Dagnabit! I try to enjoy my breakfast with a nice story about the possibility that Matt Varilek is building momentum, and Nielson Brothers Polling has to come and sneeze on my Cheerios. As the insomniac Mr. Mercer reports*, NBP has started releasing data from its latest statewide election poll. South Dakotans must like ineffectiveness, scandal, and deception, because Rep. Kristi Noem and her fellow Republicans are building steam:
In the South Dakota US House race, Republican Representative Kristi Noem now leads Democratic challenger Matt Varilek 50.8 to 42.0 percent compared to her 47.4 to 45.6 percent advantage in July.
...In the race for South Dakota Public Utilities Commissioner polled by NBP, incumbent Republican Kristie Fiegen now leads Democrat Matt McGovern 47.0 percent to 36.5 percent with 16.5 percent undecided. In NBP's July survey, Fiegen led by two points.
...NBP also asked whether respondents supported the Republican or Democratic state Senate candidate in their legislative district. 46.4 percent support the Republican candidate, 33.3 percent support the Democrat, while 20.4 percent remain undecided. By comparison, in NBP's July survey, 44.2 percent of likely voters chose the Republican, 34.8 percent chose the Democrat, and 21.1 percent were undecided.
...Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney leads 53.9 to 38.7 percent over President Barack Obama, with 7.4 percent undecided. Romney's lead has increased since NBP's July survey in which he led by 6 percent [Nielson Brothers Polling, press release, September 21, 2012].
NBP talked to likely South Dakota voters from August 29 to September 6, so it mostly captures impact of the Republican National Convention but only partially captures the impact of the Democratic National Convention. It also precedes Speaker Boehner's decision to let the current Farm Bill expire and not take up renewal until after the election.
But numbers are numbers, and however and whenever NBP is counting them, this poll suggests Noem's bumbling and dodging, the local attacks on GOP leadership's weak GOP principles, and Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan's double whoppers have actually boosted those folks in the eyes of South Dakota voters.
South Dakota befuddles me. Conservative readers, I obviously require your instruction. How can this be?
*Update 16:53 MDT: It is well worth noting that the estimable Tom Lawrence also gave wee-hour comment to the NBP results, a good hour before Mercer. Lawrence also got the numbers right; Mercer mispasted the Fiegen-McGovern margin onto Noem and Varilek. These news guys are either staying up too late or getting up too early!
It ain't over until PP sings....
GOP pollster Rasmussen sounds worried:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/romney_may_be_the_end_of_the_line_for_the_republican_establishment
Statistically speaking Cory the two Noem polls are about the same. Also note how soft her number is compared to Romney. If I were on the Noem team I'd be nervous.
Whats the MOE in those Noem numbers? 3? 4? See?
NBP on margin of error:
"NBP surveyed a random selection of likely South Dakota voters August 29th through September 6 , 2012. The question on the presidential race drew 512 responses, with a 4.33 percent margin of error. The question on the US House race drew 509 responses, with a 4.34 percent margin of error. The question on the PUC race between Fiegen and McGovern drew 503 responses for a 4.37 percent margin of error."
Here's how my GOP buddies do it when they're trying to convince me that Romney is going to beat Obama. Say the margin of error here is 4 points. Subtract 4 points from Kristi and give them to Matt. That gives you Noem 46.8% and Matt 46%. Now consider as per GOP conventional wisdom (which I dispute... but hang in there with me, okay?) the challenger gets at least 60% of the undecided vote.
Again, using the margin of error, the undecided vote is given as 7.2% (but it could be 4 points higher or lower). Let's say it's 8. 60% of that (4.8%) puts Matt over 50%. (46+4.8= 50.8%). Slick, huh?
Two key questions for NPB. 1. Are these robo calls? 2. Are they calling cell phones as well as land lines? See this recent writeup by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/sept-20-obamas-convention-bounce-may-not-be-receding/#more-34814
(1) They don't pay attention to all that stuff because it's not on Kelo-land and (2) it doesn't matter because it's all "lame-stream media" and, above all,
(3) Kristi looks hot in her ads. And, before anyone rips me a new one about being condescending, I (and others) have heard a number of men say - in all seriousness, sadly - that that's a major reason they're voting for her. Matt, break out the plaid shirt and get on horseback.
who watches teevee anymore except old people?
There really is a serious issue behind the light tone here - what if SD politics is in a place were reason really does not matter? Has SD gone so far into the sports team mentality of Republican loyalty that is is inconceivable to be for anyone on the other team? Political discussions sound far more like Packer versus Vikings discussions now - be on the right "team" and you have the loyalty of the fans.
The idea that this is a race of ten points speaks volumes about Noem and her weekness in office. She should be trouncing Varilek. She's not. This race will build steam in the coming weeks.
It's a big task for Varilek to defeat Noem after we through SHS out the year before who had won every county in 2008. This polling clearly shows Noem is in trouble if she survives to 2014. She isn't in any position to run for US Senate against Rounds or SHS. She is probably the under dog against Brendan Johnson if she stays in the House. She has a lot of work to do.
"who watches teevee anymore except old people?"
Who VOTES anymore except old people?
white, christian blue-hairs and lechers: the entitled barber shop, bait shop, gun shop set who don't believe in public support for family planning...the alzheimer's set, send the Don Kopps and Roger Hunts and the Betty Olsons to Pierre.
i crack myself up.
Yes lots of people vote for Kristi because they think she is hot. Lot's of people voted for Stephanie because they thought she was hot. Stephanie let herself go in 2010 and it cost her "hottness" votes. If Kristi gains any more weight in the keyster she'll probably start losing votes too.
There are a lot of old men in SD who love a good hug from their congresswomen.
Bill Fleming I think the older people who vote watch a lot of tv news.
Me too, Mike. (p.s. I'm one of them. LOL)
so...if Matt can't attract that set why not sound more like the future and less (Les?) about the past? His recent video is flat, almost milquetoast.
C'mon, Varilek: energize the base and talk marriage equality and an all-of-the-above approach to civil liberties!
The debates will be interesting.
I think before you change peoples opinions it helps to have some respect for the motivation behind their opinions. They all make sense to themselves. Suggesting they are short-sighted and ignorant only makes them defensive. Until we understand them we will not be able to influence them. Maybe they are just afraid of change because in their view they have little and see themselves as hanging on by a thread. Maybe we should address that aspect of their reality and try connect with them. Questioning their intelligence isn't helpful in my opinion.
County Dem officers should have the resources to saturate college campuses with messengers.
http://www.tristateneighbor.com/news/opinion/terry_woster/article_ea60d71c-03f2-11e2-be2e-0019bb2963f4.html
Varilek would benefit from a visit by President Obama, Mitt would not help Noem: New Republic/NPR.
I understand that NBP uses automated polling rather than live operators. Getting a copy of the survey would be interesting to see if it measures intensity of support, regression and self-identification of party/ideology. The expansion of cell phones (numbers not available on datafiles) is very problematic. If a survey uses robocalls, especially as campaigns get hotter, it becomes impossible to determine if the requested respondents answered the questions or somebody else who didn't drop off and wanted to have a little fun with the answers.
It's hard to imagine the GOP brand is this strong at this time.
I didn't belive the 1st poll but I find this beliveable. I think Matt is doing very as I bet he was down in the 20's before. Remember this a no name Dem in a bright red state..... (i am not a fan of Kristi)
The poll might be accurate for the time, it might not be, it would take me way to long to figure what is good about the poll what is not. The 1 thing I can say right off the top is the timing of this poll. You are suppose to release polls 2-3 days after the polling not 3 weeks after. It would take a very red republican to say that Noem and Romney won the last 3 weeks. Add in that Varilek has gone on the air, the farm bill disaster and Romney looking worse every day and I'd be betting that Varilek has moved the dial 5+ points in the past 3 weeks.
...just took a little backchannel chiding from one of my GOP pals who thinks it might be a stretch to manipulate the MOE like I did in my example above.
He's probably right.
The MOE can go either way on every number in the mix, and so should probably not be given much weight if any.
Perhaps my example can best be thought of as "best case scenario" thinking. Possible but not exactly probable.
But hey, he didn't come right out and say I was wrong either.
That's a good sign. It means we all agree that Matt [maybe] has a shot.
And as "oldguy" points out above, that, in and of itself, is saying something.
Go Matt, go.
Don't look at Margin of error, you look at the poll. I can make a very inaccurate poll with a relatively small margin of error. The polling people understand this, its all of weight values placed and what you consider likely voters.
I don't know enough about these guys to know what they are doing. I think they are in the ball park range, but again, I look more at time period, most polling firms would not release a poll that much later after it was done especially within 100 days of the election.
Larry says:
"Who watches teevee anymore except old people?"
Interesting ... I have not used my TV since February. I might call Knology and see how much I would save by having the TV portion of my service discontinued.
As for Kristi Noem being "hot," if that would have any effect on my vote, it would probably be negative. Maybe males with no brains vote for "hot"; males with half a brain vote against it (chauvisism requires one brain cell but not both of them); males with full intelligence don't let it affect them one way or the other.
That said, Congress and the Presidency are two entirely different beasts. I will in no way vote for Mitt Romney, because I believe that he and his running mate are both self-serving plutocrats.
I also wonder if South Dakotans, in the main, will be hoodwinked by what I suspect is a Romney-Ryan plan to get rid of the capital gains and corporate income taxes, thereby enriching themselves and their colleagues, and replace the lost revenue with a value-added tax (or "business consumption tax" as the original Ryan plan called it), thereby impoverishing the 99 percent (47 not being enough to satisfy them)?
I'll bet that the Republicans in South Dakota will be fooled by this ploy. Sad. And when it finally hits, if it does, they won't know where it came from, and they'll blame it on Obama.
But Romney is going to get killed in the election, so that musing is academic.
I think that the main force driving conservatives in this state is fear of the Obama agenda, whatever that is. I can no longer honestly call myself a conservative; libertarian would be more like it. But there was a day ... so I can see the thought mode still.
Well, John Boehner has has made Kristi's position on balancing the budget crystal clear when he said that he is vowing that even if President Obama is reelected, Republicans will not budge on their refusal to raise taxes on wealthy Americans.
I guess that means the budget will be balanced on the backs of farmers, the working middle class, seniors, kids and the poor.
The top 5% will be spared any inconvenience.
Can't wait for the debates or editorial board meetings for someone to actually ask Kristi about this and what specific cuts and tax increases she will support to balance the budget.
Jana, when Obama gets elected, Boehner will fold like a lawnchair. He's just putting up a front right now. Come January, he's gonna need a really big box of Kleenex.
With any luck, the GOP will need a new minority leader and free up John for more golf and tanning booth time.
We will have many surprises before Election Day. No sitting president has won re-election in recent times with unemployment as high as it is now. Romney consistently makes foolish gaffes. The Farm Bill looks dead and unless one party controls both houses of Congress and the presidency after the election, we won't see one passed until next year. We live in exciting times.
You are right Michael, these are exciting times and there's plenty of time for surprises. Heck, the debates haven't even started yet.
My guess is that the unemployment benchmark for past elections won't matter as much given the following:
- A sizable number of voters still hold Bush accountable for the economy
- Polling shows Obama ahead of Romney on who could best run the economy
- Romney's unfavorables continue to rise while Obama's are rising
- Does anybody really believe that lower taxes for the rich will create jobs anymore?
Lots of fun left!
Another Romney/Ryan display of competence.
Given the outrage when Tom Daschle had to amend his taxes, I'm guessing the GOPers in the state will go equally ballistic about their man Paul Ryan's latest amendment to his taxes.
"In an amended return also released Friday, Representative Paul D. Ryan, Mr. Romney’s running mate, disclosed that he and his wife had initially failed to report $61,122 in income from 2011. He said the failure was inadvertent. The change raised their total income to $323,416 and increased their taxes by $19,917 to $64,674, or 20 percent of adjusted gross income."
Does anybody really just "forget" about 20% of their income? Heck, for too many working South Dakotans, that two years worth of hard earned wages.
The voter intensity against Obama in the Nielson poll was incredible. I see no way he wins reelection if that many people strongly disapprove across the nation and not just in SD.
don't kid yourself, mike: whitebread-r-us.
http://www.eurekasd.com/
Mike, we can't extrapolate from SD distaste for Obama to anyplace else. Remember that Obama's only big loss on the last big primary night in 2008 was here in South Dakota, where Hillary Clinton walloped him 60-40.
Besides, Mike, look at what Princeton's election blog says about how the Democratic convention bounce did less to change the dynamics of the Obama-Romney race than it did to change the Senate and House races in Dems' favor.
Mike, I'd suggest among other things, that maybe South Dakota is an outlier when compared to Pew's latest research.
http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/19/obama-ahead-with-stronger-support-better-image-and-lead-on-most-issues/
The section: Obama vs. Romney on Traits and Issues is particularly interesting.
http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/09/9-19-12-3.png