Last updated on 2012.08.27
Many of you (about a hundred so far) have noticed the new Madville Times poll on the big news of the weekend, Mitt Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate. I want to know what you think about this pressing question:
Has Mitt Romney boosted his chances of beating President Obama by picking Paul Ryan for VP?
I welcome your responses and comments here. This poll stays open until Tuesday morning breakfast time, when we'll chat a bit about the results.
Mitt Romney clearly thinks the answer to this question is yes. I think picking a right-wing ideologue boosts Romney's chances of mobilizing the base but, contra Gov. Scott Walker's unabashed spin, lowers his chance of winning back suspicious independent voters.
But I also think that's exactly the Romney-Ryan strategy: turn out the base, keep the Indies at home, and hope to outnumber Dems.
- Turn out the base. Mitt Romney is conceding that his dad's Chamber of Commerce politicos no longer run the Republican Party. He sees that hardcore conservatives run the show, and Paul Ryan is the hardcore conservative choice. He knows their code words, and he's not just mouthing them, the way Romney does to get elected; he really means them. On the rare occasions when Tea Partiers stop shouting about taking America back to God, guns, and glory and pretend to talk real policy, they mention the Ryan budget. Ryan is right-wing's policy icon. He is 2012's Sarah Palin, except he backs his youthful true-believer razzmatazz with the ability to conduct an intelligent conversation.
- Keep Indies at home. Mitt Romney realizes he can't trick the majority of Independent voters into thinking that he's one of them. He decided he didn't want to gamble on swing voters by picking a moderate Republican (like whom? Olympia Snowe? Jon Huntsman? there just aren't many left in the GOP). The risk is too great. Instead, Romney will go with a slightly surer strategy of depressing Indy voter turnout with a punishingly negative campaign. The PACs in his corner will unleash a torrent of negative ads, and Romney will sniff that President Obama is conducting the lowest, dirtiest campaign of our lifetimes. And Romney will count on the good people of the middle further washing their hands of politics and staying home on November 6.
- Outnumber Dems. Making the election a base-against-base battle, Romney must embrace the GOP strategy to keep Democrats from voting. Here he must count on his friends in Secretary of State's offices around the country who are working to rig the election system to make voting easier for Republicans and harder for Democrats with tricks like voter registration purges in Iowa and early-voting favoritism in Ohio.
Excite the right, depress the middle, and wage war on the left. That's the Romney-Ryan game. Will it work? Let's hear your thoughts! Vote now in the Madville Times poll!
Update 2012.08.15 20:30 MDT: Sally Kohn agrees with me that in picking Ryan, Romney "made clear his intent to focus on the conservative Republican base and abandon mainstream voters."
Update 2012.08.19 20:25 MDT: Election guru Nate Silver agrees that Romney is making an "all-in" bet... and says the scariest words I've read today:
His bet is that the era of triangulation is over: that Republicans can win elections without having to compromise. Or, perhaps, in an era when so few voters are truly undecided, he thinks a robust turnout from the Republican base could be enough to get him the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Will it work? Political theory, as I mentioned, argues against it, but Republicans have been moving to the right for a couple of decades now, and it is not clear that they have paid much of a price for it [Nate Silver, "In Picking Ryan, Romney Makes an All-In Move," New York Times: FiveThirtyEight, August 19, 2012].
Update 2012.08.27 21:04 MDT: Republicans are contributing evidence to my rank speculation. In Tampa today for the GOP convention, Speaker of the House John Boehner admitted that the GOP is banking on Latinos and blacks not showing up.
"Mitt Romney is conceding that his dad’s Chamber of Commerce politicos no longer run the Republican Party."
Yes a limited government conservative is a threat to the plutocracy. That is why Ryan is only the VP. When will the Democrats give up on the coveting via governmental authority and understand it is through government the plutocracy gets their power.
"He decided he didn’t want to gamble on swing voters by picking a moderate Republican"
Swing voters: those Kool Aid drinkers who believe the New Age Theocrats propaganda. They are not moderate.
Rebumblican National Convention expected to boost private escort business in Tampa area: WUSF (University of South Florida).
Adultery: it's an RNC thing.
The Ryan pick is designed to attract those Independents concerned about our fiscal house and job creation. We don't want Indie's to stay home, we want them to come out for Romney-Ryan. Relying on just Republicans will not work because of the Democrats voter registration advantage.
And, your assertion is actually a projection of Obama's strategy. Obama knows he wins if this is an election just between the GOP and Dems and has been appealing to his base the past two months with that exact desire (depress the Indie's). Obama has a fundamental problem: His job approval rating is his ceiling (which is slightly negative). The ony way he wins is to get Indies who don't approve of his job performance to decide to stay home.
Romney pulling off the trail citing exhaustion: how conservative.
Ryan announcement weathering "tepid" poll reaction: POLITICO.
Astute analysis Cory, but you missed the Catholic angle. Ryan fires up the base, helps neutralize Joe Biden's appeal to blue collar Catholics, and just may help Romney carry Wisconsin. Maybe even pulls Pennsylvania over to the GOP. But is a 42 year old guy who has never even won a statewide race ready to be President?
I can't help but think of all of the Republicans who have run unsuccessfully for Congress in SD with double 4-letter names: Bart Kull, Dale Bell, Dave Volk, Char Haar. Democrats should either get Paul Ryan to move here and run for Congress, or hope that the same double 4-letter name curse works elsewhere too.
Okay, maybe I'm nuts, but I think Romney brought Ryan in to show that he (Mitt) is a moderate afterall. His big sell will be to demonstrate that HE's the one who fixed the Ryan budget and in the process saved medicare. He thus appropriates the Tea Party in a kind of "leveraged buyout" maneuver. This is, after all the kind of thing Romney is very, very good at, right?
"Okay, maybe I’m nuts, but I think Romney brought Ryan in to show that he (Mitt) is a moderate afterall."
I think Romney brought Ryan in to "pretend" that he (Mitt) is a moderate.
Interesting thesis, Bill, but Nate Silver isn't buying it. See update to post above!
Wisconsin judge overturns snot, Walker: @AP.