Rep. Stace Nelson gets some national press about his Senate campaign, and it's not good. It's not crushingly bad, but it's not good.
Nelson put on his good suit and flew all the way to Washington to spend Constitution Day reaching for the brass ring big conservative groups have been holding out since March, when they declared Marion Michael Rounds insufficiently conservative for their designs on South Dakota's Senate seat. Nelson said his meetings with D.C. conservative groups were "productive."
Too bad they were productive of this shrug:
While multiple conservative groups confirmed they’ve met with both Nelson and the other most prominent conservative challenger in the race, state Sen. Larry Rhoden, representatives privately admitted they’re not thrilled with either candidate.
“Stace probably shares our views, but [it’s] hard to see him being a credible candidate at this point,” one adviser to a national conservative group told The Hill [Alexandra Jaffe, "Conservatives Eye Challengers to former Gov. Mike Rounds in SD Senate Race," The Hill, 2013.09.25].
Anyone challenging the Rounds-Wadhams money machine must admit that winning depends on reinforcements from outside South Dakota. One anonymous whisperer in Washington doesn't end hope of those reinforcements, but it sure doesn't build any hope.
The big question, though, for these nameless machinators: if Stace Nelson isn't credible against Mike Rounds, then who is? He doesn't just "probably" share the D.C. conservatives' views; he writes them larger in press and votes than anyone else in South Dakota. If Stace can't do it, who's left in the conservative chute? The ever-hilarious Gordon Howie? Quieter Legislative rookies Ernie Otten and Dan Kaiser?
If the D.C. conservatives are saying Stace Nelson can't be their candidate, and if they can't even default to the reasonably articulate and handsome Larry Rhoden, then frankly, they've got nobody.
That makes me wonder if these people in Washington understand South Dakota? I'm guessing not really
A better question would be "do they even know where SD is?" It almost sounds like the Beltway Boys are going Establishment on us.
I find it hard, sometimes, to shake the feeling that the folks in DC (of any political stripe) think that outside the beltway, the northeast and the city state enclaves of the Left Coast, the whole country is seething with heavily armed Rednecks just waiting to go off on some dangerous tangent. The attitude seems to be, "Shut up and send us your money!"
MC, I like to say the same thing about the Washington pundits and pols who diss Rick Weiland.
COD, I do wonder if those DC guys are serious about looking for a challenger to Rounds. We aren't going to send them that much money. Do they really want the seat, or are they just making noise to try pulling Rounds closer to their views before he wins the primary?
The ideal candidate for these outside GOP conservative groups is a legislator who is strongly conservative in comparison to Rounds but who has endeared himself/herself to the power structure in SD. Stace Nelson falls short of that expectation because he has p'd off everyone in the establishment. Larry Rhoden fails because his record as party leader is one of backing Rounds. And frankly, as photogenic as Sen. Rhoden is he's not that articulate. He'd be the one spouting talking points at a debate while Rounds runs circles around him on substance. Somebody like Steve Kirby with executive experience and deep pockets would be the ideal candidate for these outside groups. But against Rounds, he would have to clear the deck of other primary opponents to avoid reminding everyone of 2002. A legislator like Sen. Corey Brown would make a very credible alternative, but I don't know if he's committed to Rounds already.
So R, you're saying the DC conservative agitators don't want to gamble. They don't want a candidate who needs their help. They want a candidate who could beat Rounds on his/her own. They want to throw their money into what would be a close race anyway and claim to have made the difference. Am I reading your analysis right?
If that's the case, it's sensible, but it also suggests weakness on their part. Do they have the resources or guts to back a real underdog? With Kirby not in and Thune telling the establishment to get in line, the outsider conservatives aren't going to find anyone but underdogs to carry their banner in South Dakota, are they?
Most of these groups #1 concern is can we get a competitive campaign up and running. They all indicate, as Mr "H" noted, clearly I am the conservative in the race and they duly noted that in our meetings. I can tell you that I was extremely enthused when I left DC. This week we inked a contract with an operative of Eberle Associates in which they are providing assistance to our campaign. Those efforts will kick in, in the next several weeks.
In a campaign, the language you use is important. The term "operative" has negative connotations. That's something your opponent calls your consultant. You should call your consultant a consultant. From your perspective, Rep. Nelson, Dick Wadhams is the "operative".
Stace I don't even know where to begin. You should quit now and run for the legislature again.
Rorschach is corectamundo. It's basically Corey Brown or bust for the DC conservatives. I can't believe his name hasn't come up as a potential conservative candidate. But maybe he is smarter than most of these other people running.
Why would Corey Brown challenge the Rounds machine?
Eberle Associates: Ronald Reagan, James Watt, Oliver North, Joe Arpaio... Tom Delay, John Ashcroft... plus a connection to disgraced Talon News and Jeff Gannon... their work for Stace should be interesting.
Hmmm. James Watt - aptly named. Not megawatt. Not even watts. Just one. Yep.
One watt = 1/746 of one horsepower
If they do not want either Rhoden or Nelson they either do not want a real conservative or they want a sure winner so they do not have risk. They might want someone who will be there puppet and Rounds is the insurance salesman who will cover risks on all ends to do that. Rounds would sneakily do whatever they want behind our backs and Nelson would just tell them what he thought and stick to his beliefs.
Messrs. Rhoden and Nelson will be the big bull elephants rampaging in the woods on the hill when all is said and done, and I predict Mr. Rhoden's speaking will carry him over the top. Rhoden has not angered half the world by accident, and all this rumpled clothing talk is meaningless and moot. It's about substance and experience. Hat and cattle, both.
Cory, I would like any in DC who diss any of our candidates (D or R) to come out to South Dakota and set up shop for a couple of weeks. (I think we can find room for them somewhere) Spend some time with real South Dakotans.
BTW We do have internet and cell coverage out here so they can continue working their DC job