Last updated on 2013.06.12
I'm not a sports guy, so help me find the right sports analogy: Is Kristi Noem playing zone? Is she holding the ball and running down the clock? Or is she just waiting for coach to call in the play?
According to The Hill via David Montgomery, Congresswoman Noem says she's having "conversations with organizations" about running against M. Michael Rounds for the SDGOP nomination for Senate in 2014. However, she says she "probably won't [decide] for several months yet."
Translation: Noem is in the catbird seat. She gets to keep Rounds guessing for months. She puts a brake on donors who would give their money to Mike only if they knew they wouldn't miss the chance to support the more electrifying Kristi in a Senate race.
And perhaps most importantly, she keeps any other Republicans who are thinking about running from making a solid decision. Stace Nelson, Bill Napoli, Steve Kirby, Dusty Johnson, Shantel Krebs... any of those Republicans who might be thinking about throwing in for Congress have to wonder: Do they want to challenge Rounds for Senate? Do they want to get caught in a three-way with Kristi and Mike? Do they want to run for an open House seat? They can't do that calculus until Kristi finishes hers. And as her academic record shows, she likes to take her time finishing her homework. The longer she makes those GOPers wait, the less groundwork they can lay, the less time they can campaign full throttle, and the weaker any of them will be if Kristi has to face them.
And since all that matters in Kristi's world is Kristi, for Kristi, that's nothing but good. Heh heh heh.
Dang: am I going to have admit that Kristi Noem is pretty darn smart?
I don't know what shes doing. It only makes sense to do this if no serious candidate has announced yet. When a serious candidate has announced you area already behind in the process. Now maybe she is waiting for him to make a mistake or something, but you can't let your competition lay ground work, hire campaign staff, raise money, etc.
I'm almost wondering if she knows she is not running and she is just claiming to maybe run to hurt outside grounds from creating a primary.
The only problem I have with that theory is every thing she says sounds like someone who is getting in the race. Not the token I'm thinking about it, more the I want to run, I just want to figure out where I am before I decide to run.
i think the move is called "keeping your powder dry". Given her name ID, constant press coverage (check the Madville headlines), she can wait until the petitions need to be circulated. Weliand was a stroke of genius by you Cory, as how can any republican race money for this race now - with a straight face ?? Which benefits the Congresswoman's North Carolina 4 corner (to give you the sports analogy you seek --- its a pre-shot clock stall game plan)
Calculus and Kristi in the same sentence. Probably should provide a definition, or maybe a picture so she can understand.
The Heritage Foundation just sent out a letter to GOP reps saying they should not propose legislation, and only attack Obama. Is this a great country or what?
Lee and his earth hater buddies have achieved their objective: Chris Hedges said on Talk of the Nation yesterday that the US looks like Yugoslavia just before their civil war.
America the pitiful.
You're thinking too much Cory. Just like anything else (unless told) she can't make her mind up.
wow Kurtz -- want to come to one of our banquets and put some cash into conservation --- or just going to keep typing nasty grams?
Knights of Columbus is about raising cash for conservatives not for conservation. Whatever other gang you belong to, Lee will be fixed by the Yellowstone Supervolcano.
you people are going down, lee.
This means we have a shorter campaign season...everyone wins.
The key to this disgusting situation is this: Noem is having "conversations with organizations." Then she refuses to name them. Hey, nothing spells "puppet of out-of-state special interests" better than refusing to name who you are talking to about a run for office. Notice, it's organizations, not people, especially not South Dakotans. Say what you want about Rounds, he's probably got a lock on most of the South Dakota big shot money. That leaves Noem cash strapped, so she'll be whoring herself out to whatever out-of-state group provides an assurance that money will be delivered.
Why the fuss? Senator Noem---really? Let's move on to more serious considerations.
Cory, I stand by what I said earlier that Rounds is not the right person for the job of US Senator. Now, on the topic of Kristi Noem: she would be an even greater disaster in the Senate. I hope South Dakota voters think long and hard before considering the political tragedy they would creat for themselves by elevating her to that post. If they can't see the mess she has created now, basically destroying most of what Herseth accomplished for the state, then they really are clueless to say the least.
Something tells me Schoenbeck is eyeing an open House seat and is not that big of a Kristi Noem supporter.
If Rounds goes through the entire summer raising money and pressing the flesh this race will be over before Kristi even gets in. Most GOP voters (other than those like Schoenbeck who have a personal dislike of Rounds) will scratch their heads and say what is this all about? That cowgirls got a serious case of EGO.
(I for one would love to see Kristi out of SD politics for good so a decent person can serve us in DC. Dusty, Schoenbeck, Marty, Russ Olson...)
Out of curiosity, since I don't normally track such things, how has Kristi's fundraising compared to Rounds' ability to bring in the cash lately?
Rounds raised less in the first quarter but to be fair he was in for about 1 month prior to the start of the first quarter. He raised about 450,00 in the first four months of his campaign. Noem raised about 280,000 in the 3 from the quarter. Noem also took in about 100,000 in PAC contributions.
The next quarter should give us a better understanding because they will both be in for an entire quarter without any partials.
I have enough of an understanding based on what you've told me since Noem isn't running for anything. Thanks for the info.
I would like to see a conversation about Lee Schoenbeck running for Congress. Or gov.
But to be fair, Mike, Rounds had nothing to do in the first quarter but fundraise. Noem was still holding down her day job. National Journal labeled Rounds one of its first-quarter losers for not outpacing Noem in what for her was a down quarter, too.
As a Dem, I would find Schoenbeck a better choice for South Dakota than Rounds or Noem. He's a straighter shooter, and I think he'd bring a clearer governing vision. But what I would really want to see would be Lee debating Stace Nelson.
As much as I'd love to see Lee put his legislator cape back on and jump into a U.S. Senate race as the candidate, the reality is the 2014 GOP nomination for the Senate is owned by incumbent Rep. Kristi Noem. She's the only one voting 38 times to repeal ObamaCare. Other than John Thune, she's the only one who is voting to obstruct the President's agenda. She's the only one with recent experience raising money from pacs and big national donors in Washington, which is the lifeblood of running a big U.S. Senate race. Nobody, not even Mike Rounds, is going to be able to touch her in the primary, and the longer she waits to announce, the greater the media will salivate and pitch her softball stories about her impending candidacy. Think of it as a slow moving but inevitable seduction with the press and the chronic primary voting Republican in South Dakota. There's no percentage in moving too fast for Kristi, and breaking the spell.
DD is vulnerable and Noem could run that race much cheaper than a run for the Senate. Besides, all indications are that she hates DC.
I'm guessing most of us would prefer to have Schoenbeck than Kristi but that's not going to happen.
We will see what the next quarter shows for both Rounds and Noem. I'm not too interested in first quarter totals when we are so far out.
Cory, just an fyi on one name you mentioned.
Shantel Krebs is treasurer for the Rounds Senate campaign, so it would be quite a move if she ran for the Senate against Mike Rounds.
I'd have to disagree with you Rick. Kristi Noem is not as popular as you think amongst South Dakotans. Rounds is quite popular and actually worked and made it to meetings while governor.
Rounds can bring up all the missed House Committee meetings the last two years. This will be a close primary and interesting to watch. I don't think Rounds will be scared to play dirty against a woman either.
Larry, I'm surprised of your statement about Noem not liking DC. It's about the power of the Senate seat. DC grabs you in once you're there. She's not going to give up a chance to run. Even all her horsies in SD won't convince her to come back to farm.
Recall that Noem portrayed SHS as a creature of DC: how can she continue to reject the notion that she has not become one of them without looking even more like the hypocrite she is?
That's not what I said, Jenny. Noem owns the 2014 Senate nomination precisely because she is the only candidate currently in office who is revving up the GOP hyper-radicalized primary voter base on what they like best -- hating America's President. Mike Rounds is a very distant observer of the action in Washington, and what's he going to say? Congress is too busy obstructing the President that nothing is getting done? Turn on your TV. The House is where the real political action is, and Kristi is the only one involved in the action that GOP activists find so wonderful. My point has been Kristi only grows stronger the longer she waits to officially announce ... and Mike Rounds' chances can only hang in the wind and wait for Kristi.
Winning the general election is a somewhat riskier issue for her and for any Republican who appeals to the Obama haters. She would have to pivot back to the center. And she's got a lot of explaining to do about why her first two terms in the House are so unremarkable. But, her ability to seduce the media has gotten her a lot of mileage. And the recent ability of South Dakota's electorate to dismiss the Democrat on the ballot probably leaves her thinking it doesn't matter who the other party puts on the ballot.
So, whose shoes would you rather be in if all you needed was the GOP nomination in 2014: Mike Rounds' or incumbent Congresswoman Kristi Noem's?
Larry, nobody remembers (nor cares) about Noem's allegation that SHS as a creature of D.C. They remember and care about that as much as John Thune defeating Tom Daschle for obstructing the President's agenda ... a fact which did not inspire the Democrats to bother fielding a candidate in 2010 to hold Thune accountable to his own rhetoric about obstructionists.
Good point, Bob! Hmm... but if Noem made a move for Senate, would she consider running for House?
Mike, I notice you included Russ Olson among your list of better leaders than Noem. Wrong: Russ is Kristi without the good looks or the horse.
Rick's use of the word "seduce" is quite appropriate.