Sunday I noted that the Nielson Brothers poll showing Matt Varilek just one point behind Rep. Kristi Noem does not defy plausibility. Noem's spin machine has tried to refudiate the poll by noting that NBP's numbers on the Presidential race don't square with other numbers from more venerable pollsters.
But consider these numbers: Nielson Brothers find Mitt Romney holding a 49%-to-43% edge over President Obama in South Dakota. Compare that with the edge Karl Rove figures for South Dakota:
Hm. Romney over Obama by 6.
Rove says he's just guessing. Nielson Brothers Polling talked to real South Dakotans. If you're an intellectually honest South Dakota Republican (wow: I just combined an oxymoron and a tautology!), you grant Nielson Brothers at least as much credibility on this poll as you grant to Karl Rove.
Varilek down by one: keep making Noem nervous, Matt!
I bet Mr. Howie deluded himself in this matter a couple of years ago.
I think Howie may have had actually polled well before people got to hear what he had to say. Daugaard was an unknown early on and continued to basically say nothing, which ultimately looked a lot more attractive than what Gordo brought to the table.
But that's just speculation, if I could get inside the minds of SD Republicans, I wouldn't.
Lol, I had to look up refudiate. Thanks for the hilarious use of a word that Sarah Palin introduced to lexicographers.
Easy Cory...I think the cocktail of oxymoron and a tautology is like a gateway drug. Unless of course, it is for medicinal purposes.
Cory, bet you a steak and beer KN wins by more than a point.
Made a similar bet with a certain Dem last time and he has yet to pay.
But that is only because we haven't gotten together yet. Not that he doesn't pay his losses. :)
I am absolutely convinced Noem is polling below 50%. I would really like to see a match up between her and Herseth. There is no way Noem is polling within the margin of error against Herseth this year. Noem has not done anything to warrant support from more than the 48% who voted for her the first time. Noem is divisive and causing more problems.
Varilek might not be polling at 46% but Noem is vulnerable and I believe 100% that Noem is polling at 47% or worse. That gives Varilek a chance. (my only complaint with Nielson's poll is where are the undecideds? Is Noem really that unpopular that people know they are either for her or against her without knowing much about her opponent?)
I think I owe Troy two steaks, actually.
Sorry, Troy, I don't bet. I think staking our names in public to these positions is sufficient.
Mike, 47-46 split means 7% undecided, right? I can totally buy that Noem has done nothing to win over the majority who voted for her last time. The SHS 2010 voters would refuse to go Noem, and the Marking crowd sees Kristi's gone insider.
I have this gut feeling the President is going to be reelected by a slim margin. The tax issue is going to dodge Mr. Romney from now until Election Day. He's hiding something because he can simply release the tax returns and this whole fiasco either comes to an end or leads to something bigger and the White House must know something to keep pressing the issue. Someone has a theory that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid knows something about Mr. Romney's taxes too and the theory goes like this: maybe Reid (a Mormon himself) got the information from an influential Mormon businessman. Who knows, but, time will tell.
I now reside in a state that supports the President by big margins and of course we will be awarding all of our electoral delegates to hopefully reelect him this year. GO DUCKS!!!
Good point Cory. 7% is very reasonable.
I thought it was two also. Just couldn't remember how I won the second.
Cory, put a wager and I am more likely to hold you accountable. :)
By the way, if (big if as I don't believe there is only 7% undecided) these numbers are right, KN would lose if election were today. My guess is it is probably about 45-30 which would translate onto about a 10 point KN win.
Careful, G-Man: some well-read commenter will make some Orwellian association between Obama voters and Duckspeakers. ;-)
Troy, I suspect we could find more than a couple examples where you've held me quite strictly accountable for mere words from my mouth, with no steak or libations involved.
An undecided thought: how many undecideds are actually picking between Varilek and Noem, and how many are choosing between voting for the only candidate they can possibly stand and staying home?
LOL...Yah, I better be careful Cory. I wouldn't want to be called out as a psssst: "Marxist from the Left Coast," te he he he....