Tom Lawrence gives Rick Weiland more cause for hope, identifying national historical precedent for a crowded ballot leading to a win for a presumed underdog in a one-to-one race. While Democrat Weiland enjoys easy sailing through spring with no primary challenger, GOP frontrunner Marion Michael Rounds has to face the punches of Stace Nelson, Larry Rhoden, and Jason Ravnsborg (and Stace, Larry, Jason, you all realize that job #1 for each of you at the big SDNA debate in Pierre this morning is to take Rounds down a peg, right?). If Rounds withstands the primary challenge (and his ads show that if he wins, it will be on inertia and money, not on skillful messaging), he still won't be able to focus fire on Weiland. Larry Pressler will harass him from the nostalgic middle, and Gordon Howie will harass him from the right. Weiland could focus on getting Dems to show up and stick together (dangit, Dems! do it!), draw a third of the Indy vote (oh, think big: half!), and beat Rounds with something in the forties.
But Lawrence's electoral arithmetic gets me thinking: What's the best primary outcome for us Weiland partisans? The conventional wisdom seems to be that any GOP challenger doing his job and knocking off the Nine Million Dollar Man in the primary makes Rick Weiland's work easier. But suppose Stace Nelson prevails and Gordon Howie lives up to his promise to withdraw in favor of his preferred Republican. A Nelson win would actually deprive Weiland of helpful ballot distraction.
The scary thing here is that I could be inclined to root for a Gordon Howie candidacy.
Dems, don't work too hard on this question. Rick needs to knock on every door and pop into every cafe in the state, regardless of who wins the GOP primary and how many men he has to beat on the November ballot. But for marginal gain, I wonder what's better: Big Money Mike on the ballot with two Indy challengers, or just Stace and Larry
I smell something big about to happen. I wouldn't be surprised if Stace got another endorsement.
Stace or a volunteer his is out going door to door hanging literature on doors in small town SD.
Bosworth: "God might be on my side that I got this question.." Uh.. no.
Even thought there is a lot of possibilities in strategy here, we are not chosing how many rows of corn to plant. We are chosing a Senator. I do not think many people would vote for someone because they might distract from someone else. We all need to vote for someone whom we would actually not mind getting the job.
In case you missed it, John Tristan on the Constant Commoner blog on the right panel has an excellent synopsis of the debate, a must read.
Weiland would be significantly better off running against Rounds, Howie, & Pressler. Rather than Nelson, & Pressler.
If Republicans are paying attention, there is one guy who has the guts to tell the truth and not pander.