Last updated on 2012.11.11
Bob Mercer continues to insist (without paragraph breaks) that the 6% who voted for Independent B. Thomas Marking in 2010 will decide the outcome of the 2012 race between Rep. Kristi Noem and Matt Varilek. Because I like to disagree with Mr. Mercer, I continue to insist he's wrong.
The Marking voters either didn't pay attention to the real issues at stake in the 2010 race, or they simply didn't like either candidate. No one has produced any evidence that they came more from traditional GOP or Dem positions, so I contend those Marking voters will flip a coin this year and break evenly between Noem, Varilek, and staying home.
Mercer himself helps make the argument that the real deciding factor will be the shift of Noem voters to Varilek. He acknowledges that Varilek is distinguishing himself as a "smart, serious candidate." The Noem camp's cap-and-trade ruckus won't hurt him, because it's too wonky for most of the electorate, and it's just untrue.
Then comes Mercer's key statement about Rep. Noem:
I'm waiting for the Noem campaign to make its case why she should be re-hired.
Varilek is making the sale for himself with his base. Heck, he made that sale in June with a 72% win in the primary. Rep. Noem has not made that sale to her base. Republicans go to the polls asking "What has Kristi done for us lately?" They come up with a very discouraging answer: nothing. The sensible Republicans will realize that the job of a South Dakota Representative is to bring home the bacon. They'll realize Matt Varilek can do that job from day one better than Kristi has done it in five hundred days. Those GOP voters will decide this election. Varilek needs two percentage points' worth of them to sneak over to his side.
Don't worry, GOP voters: we won't tell.
Farm bill a no-win for GOP:
http://www.grandforksherald.com/event/article/id/245095/group/homepage/
Noem is such a light weight. Can the GOPs in this State at least agree to that? She doesn't deserve re-election because she hasn't done anything. Wishful thinking but I still hold out hope that at some point the electorate in this State will start voting for the best candidate instead of blindly voting for a candidate just because of the "R" behind their name.
I agree about Noem as voted for SHS last time but think she will win big. TJ has gotten elected as well as SHS and Daschle with a D. I registered a independent just because anymore both the D and R refuse to even talk and the other side is always stupid. At the end of the day it shouldn't matter what party one belongs to and everybody sould work together . Yea I know a dream.
Mercer's "right" either way. If Noem wins, it means the Marking voters came home. If Varilek wins, it means the Marking voters stayed home or voted for Matt. Who are these Marking voters and how can you tell how or if they voted in 2012? Only the Mighty Carnac knows.
Good post Cory!
You could have just posted "Happy Birthday Kristie Fiegen" or something today. The SDWC has turned into crap and I used to really enjoy it. PP's ghost writers were ten times better than the crap he's putting out lately.
I read the post and notice a comment about an aditional 60 thousand voters voting in 2008 who might not be inclinded to vote for Noem. That could be an issue aswell.
Cory: Mercer's political addiction just feeds ours.
Of course splitting the none-of-the-above or protest vote evenly makes sense but this year will out those people as those leftists left in the lurch by Sam Hurst's Light Brigade.
Say what you want about Mercer, but he generally knows his stuff. So if he is saying its going to come down to the 6% Noem is already way behind where she should be.
My vote is worth just as much as any Republican or Democrat. The GOP will not decide the election, the voters will - all of them. Do not discount or disrespect the value of each individual citizen.
Good point, Joe: if 6% decide this election, Noem has done a terrible job of proving her ability to serve and win votes.
And Mike, yes, the comment you read under Mercer's post makes a lot of sense. Noem got elected in an off year. This year, we can expect more voters at the polls. How those voters swing will have more impact than how the Marking voters swing...
...or will they? The Marking voters were at least engaged enough to come vote without a Presidential choice topping the ticket. Of the 60,000 more who come to the polls this year just because they want to vote for President, how many will be paying attention to the issues down-ticket that the Obama/Romney TV ads won't educate them about? Will they be coin-flippers as well?
[Hey, "oldguy"! Your e-mail isn't working. Send me an address I can use so I can verify your identity, per the comment policy.]
This is my work one I know it works
Had a Republican volunteer canvas our neighborhood yesterday. Asked her what Kristi had done for South Dakota...long silence...then a few empty platitudes.
I asked her if she got that a lot and she smiled politely and shook her head yes. I should have asked to see what was on her clipboard.
Jana; empty, generally false talking points
Jana, I, too, would love to have seen that clipboard and seen the look on that volunteer's face. Do you know if the canvasser was hitting every door or was working from a list of likely voters or swing voters?
Was working in the front yard at the time and watched which houses she went to and my best guess is that she was hitting the registered independents.
Skipped next door, which is all democratic, and the one across the street with the republican yard signs. Both of those homes vote every year so maybe it was swing voters.
A quick spin around the good old War College and the little discussion about the robo calls against Rave have shown what a fissure there is in the GOP ranks. Add to that the steady collapse of the Romney campaign and there will probably be some impact on voter turnout for the GOP.
I'm going to have to buy more popcorn.
That would make sense, Jana. The folks walking doors are likely going to focus their energies the same way the campaigns should be doing with their mailings... and unlike the way the anti-GOP-leadership robocallers are doing. Of course, those outfits have two different goals. Team Noem is trying to find those persuadable voters and get them to pick Kristi. Team "We Hate Lust/Gosch/Rave/Olson" isn't following any clear popular vote recruitment strategy; they just appear to be targeting decided voters who will publicize the calls and cards (why the heck else would I have gotten a couple?).
One other thing that comes to mind is the 2008 election showed a decline in Republican turnout that most of what I've seen is directly related to the McCain/Palin ticket being so bad and far down in the polls. That and McCain was unable to bring in the far right even with adding Palin to the ticket.
Now add to that the soap opera that is the South Dakota GOP and I'm liking what it does for Democratic challengers across the state.
I don't know if Mitt Romney is as loved as a George Bush was in South Dakota. Which could cause some of the GOP to shy away from voting. More people will vote, but with George W. Bush I got the sense that many followed him down the ballot in South Dakota to the other races. I don't know if I get that impression this year, they may vote Romney on top, but will actually look at the House race. Which could hurt Noem, especially if the farm bill continues to be a disaster.
Mitt Romney needs to make a pilgrimage to the Tomb of He Who Must Not Be Named: Republicants for Voldemort.
Kristi Noem is starting to look like Seamus strapped to the roof of the Romney family SUV.
Romney's carbon tax plans:
http://eenews.net/public/climatewire/2012/09/18/1
Depressed GOP turnout? Interesting thought, Jana. Republicans have a disappointing Congresswoman who hasn't done anything to broaden her appeal and may be beating a rookie challenger by just one point. They have a Presidential nominee who placed last in the one primary-season poll of South Dakota voters, lost the GOP straw poll to Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, and was the second choice (maybe third?) of many GOP heavy-hitters. The Republicans are fighting an internal fringe that says the leadership is corrupt and unconservative.
Meanwhile, Democrats have the chance to knock off a national GOP starlet and kill two of Governor Daugaard's signature pieces of legislation, bills that even some Republicans don't like. It seems to me South Dakota Democrats have the "Hoo-yah!" while South Dakota Republicans have the "Ho-hum." Am I letting my optimism get the best of me?
The far right of SD certainly wouldn't have Mitt as their first choice...as a matter of fact, John Thune hasn't exactly been talking much about Romney lately. I think he should count himself lucky that he wasn't selected.
Kristi has been teasing the Tea Party crowd and never really paying off their support from the last election. Who knows, they might not ask her to the dance this year...and who could blame them. Between Ed, Gordie and the SDGO they could very well leave those lines blank.
I hate a tease. And Kristi only scored 60% on the Heritage Action for America Conservative Scorecard, ranking meaning she's less conservative than 130 other GOP Congress critters and 39 Senators.
GOP CO Rep. withdraws support for discharge petition:
"The Club for Growth threatened Republicans who signed the discharge with a bad report card on its website. In the past, negative ratings from the group have often resulted in a club-backed primary opponent or negative advertising."
http://durangoherald.com/article/20120918/NEWS01/120919472/-1/s
House races being shaken by seismic Romney temblors:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/19/hoyer-romney-comments-help-in-every-swing-district-in-america/
If you read the Argus Liar, Romney has been silent this week and last. They did have a fashion show about his suits yesterday and got all their political analysts to discuss political fashion until somebody made fun of them and they just turned it into a photo gallery.