It's time for a long weekend of Christmas goodies and wild political speculation with the in-laws! In celebration, let's do a poll!
The Madville Times asks you, gentle readers, to prognosticate the ever-unpredictable Iowa caucuses. Will Ron Paul win a vote outside of Texas for the first time in his long life? Will Michele Bachmann enjoy divine intervention? Or will Iowa Republicans get behind their neighbor John Thune and recognize that Mitt Romney is the only shot they have to beat President Obama?
To aid in your crystal-ballery, feel free to consult the estimable Real Clear Politics poll aggregator. This morning's graph:
Paul continues to surge over Romney. Gingrich shows a tiny bounce at the bottom of his precipitous decline. And the Huntsman uptick (please, just one moment of glory?) appears to have been nixed in favor of nuts.
Poll runs until breakfast Monday! Gather the family around the warm glow of the Internet, crank up the rock-and-roll Christmas playlist, and vote now!
You always have to take things a step too far don't you? :)
As I look at your blogroll, I see that that the Right Siders are claiming that you and your atheist ilk are continuing to attack Christmas. Then you post a link to a video by George Thorogood and the Destroyers.
Where others merely attack, you seek to destroy.
Thanks for the morning pick me up.
Being back in IA, in the heart of uber conservative Steve King country... it surprises me a bit that Ron Paul's message is resonating so well this time, compared to 4 years ago. That tells me that everyone who promised change from the status quo SHOULD be nervous about their political position, but knowing the voters... I doubt we'll see any real change.
Look how long this post has been up and no one has posted about the NEW WORLD ORDER...Wow.
Sorry, Michael.
From NPR:
"His father, a Salt Lake City bazillionaire, owns a chemical company that really blossomed when it created packaging for McDonald's Big Macs. His father also served in the Nixon administration, so Jon Huntsman Jr. lived in Washington as a young boy."
http://www.npr.org/2011/12/21/144012749/5-things-you-may-not-know-about-jon-huntsman
This is nearly impossible to crystal ball for one reason: the unique nature of caucuses.
Caucuses don't have the full breadth of voters. It has those who feel strongly about one or two sets of concerns with little regard to other matters.
If your single issue are social, you won't care about the candidate's foreign policy views. If it is jobs, you won't care about the candidates other matters. Who can predict which faction will have the largest turnout.
This said, I like an occassional caucus to vette out where the "true believers" are. Without Iowa, Obama would still be in the Senate. If Clinton would have heard the message of Iowa, she'd have been the nominee. If McCain had heard the message of Iowa, he might have won (albiet I think the meltdown doomed him).
In my mind, the two big message drivers will be how well Bachmann and Paul do (30+% collectively). If they do well, Romney/Gingrich need to integrate this into their message. Who does it best will be the nominee.
At the same time, if Romney/Gingrich appear to be shellacked, I don't that will affect the race in the end. Because they both have depth on a range of issues, neither appeal to the single issue voter. They have to depend on those who look at all issues and make value decisions with trade-offs. I'm just not that convinced this is the "face" of any caucus so they might "underperform" their poll numbers. The field only gets smaller if they collectively exceed 50% which I doubt they will. In fact, I'll be surprised if they get over 40% collectively.
Huntsman and Santorum are two I expect to drop first. Perry maybe if he does poorly. The rest are definitely in all the way no matter what unless they do poorly in the first three states (IA, NH, SC).
This all said, I voted Romney only because he is who I support today.
I really think Ron Paul might run away with it, Troy. I don't think anybody else has his ground game. Plus, it looks like he might get a little help from the OWS crowd. Especially if anybody starts making noises like they might vote for Newt.
http://www.amny.com/urbanite-1.812039/newt-gingrich-heckled-grilled-by-ows-protesters-in-iowa-1.3404848
I'd vote for Gingrich or Romney. I clicked Gingrich because I feel he has deeper knowledge of the issues and might actually do something unique.
Santorum, Bachmann never had my support.
Perry was a disapointment.
Paul is good on some issues and totally insane on others.
Jon Huntsman just never caught on. If Gingrich wins Iowa then Huntsman could play spoiler in NH.
You guys might be right. I'm all about "deltas"
Romney/Gingrich: 18-22% pretty narrow
Paul: 10-30% pretty wide.
Paul's strenght and weakness is the same: He has a base and it goes nowhere after that. There was a poll in IA and he was less than 3% of the likely caucus attendees second choice and it is worse in likely voter polls.
Jon Huntsman suffers from "right guy" syndrome. The only one that might actually be good, but doesn't quite know how to brow nose the voters and (more importantly) the money people. I suppose that's important.
Maybe the IA caucateers aren't so overwhelmed by the constant barrage of political torpedoing that they've taken notice of these letters. Someone wrote them.
http://tinyurl.com/cybgyt2
Iowa seems fickle and reacts sharply to negative campaigning. I think the real first test isn't with that state and it could lengthen the nomination process.
LOL, tweet your poll to Paul supporters and rack up hits to your blog spot.
LK, I aim to please. At your service!
Paul does seem to have a better chance than ever, since he can rely first on his diehard supporters, a group perhaps more tenacious in retweeting and FB'ing and blog-swamping his message than any other candidates' followers. As Troy notes, those people always turn out for Paul, but Paul never manages to move the needle beyond that core. This year that needle is bumping because he has voters so desperate not to vote for Romney that they'll try anything.
Bachmann: no hat, no cattle, no brain. No em.
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/25/bachmann-generates-energy-but-few-laws/
TPM: 2012 first election cycle without a Bush running since 1948.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/2012-first-election-cycle-without-a-bush-since-1948.php
Make it so, America.
I'm not convinced it's over.
I think there's a 30 percent chance that the Republicans will have Jeb as veep.
%#$damn these @!$#%&*#@%$#+, they would give us more reagism. just what we need.