Gordon Howie tries to ingratiate himself with Kristi Noem by encouraging her to run for Senate in 2014. He asserts that, as a "solidly conservative" Representative, Noem would be possible Senate candidate and former Governor Mike Rounds's "worst nightmare."
That's just silly. Rounds would cream Noem. She’s not a conservative. Noem has refused to join the Tea Party caucus on the silliest pretext. She has no strong record in the House of bringing Howie's ultra-conservative agenda to fruition in any way that would be outside Mike Rounds’s ability. Plus, Mike Rounds would actually be willing and able to show up and do the job of Senator.
In a Noem–Rounds primary, Rounds would likely coast on GOP goodwill. His fellow Republicans would be happy to see Rounds remove the embarrassment that is Noem from the top of their ranks. But if necessary, if Noem poured on outside PAC money and started getting ugly on Rounds, he’d simply crib Matt Varilek’s notes on Noem’s no-show performance this term and bury her.
I read this this morning and my first thought was that it was another of Gordon's vendettas against "establishment" republicans in SD who he blames for most of the state's problems. I doubt Kristi would try for the Senate so soon. Maybe Rounds could challenge her for the House? Now THAT would be entertaining.
I am not convinced Rounds can beat Noem in a Republican Senate primary. Noem has already beat Chris Nelson in a Republican primary, and all she really has to do is roll out her photogenic family in a TV ad and the race will be over.
Rounds is nothing, but a product of the Barnett/Kirby cat fight of 2002. He is not a statewide candidate of his own design.
As much as I don't like Rounds, I would like to see him beat Noem. That being said I hope nobody announces their candidacy until at the very least June and in my opinion that would be too soon.
If Johnson runs, he has a better chance against Rounds than Noem. Thus, Democrats definitely want Rounds to be the nominee, but national Republicans understand they need to overcome and out-do what would other wise be a "personality deficit" in a race between Johnson and Rounds - if they want to take that SD Senate seat back, and Noem's photogenic qualities unfortunately do matter.
On the other hand, I think Sandlin can beat either Rounds or Noem. The only weakness Sandlin will have in 2014 is a possible Obama/Democrat fatigue among South Dakota voters in 2014. The real question is ... how damaging will an off-election year be for the Democrats who occupy the White House?
These bozos are even worse than we are at predicting how power ultimately corrupts their hierarchy: they're not going to divide their horsepower anymore than we will.
Good goddess, people: GAFG.
Tim Johnson is the biggest horse we have in the race next cycle: he's not going anywhere. If son Brendan chooses to run he'll set his sights on the seat currently held by don Juan Thune.
Noem might even face Stace in the primary because she has done absolutely nothing in Congress except protect her campaign contributors.
SHS should run for governor.,
Matt Varilek should grow a pair and run against Kristi again.
I think Huether should run for governor in 2014. He has no public record on abortion which is to his advantage. SHS does and the pro-life Republicans will use it against her. Daugaard is extremely vulnerable and Huether has the capital to seize upon it. If any Democrat waits until 2018, they will have to face Mickelson.
I would like to see SHS run for Governor as I don't think any Democrat will beat Rounds including TJ. The numbers just don't lie and with Obama in the White House a even bigger negative. Funny thing is I have been hearing from some of my friends whom I thought were behind Kristi have told me they hope somebody runs against her in the House primary and takes her out.
Winston, You have no idea what you are talking about.
Rounds is head and shoulders above anyone else considering a run for US Senate in '14. Johnson is not the Johnson he once was. His health has deteriorated and his ability to fight the hard fight is gone. Sad but true.
Anyone who says Rounds is not strong because of how he won the 2002 primary is misguided. Perhaps he won out of rejection of Kirby and Barnett but he won large in that primary. It wasn't a squeaker. The negativity of that race endeared him to voters in SD.
Was he a good Governor? I don't know. I can't think of much he did but to the average SD voter times were good when he was in office and he managed to get out before the major cuts came along. And ulike Daugaard he didn't impose any unpopular legislation upon the voters.
Times were good during the Rounds years for the most part and maybe he spent too much but what the heck is that in SD terms?
Noem would start out that election at a serious disadvantage to Rounds and need to go negative to win. I personally do not think Noem would win again against SHS and Brendan Johnson would give her a run aswell.
I also think most SD voters think Rounds is a really good guy who was a good governor.
Also the comparison of Noem defeating Nelson isn't even in the same ballpark as a Rounds primary. Nelson ran a horrible campaign and didn't raise any money and didn't have a network. Rounds is a great candidate (as Noem is also), has access to money (as does Noem) and has a statewide network to pull from (Noem's is weak).
And if Noem runs against Rounds that means Lauck, Ryan nelson and the Thune people will stay out other than a little advice on the side because they know Rounds would be in the drivers seat and they don't want to burn any bridges with him (unlike Chris Nelson).
Other than the abortion ban but how does that hurt him in a primary? And I don't think it has any harm on him in a general because he was reelected in '06 by a huge margin anyway.
Rounds did well in 2006 because the Democrats struggled to find a last minute candidate for governor, and then the Democrats ran an extremely liberal Democrat for that post.
As far as 2002 goes, Rounds was the benefactor and not the candidate of endearment.
As far as Round's tenure as governor, he inherited a budget deficit from Janklow and then eight years later handed an other one off to Daugaard.
I think Nelson does matter, because Noem beat Nelson not on substance but rather on image, and that is how she beat Varilek, and that is how she would beat Rounds or Johnson.
What I am now going to mention is pure speculation, but I have a feeling that back in 2010 the national GOP took a look at Nelson and Curd and said, "We must do better if want to unseat Sandlin," and they look down from the State House galley seats and said "There's our girl, what's her name and what's her story." Why do you think Faux News endeared her so much over the past two years? Because it's all about image.
The RNC will be picking the Republican senate candidate for SD in 2014 and not the state GOP.
Rounds would give Sandlin the advantage and a Johnson run a chance. Noem's photogenic family is a big problem for Dems. Just as national Republicans need to get their head out of the sand, if they want to be competitive in future presidential races, SD Democrats need to understand that beginning with Thune in '96 its all about your personal appearance and not your substance.
Republicans could pick up a US Senate seat in SD in 2014, but with Rounds they are making it more risky than it needs to be for them.
I personally have no problem with Johnson being a fourth term Senator from SD, but history is against him. Only Mundt did it four times. McGovern, Pressler, and Daschle are all too familiar with the fourth term jinx. I am also afraid with the help of an off-year election tied to a Democratic US Senate and "Obama Fatigue" that Johnson is very vulnerable in 2014, and especially against Noem. A Johnson/Noem race will not be Tim v. Kristi, rather it will be Tim v. Booker... the game has changed!
I get your point on the image thing but Rounds isn't bad for a 57 year old (He's younger than Daugaard). People in SD kind of knew who Chris Nelson was in the 2010 election for Congress because he was SOS but most people had no real idea of what he looked like or what he was all about. They just recognized his name and thought he did a good job. Nelson raised $180,000 for his primary. Rounds raised that for his PAC to help legislative candidates win.
Everyone in SD knows who Mike Rounds is and almost 70% approved of the job he did. 80% plus in the GOP.
Here is how the GOP picked the candidate - (and I know this for a fact) The NRCC was trying to get Nelson to run but he wouldn't make up his mind. Month after month went by and eventually Nelson stopped returning calls and the NRCC started to think he wasn't going to pull the trigger. Along came a few guys who were close to Curd and they started encouraging him to run - Curd didn't think Nelson was planning to run. Curd thought it over and eventually decided to run. A day later Nelson's hand was forced and Nelson jumped into the race. (Dusty Johnson was a big pusher of Nelson to run). Meanwhile there was a group who wanted a female candidate and they eventually found Noem. Months later Noem decided to run and she stood out by a mile as the best candidate in the field - minus name id. Noem has many qualities. You put her up against a personality free duo of Curd and Nelson and you have a game changing candidate. Rounds is not blah.
Noem's big flaw is that if you were to do a poll on her likability it would be about 50/50 where Rounds' would be about 65/27. Sure that's because of how he won the primary and that he hasn't run a tough race. When Mike Rounds walks around he's chearful and positive. When Noem walks around she's kind of cold. For whatever reason people gravitate towards nice in this state. Rounds is NICE, articulate and smart. Noem is articulate and smart but she lacks the BS factor that helps so many SD polls endear themselves to voters.
Trust me Rounds' nice guy image will go much farther than Noem's looks especially in the DC mess we are creating. Rounds is the frontrunner against everyone this cycle. He'd defeat Tim by double digits, beat SHS by 5+, Noem is his only issue and she'd have to come out swinging and hope more than Howie came out publicly to back her. Rounds would probably have Daugaard and many legislators he's helped this year.
I'm not even a big Rounds guy but talking to the regular voter outside of the political bubble people like Rounds, are reserved towards Noem and ready to move on from Johnson.
I don't doubt Noem's strengths but I do doubt her ability to provide any real alternative reason to Mike Rounds.
The other factor that gives Rounds strength is that he's the OUTSIDER candidate. After being Governor he went back to his private business. He has said many times he doesn't want to go to DC. Now DC is such a mess he is compelled to run again. (at least that's what he can say and it's the image he has)
When this fiscal cliff mess doesn't get worked out he will be slamming the super committee and congress for passing the buck. What is Noem going to say considering she voted for Sequestration?
I don't have faith this budget mess gets fixed before sequestration happens.
The money cliff we are hanging over wasn't Noem's doing unless she got a lot of power in 2 years. It was Obama who created the money cliff.
Noem just survived a competitive race with a lot of negativity from both sides, I would expect her numbers to be 50/50 right now. After two more years of Obama and a Democratic US Senate, any Republican nominee for the US Senate in SD will gain further likability by default.
Perhaps Noem is cold, but her commercials are not, and frankly, Rounds's
insurance company pieces are dull ... and that is what matters.
I believe all the race scenarios will be very close with SHS being the favorite against Noem or Rounds. For Johnson, Noem is a big problem. Rounds will be too nice of guy to press the debate issue in 2014, but I do not think Noem with the help of the national GOP will have a problem with it. Johnson will have to debate in 2014, especially after his surrogate Varilek made "talk" an issue in 2012.
Varilek is a very intelligent and capable person, but I thought Noem owned him in the last KELO debate. Not because of substance, but because of presentation and she would do the same to Rounds.
Your argument of "real alternative reason" is presumptive at best. Would not the burden fall upon the former governor, who has not won a statewide election for over 8 years versus a current Congresswomen who just recently won a statewide landslide(definition 55+%) against a funded opponent?
As far as Daugaard helping Rounds that is a very obvious, but a risky political marriage. Daugaard is very vulnerable in 2014. He is the Frank Farrar of our time. He could very likely have a primary challenge himself, which would only bring out the "Teabaggers" for his challenger, who would be more inclined to vote for Noem in a Senate primary run.
Rounds is obviously the better Republican, but not the better candidate. Rounds v. Noem is like Crist v. Rubio.
You mean the "Outsider" who as governor depended upon the Federal government and the help of the Recovery Act to balance his last SD Budget with a $ 71 million hand-out from Uncle Sam?
Just thinking of the image that South Dakota voters had in mind when they elected Kristi inspired this Thanksgiving moment...also.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HEFmFOlSaQ
On a serious note, we have much to be thankful for.
Count your blessings one by one...and if you need a little help, here's this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt7tJ8p-3mc
Wishing safe travels for everyone!
Peace.
Winston, sincere thanks.
Wouldn't it be nice if 'Peace' was one of the door buster sales on Black Friday.
Neither Noem nor Thune lives in South Dakota anymore: they are the same DC insiders that the earth haters have accused Democrats of becoming.
Since B. Johnson seems to want to stay in the chemical toilet maybe a run for governor makes more sense for him if Papa runs again leaving SHS to take on Kristi.
Winston, Mike, good discussion of the differences between Rounds and Nelson taking on Noem. I lean toward Mike's position: Nelson ran mostly on competence. As we see from the Noem–Varilek race, competence doesn't win. Rounds brings network and cash to the table.
On TV, Rounds would easily outpace Noem. He understands policy better and more broadly than Noem (then again, I could say that about everyone in this comment section). He can also turn on the charm and sell himself with years of experience in insurance sales and statewide politics.
But let's not forget: Noem has sold insurance, too, just not nearly as successfully.
The difference is the votes of SD didn't see Mike Rounds hugging Barack Obama and endorsing his stimulus.
You will know soon enough what Noem's standing is when she announces she's not running.
Varilek ain't SHS or Brendan Johnson. SHS lost in 2010 because she didn't come off as independent and strong.
Why would anyone think Varilek who is pro Obamacare and almost everything else Obama wanted would defeat Noem? When a Dem runs and can run to the middle better than Noem the Dem will win. That Dem will be Brendan Johnson.
I agree with Cory. Rounds' resume is light years superior to Noem, even if Noem didn't waste her first term in office staying absent from committee meetings, neglecting her duties in the field offices and preening in the fake spotlight of the now defunct Tea Party. What a waste. She had a chance to upgrade her profile, and instead Noem went to Washington to loaf and collect her government checks. Oh yeah, and finish her bachelor's degree from SDSU.
And didn't Noem serve as Assistant Majority Leader in the House of Reps that last year of Rounds' budget? I don't think we ever heard her complain about holding off a vote until we knew how much we were getting from the fed.
And if memory serves me right Noem campaigned against SHS that she was against the stimulus but didn't want to turn down the money because it was still going to be spent in another state so SD might aswell get its share too. (Why can't Rounds have the same position?)
The Noem strength comments are funny. The only real race between any of the scenarios is Herseth V Rounds.
Unless Gordon Howie can guarantee Noem13% voter turnout in a primary Noem doesn't hold a candle to Rounds, who is very popular with republicans and possibly tied with Herseth in a popular vote.
IF Noem can beat a two-term popular governor in a primary it'll be Herseth or B. Johnson waiting for her in the general. Noem would get rocked by Herseth and probably Brendan as well.
If both parties want to win they have to send their best and that's Herseth and Rounds.
H20town nailed it.
(Though I think the race between Rounds and SHS would lean in Rounds favor. It's a Red state, he's popular and it's an off year election. At best right now I see SHS being at 46% of the vote. That means she would be in the same situation she was in 2010 (unable to clear the 50% threshold). The undecideds will go Republican unless there is a major gaffe.)
I was of the mindset that SHS wouldn't run against Rounds unless there was a primary from Noem. But after watching how Heitkamp did in ND it makes me think the SHS camp is more likely to run just out of the encouragement they saw up there.
Both Rounds and Herseth are in another league than Heitkamp and Berg so it would be a very different race.
side question? If Noem, SHS, Rounds,B.Johnson--all run--how does the congressional race shape up? Or for that matter-the governor's race?
Charlie, you may find the answer to that question right in front of you... in the mirror! Time to start the statewide Pitchfork Speaking Tour!