Nielson Brothers Polling releases data from a new survey that finds a lot of my friends and neighbors in South Dakota are just plain wrong.
The October survey, conducted October 2–6, got 839 South Dakotans to say what they think of the partial federal government shutdown, the Affordable Care Act, and President Obama. The numbers show how far rational liberals have to go to get their point heard over partisan baloney:
...38.2 percent of South Dakota likely voters say the Republicans are most responsible for the U.S. government shutdown, while 34.9 percent give most responsibility to the Democrats, 24.3 percent see the responsibility as shared equally, and 2.5 percent are unsure.
This NBP statewide survey... also asks which elected body is “most to blame” for the shutdown. 34.7 percent of respondents say President Obama, and 31.0 percent say the House of Representatives (House), 19.1 percent say the Senate, and 15.3 percent are unsure [Nielson Brothers Polling, press release, 2013.10.10].
That's far too many people buying into the blame-the-hostage thinking the Republican Party needs voters to believe. Wake up, people! Look who's holding the gun!
A dispute over the Affordable Care Act (ACA) also known as “Obamacare,” is central in the government shutdown. 36.1 percent of respondents say they support the ACA, 54.1 percent oppose it, and 9.7 percent are unsure [NBP, 2013.10.10].
Evidently more people need to click on healthcare.gov and check the teax credits available to reduce their health insurance costs. Patience....
When asked to evaluate President Obama’s job performance, 41.0 percent of respondents approve (25.0 percent “strongly approve”; 16.0 percent “somewhat approve”), compared with 59.0 percent who disapprove (49.5 percent “strongly”; 9.4 percent “somewhat”). These numbers show no significant movement from the June 2013 NBP survey in which 41.4 percent of respondents approved of the president’s job performance [NBP, 2013.10.10].
Whew. Somedays you teach and teach and teach, and the kids still look at you as if your were crazy. I'll keep trying.
The blogosphere always gets out the methodology knives on Nielson Brothers. If there is any sign of error in this poll, perhaps it lies in the respondents self-identification on the political spectrum:
- Tea Party: 15.8%
- Conservative: 33.7%
- Moderate: 32.4%
- Liberal: 18.1%
Say what?! Nielson threw darts into a crowd in South Dakota and hit more Liberals than Teabaggers? I want to know where that crowd is!
Update 17:55 CDT: Kamikaze politics may not cost Kristi Noem her seat among mistaken South Dakotans, but Tea Party hostage-taking may crash the national GOP:
The battle over the shutdown has highlighted the cracks and fissures within the party. The party’s leadership has begun to lose control of its members in Congress. The party’s base has become increasingly shrill and is almost as disastified with the Republican leadership in Washington as it is with President Obama. New conservative groups have echoed, and taken advantage of, this sentiment by targeting Republicans identified with the leadership for defeat. And a growing group of Republican politicians, who owe their election to these groups, has carried the battle into the halls of Congress. That is spelling doom for the Republican coalition that has kept the party afloat for the last two decades [John B. Judis, "The Last Days of the GOP," New Republic, 2013.10.10].
Hang in there, Dems! South Dakota popular opinion tends to run behind the national curve.
Hard to believe that people are that uninformed. If you understand how the process works you'd know it's the Tea Party led Republicans that are the hostage takers.
I wonder how many of the good Republican ranchers are connecting the dots why they can not apply for disaster relief for all the dead cattle and how the great tea party republicans have shut down the government.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/08/usa-cattle-blizzard-idUSL1N0HY1AE20131008
"popular opinion tends to run behind the national curve" - hahahahaha
Like at least a generation behind the national curve. SD must have the nation's most uniformed voters, or among the most uniformed. Just review the local media's paltry comments on the affect of the shutdown PRIOR to 1 October - virtually unanimous willful blindness of any implications.
As for the ranchers - they deserve the government they voted for. West river handed the uneducated Noem the seat over a public servant with advanced degrees and the highest aptitude for governance. The west river ranchers ought be shutdown like the government they voted for. Voting has consequences. Let them deal with it and act self-reliant.
To the fine media in South Dakota, here's some good reads on how to report on polls and when you have a responsibility to step up to the responsibility of the 4th Estate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/10/public-awareness-polls-and-the-media_n_4078707.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
The Atlantic story by Derek Thompson is also enlightening.
"Thompson cites one poll in particular that found that nearly 70 percent of respondents were of the erroneous belief that the U.S. deficit grew larger over the past year, when in fact it has fallen. The public is thus discovered to be laboring under a factual misapprehension."
Here's the poll.
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-new-poll-shows-americans-dont-actually-understand-anything-about-the-deficit-2013-10?utm_content=buffere25df&utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer
So, does the media have a responsibility to correct missperceptions...one would hope so. My guess is the poll will be reported and the facts allowed to languish in obscurity. Hey Montgomery...saw your Smokeout story and just wondering if this is something you have considered as affecting a less than engaged electorate.
BTW, how many compromises have already taken place out of the most deliberative body in the world. The deficit is going down at a faster rate than before and the budget is less than what Paul Ryan proposed...just saying.
Obviously it is the House of Representatives that is not caving in to the President's wants.
But it is the President who is ordering his administration to do silly and insaner things to try and make it as painful as possible for people out of spite. Now the rez, a sovereign nation, is hollering that they want the US government fired back up too.
Yet the President orders his minions out to put cones on the side of a state highway. Maybe those people should have been processing WIC payments or something more libby.
When looking for who owns the government shutdown, here's an interesting fact and sequence of events you might have missed while everyone was reporting on how people feel.
"Here's the rule in question:
When the stage of disagreement has been reached on a bill or resolution with House or Senate amendments, a motion to dispose of any amendment shall be privileged.
In other words, if the House and Senate are gridlocked as they were on the eve of the shutdown, any motion from any member to end that gridlock should be allowed to proceed. Like, for example, a motion to vote on the Senate bill. That's how House Democrats read it.
But the House Rules Committee voted the night of Sept. 30 to change that rule for this specific bill. They added language dictating that any motion "may be offered only by the majority Leader or his designee."
So unless House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) wanted the Senate spending bill to come to the floor, it wasn't going to happen. And it didn't."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/the-house-gop-s-little-rule-change-that-guaranteed-a-shutdown
I see divorce in the future of the Tea/Publican union (marriages of convenience never last).
How would a Tea Party/Republican Party divorce affect the Democratic Party? In the short run it would be to the Democrats advantage, but in the long run do the Democrats move more to the middle or would they move more to the left? And if they do not move to the left, will the Left eventually form their own party resulting in a State with four major Parties, where successful Presidential candidates most likely gardner 270+ Electoral College votes, while merely a plurality of should we say 40% of the vote or could even the runner-up take the College. Would this usher-in a lengthy period of one term Presidents and what would the Congress look like? Could it cause constant votes of confidence within the House over the Speakership and with the Senate's cloture rule would multiple parties further destroy the capability of the Senate. These are all possibilities which we risk in the not to distant future, especially if the Tea Party folks make a move out of frustration.... And you thought global warming was a problem....
OMG all over again.
So I wonder if we'll decide the news coverage of a 20,000 barrel pipeline oil spill in North Dakota.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/10/us-tesoro-spill-northdakota-idUSBRE9990VL20131010
Will we think of how this could happen in SD near our water supplies or will we poll the 'people' to see if they are in favor of drill baby drill and that KXL shipping their oil to China gives us energy independence.
Maybe we won't see this news. The Washington Post has it up, but here where it matters...not so much.
For context, the oil spill in Michigan was roughly 20,082 barrels that has cost over $800,0000,000 to clean up.
Anyone for the "ramming of KXL down our throats" want to comment?
Kristi? John? Dennis?
What was the bond we are asking from TransCanada? Still think we don't need government agencies to monitor the greater safety of our people, land, water and resources?
Nope...we don't need no gubbmint regulations.
*$800,000,000*
Of course if Kristi and John get their wish to shut down the EPA...I'm sure the taxpayers of SD will be glad to foot the bill after the bond is paid.
How much would that be for every man woman and child in SD?
Any bets on if the media will ask John, Kristi and Dennis for a comment on the North Dakota spill? Actually follow up with a question on how we would deal with that kind of spill?
ND is unable to contact anyone at the EPA to help deal with the pipeline oil spill - the ND congressional delegation voted to furlough them.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/49263362#53250678
Grud: how's the taste of the repub's unconditional surrender?
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/49263362#53250736
If there's any silver lining to the shutdown, it's that it freed up one minute and eleven seconds of Kristi Noem's time allowing her to give a speech on the House floor calling for passage of a farm bill so ranchers can have disaster relief. We don't pay her the big bucks for nothing.
Somebody remind me. Did Rep. Noem vote for disaster relief for the Hurricane Sandy victims?
Rorschach, silver lining indeed. While we hope for disaster relief for our ranching community, lets also remember that NOem voted NO for the disaster relief on the east coast. I am sure that her words were warmly received by the likes of Peter King from New York and the entire republican delegates that were hit so hard with loss of life, and agriculture loss as well. There are more delegates there than in states like ours and that is why you have to work together.
In the meantime, we wait here and suffer because of NOem's poor representation of South Dakota. As Cory stated, we need to hang in there. While it is difficult to watch a political party self destruct, sometimes that must happen before they destroy us all.
I want that call list, guys! Wow I'm up for canvassing that turf.
Jana, I'll be keenly interested to see who ends up paying for that spill in North Dakota... and whether the GOP will reopen the government to allow the EPA and other agencies to perform the necessary monitoring of that clean-up.
It just proves that more people want giant, for profit corporations with no oversight to run their healthcare than government with oversight. I'm more afraid of corporations than I am of government.
I hope the local government yahoos and state boneheads can guess how much it would take to get tar sands crude and poisonous solvents out of the aquifers and rivers in South Dakota if XL ruptures dumping 36 pipe with 1200 pounds or so pressure..
You people want a farm bill? Get the Forest Service out of USDA.