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Keystone XL Business Case Slipping on Oil Slide, Plus Rail and Irony

Which foreign imperialist will get squashed by low oil prices first, Vladimir Putin or TransCanada and its no-long cost-effective Keystone XL pipeline?

..."the political debate is not paralleled by the realities" in the market, said Sandy Fielden, director of energy analytics at Texas-based RBN Energy. "The economics of this project are becoming increasingly borderline."

The problem is that extracting oil from tar sands is difficult and costly. Prices need to be relatively high to make the extra effort profitable.

..."The recent decline in [oil] prices has to give the sponsors some pause," said Chris Lafakis, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics [Evan Halper, "Keystone XL Pipeline May No Longer Make Economic Sense, Experts Say," Los Angeles Times, 2014.12.15].

With or without Keystone XL, our frackers will keep shipping their oil by rail. You'd think market demand would solve the problem of rail capacity—if oil is worth shipping, rail is worth building—but somehow, the oil and rail barons keep getting us to foot their bill:

States and the federal government have handed out tens of millions in public dollars to rail companies and government agencies to expand crude oil rail transportation across the country, a Reuters analysis has found.

The public assistance in states like New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oklahoma and Oregon comes as railroads are posting record profits, and as state and federal authorities press for safety overhauls that the oil and rail industries have opposed, following several explosive derailments.

The Reuters analysis identified 10 federal and state grants either approved or pending approval, totaling $84.2 million, that helped boost the number of rail cars carrying crude oil across the nation [Jarrett Renshaw, "U.S. Taxpayers Help Fund Oil-Train Boom Amid Safety Concerns," Reuters via St. Louis Dispatch, 2014.12.14].

Alongside the steel for the rail and the pipeline, I smell irony in this conversation that NPR's Melissa Block had with Nebraska farm couple Chuck and Miriam Peterson. Keystone XL wouldn't cross their land, but it would cross their neighbors' a half-mile away. They support the pipeline, which will use eminent domain to take land rights from local landowners. But they get mad as heck when someone intrudes on their land:

BLOCK: Suddenly as we talk, Chuck Peterson gets up, goes to his garage and comes back with a sign. It’s covered with dust and cobwebs.

C. PETERSON: That was put on my grandparents’ farm. And I am pro-pipeline and I did not appreciate it being there.

BLOCK: The sign says Stop the TransCanada Pipeline. And when Chuck Peterson spotted it on his land, next to the road, his wife Miriam says he came home furious.

M. PETERSON: Well, Chuck came home and he said, this is the end, I’ve had it. And he said, nobody asked our permission, we don’t agree with that and people driving by will think we do because it was on our land. When someone tries to include you in their…

C. PETERSON: Agenda.

M. PETERSON: …Agenda, and you don’t agree or haven’t had a chance to even offer your opinion, it did feel personal.

BLOCK: Did you take the sign out right then?

M. PETERSON: We’re going to have a burning, but it’s still in the garage. (Laughter) [Melissa Block, "On Nebraska's Farmland, Keystone XL Pipeline Debate Is Personal," NPR via KMBH, 2014.12.16].

So close to understanding, yet so far....

8 Comments

  1. mike from iowa 2014.12.17

    Inbre....incoming Majority loser Mitch McCTurtle says the first vote he has scheduled is on KXL.

  2. Paul Seamans 2014.12.17

    Just recently Enterprise Products Partners announced that they were scrapping plans to build a Bakken crude pipeline from ND to Cushing, OK because of lack of interest by producers. Not to be confused with the Dakota Access pipeline that will run through Iowa to Illinois and proposed by a company with a similar sounding name, Energy Transfer Partners. I am not aware that the Dakota Access pipeline has any firm committments as I don't believe that they have held any open season as of yet. Could be another pipeline that will be cancelled because of lack of interest by producers. This makes two proposed Bakken pipelines that have been scrapped because of no interest (the other being the ONEOK pipeline).

  3. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.12.17

    Boy, Paul, I'd love to see ETP get washed out of the market! So would my friend Charlie Johnson.

  4. Paul Seamans 2014.12.17

    Cory, doesn't this ETP pipeline cut through Charlie's organic farm? Terrible deal. There is quite a bit of organized opposition in Iowa but I hear nothing of any organized opposition in South Dakota, what gives? The pipeline route goes through the Sioux Falls metro area, aren't these people aware of it? ETP people are filling the Iowa people full of the same BS that TransCanada tried to feed to us and the Iowa people aren't buying it.

  5. Steve Sibson 2014.12.18

    leslie, the corporatists marching orders are given at National Governors Association conferences.

  6. Paul Wulterkens 2015.02.13

    Would you consider signing the following petition?

    Crude oil from Canada and North Dakota rolls through cities, wetlands, rookeries, and along lakes and rivers. Both the crude and the way it is transported are more dangerous than they need to be. The oil can be stabilized before being loaded. This process makes it less likely to explode If the train derails. But the oil companies do not want to pay for stabilization, and no regulator can compel them. The tank cars can be reinforced. That makes them less likely to break open if they tip over. But the shippers do not want to pay for upgraded cars, and they cannot be made to upgrade. The trains could be shorter and travel more slowly. The Federal
    Railroad Administration can make this happen, but soothing lobbyists assure them that health, safety, and a love for the environment are the railroads' prime concerns, certainly not profit.
    Learn more and petition the government to enforce railroad health and safety laws at http://petitions.moveon.org/sign/enforce-railroad-health?mailing_id=26487&source=s.icn.em.cr&r_by=11881556&%3Br=, before the next derailment leads to a loss of life, a destroyed ecosystem, or a poisoned water table.
    Paul Wulterkens
    413 Totem Rd.
    St. Paul, MN 55119
    651-739-8190
    pewultrnl@ gmail.com

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