...too bad four out of five people don't know him yet.
Respected number-cruncher Nate Silver runs some numbers that finally put South Dakota Senator John Thune within sight of the top of the Republican Presidential heap for 2012. Silver compares favorability ratings (blue) with unfavorability ratings (red) across polls for prominent Republicans who might challenge Barack Obama for the biggest job in the world. The top ten:
The good news for folks hoping for a South Dakota president: Thune has the third-best "love him"&ndash"hate him" ratio, behind only Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney and well ahead of some more rousing names like Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich.
The bad news: Thune has the highest "Who dat?" percentage: 82% apparently don't know him enough to form an opinion. The small fraction who do know him split in even ambivalence.
The point of Silver's analysis is to compare these favorability ratings with where potential candidates stood at this point prior to the last three Presidential elections. That slice of the data doesn't cut Thune's way, either. Here are the favorability point spreads previous eventual nominees enjoyed during the first six months of the year before the election year:
- Bush (1999): +47
- Gore: +12
- Bush (2003): +33
- Kerry: +17
- McCain: +17
- Obama: +25
Past history is no indication of future performance, but unless you're banking on some top-tier bloodbath that makes everyone choose Door Number 3, Thune's 2012 presidential stock is looking like a weak investment.
I would still bet on Thune if he were to get in.
Reason #1 is his upside to the primary electorate. It would be impossible for them to hate him and really hard not to like him. I think Thune is the one guy on that list that if he could catch a spark could walk away with it by becoming an overnight Rockstar.
Look at that list. If that is the list come May Thune will run. If Palin is on it he won't because she will suffocate new candidates who don't have name id.
Demint, Paul and Bachman are fringe tea party candidates that even most tea partiers won't want to vote for.
Pawlenty, Barbour and Daniels are boring candidates who were Governors. Daniels is the only possibility of the group simply because he has a wonkishness that might be appealing.
Huckabee, Romney and Gingrich are people who have been around for a long time and people aren't yet sold. So there support is week and likely not firm. Especially I think Huckabee who's support was from the Christian right that would also support Thune. In 2008 the Christian Right supported Huckabee because he was funny and he wasn't Romney, Giuliani or McCain not because he was what they wanted.
So I think that a lot of the voters out there are fluid (other than most of Romney's support - I think he is at his basement levels)
The main problem for Thune is Palin. She also has a fairly sold group of support and it may only be 20% in Iowa but when the field get's crowded it will only take around 30% to win so it becomes harder and harder to build a ground swell.
Right off the bat I can tell you Pawlenty, Paul, Bachman and Barbour aren't going anywhere and Demint isn't likely to either.
Thune is dangerous for Obama because he is very conservative but has a moderate image and tempermant. Just like Obama is very liberal and had a moderate image. Perception matters. Thune just needs a launching pad like Obama had at the 2004 DNC convention.
Don't forget "The" Donald is in the wings and would be an interesting candidate also. (Not that he'd win but he would do it for publicity and ad an element of straight talk that would be entertaining)
Donald Trump might be the one guy slamming Ron Paul that would make Paul supporters passionate enough to get Paul over the hump.
But the numbers show that the people who do know Thune break half and half on liking him. Where's the magnetism?
Trump = Perot = Obama wins. Bring it on!
Thune doesn't have that much magnetism - I see him as a large Ken doll myself - and he does have baggage that will, sooner or later, come out at the national level if he really does pursue it. But he might overcome it. Hey, no one's nailed Newt Gingrich yet for his peccadillos.
What I'm saying is that in the current field he has room for magnetism.
It won't be long until they are touting Noem for VP or President.
Chris Christie is the guy who is the most interesting.
I wonder how Thune will handle it when Noem's star power eclipses him? It sucks to have to serve with someone who's popular because she is hot - that is it. Women + Hot = more popular than 99% of pols in DC.