. Wade. I doubt he does any polling. It's just Larry being the GOP hack he always was, seeking a port in the black hearts of his party's extreme right. This tacking to the right will cost him votes from independents, centralist Republicans and the Buhbuhs who want government to leave their women and their cattle alone.

    It should also serve as a warning to all progressives that Pressler's claim of seniority will only benefit the Senate Republicans, who are expected to win a majority this year. He's got something they want (another caucus member) and they've got something he wants (status). With the Democrats, Pressler gets nothing.

    By the way, has any media fact-checked Pressler's seniority claim as to whether it applies this long after leaving office in 1996?

  21. Jana 2014.10.03

    Mr. Bill, bless your heart for busting Troy's chops over at SDWC.

    I especially loved this out of Troy's comments:

    "Pressler’s main argument is that he is going to leverage his seniority into power. His answer to you will insure that he not only has no seniority but will be the least powerful Senator possible.

    As a former Senator, he should know that but maybe he was banking on you guys being so dumb you didn’t recognize its stupidity and he wouldn’t have to answer the question. As they say, you can’t under-estimate the stupid in a room full of know-it-alls. :)

    P.S. For those reading this, I know a lot of the people in Bill’s group (either personally or by reputation)."

    Troy then goes on to tout how impressed the nation will be with Round's experience as a former State Legislator, State Majority Leader and, as of yet, unindicted former Governor.

    Heck Troy, if he's good enough Rounds can rise to be the Majority Leader of the most powerful deliberative body in civilized society and then we'll throw his butt out.

    Say, weren't Kristi and John recognized for being hot? South Dakota values for sure.

  22. Jana 2014.10.03

    Oh and Troy, isn't John Thune's #3 position in the Senate that of head cheerleader for the party? He's been nothing more than a spokesmodel since he got in and show pony Kristi has not exactly stood out as a leader by any stretch of the imagination.

    But then they were banking on you and your group to not recognize lack of substance with the cloud of platitudes they were blowing up your butt.

    P.S. For those reading this, I know a lot of the people in Troy's group (either personally or by reputation).

  23. Lynn 2014.10.03

    Jana, That guy is so full of himself!

  24. mike from iowa 2014.10.03

    http://www.themudflats.net/archives/44578

    Jana,Shannyn Moore from the Mudflats.net explains why Alaska would have the lowest ranked sinator if carpetbagger Dan Sullivan from Ohio/Maryland/Alaska? wins Alaska's Junior seat. Very astute young woman who is well versed on women's rights and whitey wingnut pols.

  25. Jana 2014.10.03

    To be fair, Mike, Michael or Marion has been on the national stage when it comes to policy and he was able to deliver Common Core!

    Have at it Sibby, Howie, Stace and any true conservative that has the courage to not hold their nose and vote for Mike, Michael or Marion.

  26. mike from iowa 2014.10.03

    96 Tears-I believe one of our excellent Bills did a seniority rundown a week or two ago. Don't remember who it was,but it was informative,naturally.

  27. Lynn 2014.10.03

    Jana I mean't Troy also. lol

  28. mike from iowa 2014.10.03

    Found it.

    Bill Dithmer
    2014.09.22 AT 15:06
    " The Senate has eleven factors that are used to determine seniority in the chamber, and they are:

    Amount of time serving as United States Senator in a consecutive manner

    Having been a United States Senator at a previous time. In other words, having served in non-consecutive terms

    The length of time that a Senator has served in prior non-consecutive terms

    Senator was a former member of the United States House of Representatives

    Length of time the Senator served in the House of Representatives

    The Senator was a former President

    The Senator was a former Vice President

    The Senator was a former cabinet member

    The Senator was a former state governor

    The population of the state that the Senator represents as recorded by the most recent census from when such Senator took office in the United States Senate

    Alphabetical according to last name, which is used in the case of two Senators being sworn in on the same day, representing the same state, and have same credentials or political experience in their careers." http://constitution.laws.com/senate/seniority

    I'm not saying LP is the best man, only that he would have more seniority.

    When one looks at this alone, " The population of the state that the Senator represents as recorded by the most recent census from when such Senator took office in the United States Senate." You will find that size does matter, and SD needs ever advantage it can get.

    The Blindman

  29. Jana 2014.10.03

    Then there's this "being the junior senator may be disadvantageous if the senior senator is also from the same party."

    Mike, Michael or Marion has been advertising how he is going to work with John Thune...I'm guessing he will either be shaking pom poms with him or maybe just spotting him on those difficult jumps.

  30. WayneF 2014.10.03

    MMRounds at SD State Fair "debate" grinned the whole hour like he'd eaten a plateful of excrement. He had nothing of substance to say in response to questions and challenges. Is this really the best we can do? Sad.

  31. Jana 2014.10.03

    Cory, can we do a poll on how genuine everyone thinks Mike, Michael or Marion's smile is?

  32. PrairieLady - Gayle 2014.10.03

    Jana....The MR smile reminds me of a photo I took of my daughter as a toddler. She was hiding behind a large houseplant, while filling her diaper and grinning at me........ as I was asking her if she wanted to go sit on the potty chair.

  33. Roger Cornelius 2014.10.03

    Want to know why Mike Rounds is smiling?

    He knows he has the Republican Party by the short hairs this close to the election, his supporters can't back off and it is getting more difficult to justify his actions as governor.

    Rounds has every reason to smile, as fake as it is.

  34. Mike 2014.10.03

    Janna wrote

    Troy then goes on to tout how impressed the nation will be with Round's experience as a former State Legislator, State Majority Leader and, as of yet, unindicted former Governor.

    Heck Troy, if he's good enough Rounds can rise to be the Majority Leader of the most powerful deliberative body in civilized society and then we'll throw his butt out.

    Troy has such a superiority complex I am surprised he mixes amongst us proles. The guy must own stock in milorganite, because he certainly believes in his own bullshit.

  35. grudznick 2014.10.03

    I have not had the pleasure of meeting young Mr. Jones, and have no idea about any of his complexes, but I have had the displeasure of spending a lot of time with Mr. Howie, and if you want to talk about superiority complexes and people inept or far less ept and already indicted then I would say Mr. Howie is your man. If you want not Mr. Howie, and you are not a crazy libbie socialist, you have some tough choices ahead of you.

    * disclaimer: I once sent Mr. Howie money and I have regretted like the time I had the special chilies on my omelet, let me warn you do not send money to Mr. Howie. Fair warning.

  36. Lynn 2014.10.03

    Mike it just shows his own insecurity.

  37. Mike 2014.10.03

    Lynn,

    Sadly, I suppose it does. There is never a Troy Jones comment without a story about himself. To live in a world where oneself is a living legend must be a lonely existence. I only bring up Troy because PP is obviously a pile of feces, and deserves no mention in regards to anything. Unless one is discussing feces I suppose. It's not a topic I find myself expounding on often.

  38. Roger Cornelius 2014.10.03

    grudz,
    Actually there is a choice in this race, only one choice for Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. That choice is a vote for giving South Dakota long lost integrity, Rick Weiland is that choice.

  39. Francis Schaffer 2014.10.03

    I see there is need for a support group for people who have to deal with people who are afflicted with Dunning Kruger. I will start one here in town and let you know how it out.

  40. Roger Cornelius 2014.10.03

    I've had quite a few exchanges with Troy over the past year, his defense of Rounds and the SDGOP always comes down to, if I said it, it is true.
    Troy excuses for Rounds and his scandal are becoming weaker by the day, he is getting himself lost in technicalities and parsing words.

  41. Rae Lynn 2014.10.03

    Heard Grandpa Don had been lobbyist for oil companies. Anyone know if that's true?

  42. jerry 2014.10.03

    Grandpa Don, was a shill for the oil industry.

  43. Taunia 2014.10.03

    Was I the only one who had to look up the definition for Mike's "milorganite" or Francis' "Dunning Kruger"?

    Fascinating thread. If 1/10th of Cory's readers would canvass for Weiland just one day a week for the next 4, Weiland could do this.

  44. Jana 2014.10.04

    The GOED/Northern Beef/EB-5 scandal isn't going away any time soon, but Mike is bravely running away from it. and wants to talk issues, so we should help him out as he is a foot wide and an inch deep in his policy positions.

    I’m guessing the issue has to fit on a bumper sticker for him to grasp it, so let's help him out.

    Keystone Pipeline: It's no longer about energy independence or cheap oil, his new flavor of the day is that we need the rail cars to move corn! He and John are now big government hawks wanting to step all over the free market and take over the rail system.

    Of course when you cut the weakest deal of any state with KXL, did you at least demand they use made in American steel in their pipeline…ewwps.

    By the way, what is the real number of jobs that the first Keystone pipeline delivered to South Dakota vs what we were promised.

    Oh yeah...and just flat out admit that you are all for a foreign company having the right to take land away from South Dakota family farms if it means you make money and look good.

    Next up: The Balanced Budget...an oldy but a goody for pandering ideologues.

  45. Jana 2014.10.04

    Back to Mike, Michael or Marion and the issues.

    Balanced budget: Oh puhleez, you were only able to balance the budget with slight of hand accounting tricks and the money from the federal government...but tell us how you would pull this one off. I'm sure you can detail down to the penny how this would affect everyone in South Dakota...so tell us about the intended and unintended consequences of this whopper of a campaign promise! That's what I thought...

    Of course there is this - A balanced budget amendment would take away the government's ability to use tried-and-true forms of "countercyclical" fiscal policy and force spending cuts just when stimulus is needed most. Recessions would be longer and more severe, and our long-term growth prospects would be worse.

    And before I forget, how would we pay for all those wars your party wants to dive into with other peoples kids and a budget to balance?

  46. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.10.04

    Does Pressler have any guarantee that either caucus will respect his seniority and offer him plum committee assignments? In a really closely divided Senate, can't we expect anyone we send from South Dakota to enjoy similar pull in close votes?

  47. larry kurtz 2014.10.04

    Why would a senator not expected to campaign for reelection do anything but revise a failed past?

  48. Jaka 2014.10.04

    SD needs to realize, that if Round (Rounds) were elected the vetting he would undergo by the national media over EB5 etc would so damage him and possibly remove him and then Schieffer would be appointed by DD which could even be worse...........

  49. Open Mind 2014.10.04

    Curt: I have no respect for you. Your comments have a serious tone of age discrimination. I suspect you think too highly of yourself, and that when you reach Pressler's age, you will become indignant if anyone ever insinuates your "age impaired." I suggest that you get out of the box you are in (peers your age??) and spend more time with a cross section of people. Or maybe your problem is that you never matured. Good luck in living life.

  50. Taunia 2014.10.04

    "Open Mind": Not unlike when Republicans hit bottom of the barrel when they happily threw darts at all handicapped and disabled persons when they lampooned Senator Johnson's mental and physical capabilities after an aneurysm, right?

  51. JeniW 2014.10.04

    I remember that Taunia! The attack on Senator Johnson was not only an attack on him, it was an attack on all individuals with disabilities.

  52. 96Tears 2014.10.04

    Taunia and JeniW - OM is all wet on this. If OM had actually read Curt's statements for meaning and accuracy, OM would realize Curt was referencing what all of us knew and still know about Larry Pressler: He's an odd duck with tons of stories from Republicans and Democrats who have visited personally with all know. Curt's point that LP's absent mindedness and flaky behavior does not improve with age, which is a fair point.

    Above all else, LP is and was a self-serving panderer of the simplest order. He is and was a Republican. If he is elected, he's going to pander to the majority party and I doubt he's going to be a respected elder statesman because people in D.C. also know LP to be odd, absent-minded and flaky from back in the old days.

    Bottom line: Pressler had his 18 years in office. He got fired by voters in 1996. Maybe it's time for some new and trustworthy.

  53. 96Tears 2014.10.04

    Larry Pressler is the new Bert Tollefson.

  54. Bill Fleming 2014.10.04

    If Dems wanted a senator who has been there and done well we would be trying to draft Tom Daschle. Who knows, maybe then we could actually have a party in this state again. Any Dem thinking of voting for someone other than Rick has some political soul searching to do. Pressler will get plenty of Indy and GOP votes. He doesn't need ours. Besides, we don't have any to spare :-)

  55. Lynn 2014.10.04

    Bill it looks like from DWC a few Republicans have dropped their support for Rounds and are supporting Pressler. Good for them!

  56. Bill Fleming 2014.10.04

    Lynn, sounds like lots moderate of R's are doing it. Pressler is their new "go-to" guy. Most (but not all) that I talk to say they're not going to vote for Rick. Understandable. Larry's a basically an old fachioned moderate Republican (the good kind ;-). Rick isn't. So the people leaving the Rounds camp are moving to Presslers. This is a very unusual race. Don't remember anything like it before.

  57. mike from iowa 2014.10.04

    Question. When Daschle was thinking about running for the WH,whitey wingnut in SoDak passed a bill saying Daschle had to give up his Senate seat to run. If the vote for Senate looks like weiland might win a four way race,what is to stop whitey wingnut from passing a run-off bill to give their party the best opportunity to win?

  58. JeniW 2014.10.04

    I can believe that Pressler is at heart a Republican, even though he now claims to be an Independent, just like Lora Hubbel is still at heart a Republican even though she changed her voter registration to Independent.

    The question that Republicans have to decide is which of the two, Rounds or Pressler, is the less of the two evils if they are going to stick with voting Republican?

  59. Lynn 2014.10.04

    Bill I don't think Rounds should of run in the first place. Either he was so arrogant that he thought EB-5 would be a non-issue and he could be crowned king or he and the "gang" felt confident they had all the loose ends tied up and they could quickly deflect or discredit anyone who questioned. Instead it's been a long grind for that lil fella getting hammered by Stace Nelson, Richard Benda's unfortunate passing, Fed investigation, running from debates and voters asking questions. Larry and Gordon are all they have left to trust and Larry has been there.

    My vote will be for Rick.

  60. Bill Fleming 2014.10.04

    We'll, technically 3 JeniW. Mr. Howie claims he is the ONLY true Repub in the race.

  61. Bill Fleming 2014.10.04

    Lynn, to your point, attorney Charlie Abourezk posted the SD law on perjury here on Madville the other day. Did you see it? It might be worth a second look.

  62. Lynn 2014.10.04

    I'll try and find it. Thank you

  63. mike from iowa 2014.10.04

    Charlie Abourezk
    2014.10.03 AT 12:42
    SDCL 22-29-1. Perjury--Violation: "Any person who, having taken an oath to testify, declare, depose, or certify truly, before any competent tribunal, officer, or person, in any state or federal proceeding or action in which such an oath may by law be administered, states, intentionally and contrary to the oath, any material matter which the person knows to be false, is guilty of perjury."

  64. Bill Fleming 2014.10.04

    Yup, that's it, Mike, thanks!

    So, my question is, does this statute apply to the written testimony of the various respondents to the GOAC's questions in the EB-5 investigation? Why or why not?

    And while I'm on questions, here's one that keeps coming up, but I haven't heard specifically asked and answered. Is there a reason Mr. Bollen and the BOR pitched Rounds on privatising the States EB-5 program? i.e. can private service centers deliver more or better services to EB-5 investors than a State based service center can, thus make the program more competitive somehow? It sounds like that's what Rounds is claiming, but if theres an explanation as to why that woud be, I guess I havent seen it.

    Finally, would the state have been able to pull down the kind of loan servicing fees Joop and company were realizing? i.e. was there money available to a private operation that wouldn't have been kosher if the program had remained with the State?

    All for now. Just wanted to put those Q's to Cory, et all (that includes you too, Troy) and this seemed like as good a place to park them as any.

    p.s. Grudznick, if you have any answers to any of the above, please stick them into one of your empty Muscatel or Sloe Gin bottles and drop them into Roubaix Lake for me will ya? I'll go down next week sometime and fish them out. :-)

  65. JeniW 2014.10.04

    Bill, my audiologist told me that technically I am hard of hearing, but functionally, I am deaf. It all amounts to the same thing, whether technically or functionally, I cannot hear worth a darn.

    Like others who have the same hearing level as I do, they cannot hear worth the darn either, no matter who tells them that. LOL

    Even though Pressler, Hubbel, and etc. are technically Indies, they are functionally Republicans. At least in my opinion. They echo the Republican words.

  66. Roger Cornelius 2014.10.04

    Bill,
    I asked those similar questions sometime back and never got any real answers. Rounds as only said that other states had successfully privatized their EB-5 programs. Never said what states or the particulars of it all.
    He didn't say what states they were or how they were administered when it came to the immigration fees.
    Makes you wonder if there is any truth in it at all.

  67. larry kurtz 2014.10.04

    The State of South Dakota wouldn't want to be traced to the bribes a private citizen would have to pay in the Philippines or whatever: that would explain the Rounds' official hand-washing, right?

  68. lesliengland 2014.10.05

    Even points between weiland/rounds next week after MSNBC pillages rounds on EB5 and Harry Reid turns on a dime enabling SD to remain a purple state in the senate, and the Nation just might be protected from further GOP obstruction if keeping the senate-my prediction.

Comments are closed.