Nielson Brothers Polling finally stops teasing me and releases it polling numbers on Congresswoman Kristi Noem. The main takeaways:
- 55% of voters sampled approve of Rep. Noem's job performance.
- Noem beats a generic Democrat for re-election 59% to 25%.
- Stephanie Herseth Sandlin beats Noem in a hypothetical rematch 58% to 37%.
I derive mild amusement but no jump-for-joy confidence from these numbers.
On the first, respondents leave me scratching my head on just what job performance voters have to approve of. 55% is better than the 49% approval incumbent SHS got in December 2009... but shouldn't Noem expect a larger differential in a predominantly Republican state?
On the second, I find it amusing that a sack of potatoes stamped "Dem" could win a quarter of the vote against Noem and get another 16% to think about it. However, Noem still prevails on the "devil we know" sentiment among a mostly inattentive electorate.
On the third, I wonder if there isn't a certain level of South Dakota nice coming out. Asked if they like Noem's peformance, a majority say, "Sure, why not?" But then asked about a Noem-SHS match-up, a majority perhaps feel bad about making SHS sad last November and try to repent by giving her a harmless nod.
And that nod is harmless, because Herseth Sandlin isn't running. We have one guy in the race throwing punches and another guy thinking hard and making videos (read: Varilek declares before Thanksgiving). Maybe Noem losing a hypothetical rematch with our previous political star offers some hope to the actual challengers... but unless SHS declares (and I don't think that even this small poll will make her any more inclined to do so), I'm not taking this poll as evidence that Noem's goose is cooked. Gentlemen, we still have a lot of cooking to do.
I reprint the NBP press release for archival purposes:
There's Something About Stephanie: Poll Shows Herseth Sandlin Would Defeat Kristi Noem if Election Held Today
The Nielson Brothers Polling (NBP) Labor Day Survey shows a majority (55%) of South Dakota voters approve of U.S. Representative Kristi Noem's job performance. Among those respondents, 23% strongly approve and 32% somewhat approve of Noem's work. Another 45% of voters disapprove of Noem's performance (16% somewhat and 29% strongly disapprove). Noem's approval numbers are down by 5% from Governor Dennis Daugaard's 60% approval in the same NBP Labor Day Survey. Compared with Daugaard, Noem loses support from those who "somewhat approve," with a comparable number added to those who "strongly disapprove" of her performance.
When asked to choose between Noem and a generic Democratic candidate in the race for Representative, 59% of respondents say they would vote for Noem, and 25% would vote for the "Democratic candidate." Noem's strongest support comes from Republicans (65%), but 53% of Democrats also say they would vote for her, along with 55% percent of voters from Independent or other parties. 16% of respondents remain undecided.
In a following question, NBP asked South Dakotans whom they would vote for "today" in an election between incumbent Noem and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Herseth Sandlin, who was narrowly defeated by Noem (48% to 46%) in the 2010 general election, wins handily today, with 58% support to Noem's 37%. 5% are undecided. Compared with her support against a generic Democrat, Noem's support among Republicans when pitted against Herseth Sandlin declines by 10%, from 65% to 55%. Among Democrats, Noem's support drops, from 53% to 19%. Among Independents and members of other parties, Noem's support falls from 55% to 22%. Against Noem, Herseth Sandlin receives 78% support from Democrats and 39% support from Republicans.
"A majority of South Dakota voters approve of Representative Kristi Noem's job performance, and say they will vote for her against an unknown Democratic candidate," said Paul Nielson, partner in NBP. "However, Representative Noem is defeated by former Congresswoman Herseth Sandlin in a head-to-head contest. In gaining a majority of support, Herseth Sandlin picks up large percentages of Democrats and Independents."
In the Nielson Brothers Polling Labor Day Survey, conducted over a three day period from August 31 to September 2, 470 voters responded to the question about the contest between Kristi Noem and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. The question has a margin of error of 4.52%, at a 95% confidence level.
Cory,
There is an interesting article in the Mitchell Daily Republic detailing Noem's attempts to minimize and keep the press from reporting the numbers Nielson Brothers found. They seem to discount their results publicly but take them very seriously privately.
In the end, as you picked up Cory, it is utterly implausible that 45% of Republicans prefer SHS over KN or that only 22% of Independents support KN except in the case of a personal or political scandal. I would say the same thing if the converse were being said against SHS.
It is also as implausible 53% of the Democrats would vote for KN over an "unnamed Democrat."
Finally, does anyone think it is plausible for 45% to disapprove of her job yet 59% would vote for her over an unnamed Democrat?
As much as it might serve the Dem's interest today, reality is South Dakotans (Republicans or Democrats) are not that volatile, skitzo, or fickle. The disconnect can be explained by one or all of these reasons:
1) The filters in the poll skewed the results.
2) The poll wasn't really scientific with appropriate filters
3) The questions were worded to insure a particular answer.
Troy, we both view these results warily. But if the pollsters did rig the questions to produce desired results, wouldn't they have sought consistent results?
Depends on the desired results. Now first, I want to say, I do not believe either are true. In fact, I strongly hold the position neither are true or remotely close to the truth. I'm just giving you an example.
1) KN commissioned the poll. She knows SHS won't run or she is far ahead. Thus, KN's desired results are to either bait SHS into the race so she can finish her off or she is trying to discourage Dem's to believe nobody can win but SHS and she knows SHS won't in an attempt to have no opposition.
2) SHS commissioned the poll to give herself the longest runway to making a decision as the other potential Dem's will have trouble lining up support.
Now that I've said the above which I think is ludicrous (KN or SHS commissioned the poll or anyone associated with them). I personally think it is either 1) or 2) or a couple of other options (which I also doubt):
A) The questions were just not put together very well (basic incompetance).
B) The polls were conducted in conjunction with other polling for other clients. Maybe the screen or locale (like SHS's home towns of Aberdeen and Brookings) resulted in a skewed population getting asked the question. I guess this is a variation of #1 above. But you get my point.
Bottom line: The poll doesn't hurt KN, help SHS, or impact the "unnamed Democrats" in the least. Only effect is you and the War College and your respective readers get something to jabber about.
Troy,
Yes I think you are right that the poll is not accurate but it does help SHS in one way.
It keeps her name in the news and causes people to continue to think she is viable (which is true). MDR did 2 stories on this and Kelo did a news story on it last night. So all of the news watching SD got to hear about it and most of thoses voters are not going to follow up on the specifics behind the poll.
That is why Josh Shields has been spewing stuff to places in an attempt to kill the story.
Mike, indeed, at some level any press is good press.
Troy, indeed, the idea that either KN or SHS had a hand in the polls is a hard stretch. I'm not convinced KN could play chess that well, would bother to do so, or would be so rash as to tease the biggest bear. I doubt SHS would bother with this particular machination. Her runway is already well paved. This poll won't scare Barth or Varilek or any serious but still-quiet contender away from the race.
If a skewed population gave SHS her 58-37 margin, one would think that same skewed population would have dragged that approval rating much farther down and the generic Dem numbers farther up. I would thus conclude that your most plausible conclusions are the ones questioning the quality of the poll questions and filters.
I do agree, Troy, that I don't see much to jump and down about here, and neither should any candidates. The game remains open to anyone who wants to rumble in 2012.
Of course, the GOP critics of the poll have offered no hard critique of the methodology, just the assertion that since pollster Paul Nielson is a Dem, he must be wrong. And Josh Shields keeps babbling about non-existent dust regulations. Ugh.
And by the GOP's reasoning, Clay Grüber's evaluation of NBP's numbers must be wrong, because he's a Republican and he uses a fake name.
Former Congresswoman Herseth Sandlin was able to win over South Dakotans as long as she could distance herself from real hard left issues and make the case that she is just like home town mom & pops SD.
Regardless of the poll, or wishful thinking of supporters, I think that era has passed.
The closest South Dakota has ever gotten to "hard left politics" was Paul Wellstone in Minnesota and he was killed.