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Your Turn: Predictions! Who’s Going to Win, and How Big?

Some predictions are already flowing in. The Displaced Plainsman predicts that Democrats are toast. Our Jenny says Rounds beats Weiland by 12.

Readers, I yield the floor: put on your Carnac hats and tell us how the numbers will total tonight. Take any race or take them all. Who comes out on top and by how much?

I'm particularly interested in hearing your reads of your local Legislative races. Parsley vs. Jones in District 8, Tornberg vs. Lederman in 16, Hunhoff vs. Stone in 18, Graham Noethlich Greenfield Tulson in 2, Elliott Hale Kaiser Novstrup in 3—let's hear the local lines!

Here's a recap of the statewide races for y'all to prognosticate on:

U.S. Senate:

  • Rick Weiland (D)
  • Mike Rounds (R)
  • Larry Pressler (I)
  • Gordon Howie (I)

U.S. House:

  • Corinna Robinson (D)
  • Kristi Noem (R)

Governor:

  • Susan Wismer/Susy Blake (D)
  • Dennis Daugaard/Matt Michels (R)
  • Michael J. Myers/Lora Hubbel (I)

Secretary of State:

  • Lori Stacey (C)
  • Emmett Reistroffer (L)
  • Angelia Schultz (D)
  • Shantel Krebs (R)

Attorney General:

  • Chad Haber (L)
  • Marty Jackley (R)

State Auditor:

  • Kurt Evans (L)
  • Steve Barnett (R)

State Treasurer:

  • Ken Santema (L)
  • Denny Pierson (D)
  • Rich Sattgast (R)

Commissioner of School and Public Lands:

  • John English (L) [officially withdrew September 13]
  • Ryan Brunner (R)

Public Utilities Commissioner:

  • Wayne Schmidt (C)
  • David Allen (D)
  • Gary Hanson (R)

And don't forget the three ballot measures:

  • Initiated Measure 17: "Any Willing Provider" health insurance law.
  • Initiated Measure 18: Raise the minimum wage.
  • Amendment Q: Allow roulette, keno, and craps in Deadwood.

Have at it, Nostradami! But don't forget to head to the courthouse and cast your real vote!

 

70 Comments

  1. Steve Sibson 2014.11.04

    It will be a landslide for the crony capitalists.

  2. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Oh, Steve, you little ray of sunshine. How about some numbers?

  3. Steve Hickey 2014.11.04

    Rounds wins by 10. Pressler in 3rd. Noem by 20. Haber is within a 1000 votes of Howie. 17 and 18 prevail. Q goes down.

  4. South DaCola 2014.11.04

    Weiland by half a point
    Kristi by 56
    Daugaard by 62
    Krebs by 52
    Jackley by 85
    17 by 55
    18 by 56
    Q will lose at 45

  5. Solemn in SF 2014.11.04

    Just wanted to share my experience the last 24 or so hours. Very excited last night about 7:30 when the wife and I found out the person at the door imploring us to ask any more questions about the Senate race was there getting out the vote for Weiland, the young woman was clearly and genuinely excited as we told her that she could count on 2 from our house, warms the heart. Voted this morning on my way to dropping off my son at school, he came in and asked all sorts of great questions that warmed my heart the way only a 6 year old can. I do hope this election is different then all the rest though. Mike Rounds is the quintessential example of what is wrong with America, and politics in general. Crony capitalism, greed, corruption, and a general disdain for those that aren't in the club run rampant and the whole campaign stinks. If the people of SD cant see that when faced with an honest to goodness good person in comparison, I will have lost hope. The fact that our atheist, progressive beliefs cast our family as outsiders in this state and even "liberal" Sioux Falls has caused us to strongly consider uprooting said family for greener, more like minded pastures in places anywhere but here (Hell, an hour or 2 east or south is all you need to drive). Sucks to suck SD, please stop.

  6. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Solemn, I hope that young woman at your door is still knocking today. She's right: she can make a win happen. Thanks for your votes!

    (By the way, I hope you can find it in your heart to stay in Sioux Falls and keep flying the atheist progressive flag... but I recognize that folks have better things to do with their lives than fight a constant battle for simple belonging.)

  7. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    That's two predictions that Q goes down. Any idea where that opposition would come from?

  8. Solemn in SF 2014.11.04

    Thanks Cory, if it were just her and I, the story would be different. I cannot put my sons' mental and emotional well-being by exposing them to a value system that rejects their parents' on face.
    Since I hijacked the thread, might as well make some predictions

    U.S. Senate:
    36% •Rick Weiland (D)
    35% •Mike Rounds (R)
    24% •Larry Pressler (I)
    5% •Gordon Howie (I)

    U.S. House:
    26% •Corinna Robinson (D)
    74% •Kristi Noem (R)

    Governor:
    20% •Susan Wismer/Susy Blake (D)
    78% •Dennis Daugaard/Matt Michels (R)
    2% •Michael J. Myers/Lora Hubbel (I)

    Secretary of State:
    2% •Lori Stacey (C)
    2% •Emmett Reistroffer (L)
    34% •Angelia Schultz (D)
    62% •Shantel Krebs (R)

    Attorney General:
    8% •Chad Haber (L)
    92% •Marty Jackley (R)

    State Auditor:
    15% •Kurt Evans (L)
    85% •Steve Barnett (R)

    State Treasurer:
    3% •Ken Santema (L)
    24% •Denny Pierson (D)
    73% •Rich Sattgast (R)

    Public Utilities Commissioner:
    9% •Wayne Schmidt (C)
    23% •David Allen (D)
    68% •Gary Hanson (R)

    And don't forget the three ballot measures:
    Yes 53% •Initiated Measure 17: "Any Willing Provider" health insurance law.

    Yes 61% •Initiated Measure 18: Raise the minimum wage.

    Yes 55% •Amendment Q: Allow roulette, keno, and craps in Deadwood.

  9. Bill Fleming 2014.11.04

    Just a guess, but I think maybe people are tired of giving Deadwood a handout, Cory. It's not exactly a dying historic community any more, like it was when gambling was okayed in the first place.

    Besides, how many more ways do they need to drain our retired seniors retirement accounts? Did you know that typically 90% of gaming revenue comes from 10% of customers?

    Like with booze and tobacco taxes, we keep our property taxes low by exploiting people's addictive personalities. We don't get it that there is a health issue there, and that it's not all just fun and games. Instead we call it a 'sin tax' and just laugh it off.

  10. Troy 2014.11.04

    I predict a lot of shock and gnashing of teeth in Madville.

    Election night surprise. Small surprise: Roberts loses in Kansas. Big Surprise: Hagen loses in North Carolina.

  11. Steve Sibson 2014.11.04

    "Crony capitalism, greed, corruption"

    Did you know Weiland's postion on TransCanada benefits Obama supporter Warren Buffet's multi-billion dollar railroad?

  12. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Troy! What are you doing looking at other states?! You know how parochial we are around here... ;-)

    Shock? About which races, Troy?

  13. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Solemn, I understand how a young'un changes one's civic activism perspective. You've got to raise the little ones right. Loyal opposition, angst, and outsiderdom is an awful lot to ask of a child.

    And thanks for going out on a limb with those juicy and exhaustive numbers! We now have one for Yes on Q!

  14. Solemn in SF 2014.11.04

    Ignoring the logical fallacies and leaps you use to come to the conclusion that you do, you are still just plain wrong...

    "Did you know Weiland's postion on TransCanada benefits Obama supporter Warren Buffet's multi-billion dollar railroad?"

    The question is did YOU know that despite it meaning a potential massive loss for his billion dollar railroad, Buffet has come out FOR the keystone XL pipeline (and politically against his "buddies") Seems like the opposite of corruption, crony capitalism, and greed to me, feel free to let me know what it is you REALLY meant since clearly that's not it.

    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/03/liberals-billionaire-warren-buffett-comes-out-for-keystone-xl-pipeline/

  15. Bill Fleming 2014.11.04

    I guess Troy doesn't understand us as well as I thought he might. We don't get shocked when we lose, and we don't gnash our teeth (especially us older guys, it might break 'em off.) We just try to understand why it happened. And forgive those errants among us who "know not what they do." Feel their pain, and carry on. Because, hey, Troy, WE'RE LIBERALS! ;-)

  16. Les 2014.11.04

    Talk is cheap Solemn and Buffet understands this, besides XL being popular with the crowd, XL won't carry his oil out of ND.
    .
    Your US senate numbers have one flaw as well. Swap RW and LP for the story tonight at 10.

  17. Taunia 2014.11.04

    Off topic, but continuing the thread:

    Oil at $70 a barrel. Saudi oil drillers are why oil is dropping; they are not slowing production to prop up oil prices.

    Fracking costs need $75/80 barrel to break even. Saudi's break even at about $25/barrel. With oil dropping it's still profitable for Saudia Arabia, and a money loser for frackers.

    Saudi's have found the anti-KeystoneXL meme for us.

  18. Les 2014.11.04

    """I predict a lot of shock and gnashing of teeth in Madville.""". Joy at Maddville would be a prediction, Troy.

  19. Les 2014.11.04

    Fracking has nothing to do with XL.

  20. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Bill, I expect to gnash on a few people.

    Les, your optimism for Pressler is admirable, if irrational. Pressler won't break 30. He'll struggle to break 20.

  21. J Williams 2014.11.04

    Solemn in SF has underlined the issue here. I was born and raised here, have lived here my whole life, and will always feel like an outsider. As Cory said, please consider staying. If progressives always leave (and I certainly understand why you would) the Midwest will be forever red. Sorry, Cory, no numbers for you, just a feeling that it will play out as usual.

  22. Bill Fleming 2014.11.04

    Taunia, very astute. They can squeeze our guys out of the market any time they want. The same way Shell Oil, Dow Chemical, the Gallos, Guimarras and other big agribusiness squeezed out the family farms in Southern California and elsewhere.

  23. Les 2014.11.04

    I'm not optimistic about much today, Cory. I believe as Sir Winston does, in the inverse relationship of Rounds/Pressler as being the only way there is a win for almost anyone and that very well could include your man!

  24. Bill Fleming 2014.11.04

    Gnash away, then, captain. We'll help you clean up. LOL

  25. Solemn in SF 2014.11.04

    So the original point of the analogy (by Sibson) was to say Weiland is a greedy, corrupt, crony capitalist because his position on XL would benefit a totally unrelated, rich democrat. When said unrelated, rich democrat comes out against Mr. Weiland's (and his political party's) position, I think we can safely say that the analogy isn't accurately descriptive, and doesn't even begin to reach the conclusion that Weiland is a greedy, corrupt, corporate capitalist right? Because that is what I was addressing, not the actual (de)merits of keystone XL, Warren Buffett, or ND, which can all also be discussed, separately of course.
    As for your senate prediction, Weiland will beat Pressler by 10 points and even you will realize he should have dropped out and endorsed Rick a month ago. Instead, in the best shot not to embarrass ourselves nationally since Daschle, SD will elect a bigger crook than Nixon ever dreamed of being, solemn indeed.

  26. Les 2014.11.04

    You speak of they as being something other than the same interests that squeezed Russia and the U.S. out of oil in the 80's. It was hardly the Saudis other than them being willing partners to the crime.

  27. Les 2014.11.04

    I don't disagree with much, Solemn. As I said, I'm not optimistic today. Sad comment on the current state of affairs.

  28. Brother Beaker 2014.11.04

    I think the most interesting question (other than Senate) is whether Brunner, who has no opponent, will poll higher or lower than Jackley, who might as well not have an oppenent.
    17 wins. 18 and Q go down.
    Rounds/Weiland % depends more on who can turn out the vote than on the overall poll numbers. I predict historic numbers from Shannon County, spurred by the name change (to Oglala Lakota County) on the ballot, allowing Weiland to get within 5%. Call it 41%(Rounds), 36%(Weiland), 21% (Pressler) and 2% (Howie).

  29. Jana 2014.11.04

    It will be good to see the GOP sign pollution gone from 41st Street at the Western Mall. It really is gaudy and the owners of the mall should know that I refuse to do business at their tenant stores and restaurants because of their partisan eye pollution.

  30. rocky raccoon 2014.11.04

    Anyone but Hickey. I don't even care if you vote for the other Republican while you're doing it.

  31. Jana 2014.11.04

    BB, it will also be interesting to see how many blank ballots for AG there are. Jackley is not good, nothing more than a mob mouth piece and a grandstander looking for national attention.

    He has chosen to either be a patsy, complicit or incompetent in the state investigations that matter in South Dakota.

    I'm sure that Rounds and Daugaard have given him the same "Good job Brownie" vote of confidence that Bush gave to the mastermind of the Katrina disaster response.

  32. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Rocky, any sense of whether Hawks has a win in District 9 in the bag? Any sense of who's got more support, Deelstra or Hickey?

  33. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Jana, I am keenly interested in the vote drop-off from the top line races to SOS to AG. Will we see PUC Gary Hanson get more votes than AG Jackley?

  34. Steve Kant 2014.11.04

    Parsley and Nelson both make it in District 8. Hate to say it but Rounds by 8%, Noem with 65% and Daugaard with 72%.

  35. Mark 2014.11.04

    Request prediction for District 33. BF, what's your best guess?

  36. Mark 2014.11.04

    CH, too --- what's your gut telling you on 33?

  37. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Mark, I haven't walked the streets of District 33, but what would you think of results in recount range?

  38. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Steve Kant, if Nelson wins in District 8, which Republican gets the other seat? Does Rep. Heinemann keep his seat, or does young Mathew Wollmann swamp the Flandreau vote with the Madison and Marine vote?

  39. oldguy 2014.11.04

    Rounds by 8-10....

  40. Craig 2014.11.04

    Jana: "It will be good to see the GOP sign pollution gone from 41st Street at the Western Mall. It really is gaudy and the owners of the mall should know that I refuse to do business at their tenant stores and restaurants because of their partisan eye pollution."

    Don't hold it against the tenants - they have no control and some don't like the message any more than you do. The owner of the mall is also the owner of South Dakota Furniture Mart, Ashley Furniture, Unclaimed Freight, Furniture Outlets USA, and around 30 other furniture stores within SD, ND, IA, and MN.

    So if you don't like his messsage, don't shop at his stores... but considering he is a 80 year old multi-millionaire he probably won't care much.

    I do agree with you that I'll be glad to see the signs gone... I've never been a fan regardless of which candidate they support. I will never understand why politicians can litter our roadways and ditches with their trash while every other type of sign is required to be permitted and be placed in a very specific manner. Once again - special rules for those who make the laws.

  41. Mark 2014.11.04

    I've visited RC (specifically Dist. 33) twice in the past 60 days. Have heard nothing but good things about Robin and have noticed some signs on West Main Street in addition to the north end of town. Hoping for a good turnout, including common-sense, decent Republicans to provide some momentum to send a solid candidate and to send a message...

  42. Craig 2014.11.04

    Predictions:

    U.S. Senate:
    33% •Rick Weiland (D)
    41% •Mike Rounds (R)
    21% •Larry Pressler (I)
    5% •Gordon Howie (I)

    U.S. House:
    29% •Corinna Robinson (D)
    71% •Kristi Noem (R)

    Governor:
    23% •Susan Wismer/Susy Blake (D)
    74% •Dennis Daugaard/Matt Michels (R)
    3% •Michael J. Myers/Lora Hubbel (I)

    Secretary of State:
    3% •Lori Stacey (C)
    3% •Emmett Reistroffer (L)
    38% •Angelia Schultz (D)
    56% •Shantel Krebs (R)

    Attorney General:
    5% •Chad Haber (L)
    84% •Marty Jackley (R)
    [11% •Abstain]

    Initiated Measure 17: Yes 62%
    Initiated Measure 18: Yes 52%
    Amendment Q: Yes 54%

  43. 90 schilling 2014.11.04

    1.5 to 1 Hanson over Jackely in totals. When SD judges are speaking out over the political operations in the AG's office, Habber Dabber is the protest vote for me.

  44. Lynn 2014.11.04

    Looks like the Libertarians have already conceded. Emmitt is in Vegas.

    Myers/Hubble have not conceded quite yet.

  45. oldguy 2014.11.04

    I do think Weiland by far ran the best campaign with Pressler second

  46. SDBlue 2014.11.04

    I voted for every Dem on the ballot. I left the Attorney General race blank.

  47. BOHICA 2014.11.04

    Twins under Molitor will win 65 games........wait...what?

  48. 90 schilling 2014.11.04

    SdBlue: I left the Attorney General race blank.~~~~ Now that's making a statement statement, blue.

  49. cindy heidelberger larson 2014.11.04

    I was 59th in my District today, and was even given "the look" when they had to put the big D beside my name. I took my boys early this morning and walked them through the process, the ballot, and my reasoning for each decision.
    For the first time I had to leave one option blank for Attny General. I just could not.....just could not. How do you explain to your kids not knowing which of 2 NON options is better? That was the toughest moment...and I still wrestle to reconcile that one.
    Although we know where SD will come down, we've known it for months; I still treasured this chance to walk my sons through something so important, so necessary, and so vital and responsible a duty as a woman and as a citizen.
    My 2 cents.

  50. Francis Schaffer 2014.11.04

    Haber/Jackley will have the largest undervote. I say 12%.

  51. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    ...and Vikings finish under .500.

  52. Francis Schaffer 2014.11.04

    Minnesota Vikings?

  53. Travis 2014.11.04

    I voted for Jackley for AG, simply because any non votes give Haber that much more of chance to gain on Jackley, and Haber would be worse for this state in any form of political office.

  54. 90 schilling 2014.11.04

    Travis:"n Jackley, and Haber would be worse for this state in any form of political office." Thanks, Travis! You put both Jackley and Haber into perspective.

  55. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Travis did the same thing I did, though for slightly different reasons. Jackley wins, no matter what. I've already made clear my protest of his actions in office, and I will continue to do so, publicly and fearlessly. The additional utility of my leaving his bubble blank as a protest non-vote is minimal, and certainly less than the utility I derive from lowering Chad Haber's percentage.

    That said, not as many people have paid attention to the race the way we have here in the blogosphere. I speculate Haber will finish with double digits from the not-Jackley/not-GOP crowd.

  56. Kurt Evans 2014.11.04

    Cory Heidelberger posted:
    >"Commissioner of School and Public Lands:
    > • John English (L) [officially withdrew September 13]
    > • Ryan Brunner (R)"

    John stopped spending money on his campaign but didn't withdraw:
    http://www.aberdeennews.com/article_84313b78-07ba-5ffc-9bbc-13951e7b3222.html

    Cory commented:
    >"I speculate Haber will finish with double digits from the not-Jackley/not-GOP crowd."

    Prediction 1: Cory is right. For better or worse, Bob Newland's 2002 record for most votes by a Libertarian attorney general candidate (12,131) is going down in flames.

    Prediction 2: The South Dakota Libertarian Party will shatter its 2002 record of 39,340 total votes for all candidates in a single election, even without counting the Haber votes.
    http://webarchive.loc.gov/lcwa0006/20021021073806/http://www.kurtevans.com/party.html

  57. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Termination vs. withdrawal—now we're getting tricky, Kurt. True, English quit too late to withdraw his name from the ballot. But SDCL 12-27-22 requires every candidate to file campaign finance reports. The only way you get out of filing a pre-general report is if you terminate your candidacy prior to the pre-general due date. That tells me that English's termination statement on Sept. 13 effectively ended his candidacy. I may have chosen a legally inaccurate term in "withdrew," but the practical effect of the Sept. 13 filing was that English withdrew from the race and cannot properly be called a candidate.

  58. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    And "39,340 total votes"—how do you arrive at that number?

  59. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    By the way, I'll be watching the real results come pouring in at 9 p.m. CST; I'll be tweeting hard at @coralhei. I may work up a blog post or two on the results this evening, if time allows; much more will follow at daybreak tomorrow!

  60. Kurt Evans 2014.11.04

    Cory wrote:
    >"I may have chosen a legally inaccurate term in 'withdrew,' but the practical effect of the Sept. 13 filing was that English withdrew from the race and cannot properly be called a candidate."

    In the article at the link in my comment, John said, "I'm running," and Secretary of State Gant said, "If he receives the most votes, he is the winner. His candidacy is not terminated."

    >"And '39,340 total votes'—how do you arrive at that number?"

    By adding up the numbers of votes received by the nine Libertarian candidates who ran in 2002.

  61. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Gant said that? I think Gant may be wrong. The letter of the law appears to require that every candidate submit a campaign finance report, even if the candidate is raising no money. I welcome opposing interpretations.

    Does the "39,340" total votes cast tell us anything meaningful?

  62. Kurt Evans 2014.11.04

    Cory wrote:
    >"Gant said that?"

    This is the link from my earlier comment above:
    http://www.aberdeennews.com/article_84313b78-07ba-5ffc-9bbc-13951e7b3222.html

    >"I think Gant may be wrong. The letter of the law appears to require that every candidate submit a campaign finance report, even if the candidate is raising no money. I welcome opposing interpretations."

    I agree. I don't think the secretary of state's office should have taken the campaign finance termination report.

    >"Does the '39,340' total votes cast tell us anything meaningful?"

    Prior to this year South Dakotans had never put more than 40,000 marks beside the names of Libertarian candidates in a single election. I'll consider it meaningful if a significantly larger number has done so today. At the very least it's making people more familiar with the word Libertarian. At best it's increasing the party's credibility.

  63. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.04

    Kurt, with 440/714 precincts reporting, the SDLP is up to 85,000 marks on papers. Of course, since none of those marks are on the governor's line, those marks mean nothing, and the SDLP disappears from legal existence, right?

  64. Kurt Evans 2014.11.04

    Cory wrote:
    >"Of course, since none of those marks are on the governor's line, those marks mean nothing, and the SDLP disappears from legal existence, right?"

    I'm not sure whether the SDLP disappears from legal existence when it's no longer a state-sanctioned party, but I'd say the marks mean something either way.

    I just got off the phone with John English. He won Buffalo County 54-46. We're excited about the party's future.

  65. Travis 2014.11.04

    Cory, I'm not pleased at all with having to choose between Jackley and Haber, but I also didn't want there to be anything that looked like a competitive result in that race.

    While I'm very happy Scott Parsley won the senate race in my district, I'm very disappointed in the results of most all the state wide and local results tonight. I know that I am more informed than the average voter, but I can't believe that said average voter is so uneducated that a majority of them in this state would still elect Rounds. I'm vexed by the results I've witnessed tonight.

  66. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.05

    Vexed is a good word, Travis. Now we march forward to cure our vexation and the errors of the electorate.

  67. Solemn in SF 2014.11.05

    sigh

  68. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.05

    Breathe in, breathe out. We all get things wrong... but hey! Your predictions weren't far off. Just knock the wishfulness out of the Weiland prediction (that's where I was, too) and flip your IM 17/18 numbers, and you're on top of things!

  69. Kurt Evans 2014.11.07

    At 6:40 p.m. on Election Day, I'd written:
    >"Prediction 2: The South Dakota Libertarian Party will shatter its 2002 record of 39,340 total votes for all candidates in a single election, even without counting the Haber votes."
    http://webarchive.loc.gov/lcwa0006/20021021073806/http://www.kurtevans.com/party.html

    After further review, one of the (small-L) libertarians I'd included in the 2002 vote total, state house candidate Larry Rudebusch, actually ran as an independent that year. That means the total (big-L) Libertarian vote in 2002 was only 38,514, and the record we shattered on Tuesday was our 1994 total of 38,998.

  70. caheidelberger Post author | 2014.11.08

    If I'm counting correctly, Kurt, the SDLP total vote for 2014 is 169,638, or an average vote per candidate of 33,928 (Emmett really drags the average down).

Comments are closed.