Last updated on 2012.10.07
Mr. Mercer continues to deplore the South Dakota Democratic Party's poor performance in voter registration totals, and rightfully so. According to Secretary of State Jason Gant's latest numbers, on October 1, 187,063 South Dakota voters were registered Democrats. We Dems have shed all of the 13,500 extra voters we added in 2008 when we had candidate Obama to fire up the troops (and South Dakota Dems didn't even like Obama that much). We're still 3,000 voters shy of the 190,905 we had in 2006.
Chairman Ben, I know you're doing lots of other stuff right, but I sure hope your intel says Matt, Matt, and Nick locking up those Indy votes!
To assuage my dismay at the dearth of new Dems signing on to the brand that will save them from theo-plutocracy, I dive into the voter registration spreadsheet to derive some South Dakota electoral trivia!
Consider first voter numbers. If the Legislature does its job right, each of South Dakota's 35 Legislative districts should have about the same population. Our legislators can't control how many people get up and register to vote in each district. But with 519,200 registered voters statewide, we should expect to find an average of 14,834 voters in each district.
Check out the actual totals, along with the percentage deviation from that average, compared with the population deviations the Legislature built into the districts:
There's no race in Districts 30 and 31, which have the first and third most active voters, but take a look at second and fourth on that list, two districts near and dear to my blogging heart. In District 19, Messrs. Nelson, Fenner, Schoenfish, Kloucek, and Van Gerpen have to get the word out to 16,819 active voters, nearly 2,000 more than the statewide average number of active voters per district. In District 8, Messrs. Parsley, Lindsay, Heinemann, Kroger, Johnson, and Olson must communicate with 16,167, 1,300 more than the average. And those candidates must hustle for those votes in rural districts spread across four counties.
Now you might think that the districts with more active voters have larger populations to start with. But compare the fifth column, how far above or below average each district is for number of active voters, with the sixth column, which shows how close the Legislature came to drawing each district's boundaries to include the target population of 23,262. They don't correlate: of the ten counties with the most active voters, seven have lower-than-average population.
I can't figure out what might motivate higher percentages of people in certain districts to register to vote. Are voters in Districts 30, 19, 31, and 8 really more politically engaged than voters elsewhere? Or might they just be older?
Some more minute trivia:
- The craziest districts in the state, as measured by combined Libertarian and Constitution party registration, are 31, 35, 32, 33, and 34, the batty Black Hills. Least loony by the LibCon count: 27, 2, 21, 23, and 1.
- The tightest districts in the state: District 8, where Republicans outnumber Democrats by just 164, and just to the south, District 9, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 142. Both margins represent 1% of active voters. (Come on, Paula! You can take Steve and Bob!)
- Even with that slight GOP edge, District 8 is the sixth-most Democratic district in South Dakota by percentage. The most Democratic: District 27, where Dems are 60.3% of active voters. The most Republican: District 24 (Pierre!) 63.3% of active voters are Republicans.
- The most Independent-minded districts, those with the largest percentages of registered Indies among their active voters, are 7, 35, 15, 9, and 33. Indies make up 20% or more of active voters in 11 districts.
Mr. Montgomery eagerly maps this data. Below is my spreadsheet version of the voter registration data by district. Scroll, copy, paste, and sort at will, and tell us all what numbers you find interesting.
Some of these numbers surprise me. District 28, home to the Bison, Lemmon, Buffalo metroplex, apparently has over 5000 Democrats. I thought Harding and Perkins county had zoning ordinaces that made it illegal for Democrats to move there. (I jest, but only a little.)
Ah, but remember, District 28 is divided into two single-House-member subdistricts. 28A is Indian Country: Corson is Standing Rock Reservation; Dewey and Ziebach are Cheyenne River Reservation. Those three counties have 4257 Democrats—more than found in whole and whiter Districts 33, 30, 35, 24, and 29—and 1734 Republicans. 28B is Butte, Harding, Meade, and Perkins, plus a bit of Corson. In that western half, we find 5093 Republicans and 1690 Democrats.
I figured that out when I clicked on the map. I'll stand by the rest of my comment. I doubt that much has changed since I left the area a couple of decades ago.
On a side note, I wonder if the creation of this district isn't a safe form of gerrymandering. You've provided the stats that show the registration numbers are, but is there any easily obtainable data that show how many registered voters actually vote in each part of that district?
On the other hand, I'm correcting some Hamlet papers this afternoon, so I might just be depressed and see rotteness in the state where none may exist.
There are some obvious mistakes in this data, or at least how it is labeled. Hyde County is no longer part of District 23 but has been moved to District 24. Hand County is now part of District 23 rather than 22. There are other mistakes, the district containing Buffalo County has changed drastically, but without taking the time to check them all out I wouldn't trust these numbers.
It might just be worth a trip to see the change two decades has wrought on that little district LK.
At least it might bolster some support for your statement, or not.
The county descriptions are from before redistricting. See, for instance, District 6 which is no longer Hamlin et al, but is the new Sioux Falls district whose Republicans opted for Mr. Otten rather than Rep. Abdallah in their primary.
Les,
I will amend my statement to say that nothing has changed politically. I visit Lemmon every other year or so during a trip north to see my mother. There are always small changes.
I drive past Keldron on every trip and think wistfully about the country store/post office that used to be there. I suppose I should stop in Meadow and see if the bar is still open. It used to make good burgers.
There are more memories in that world than there folks left to making new ones.
Such is the case of the Buffalo Commons moved to the side by Monsanto Commons with fewer people farming than it would have taken to run chickens and buffalo.
Politically, only The Lord knows, half are very Indy regardless of party and the other half prob walk their party line.
I often wonder, why so many thought the burgers from those small bars and pit stops along the way were so good. It was the aura of a world long gone, I believe, that prepped the mind with a foreplay easily bending the palate of simple country kids.
We all should be alarmed at the reduced numbers and I think that one of the reasons is that our population here in South Dakota is aging. More and more are in nursing homes and the ones that are not, maybe should be. I am not trying to bash our elderly, but most watch Fox News because it comes in clearer than the rest and when folks are screaming on the little thief about the way that our economy is going down the crapper (not true in the least) and how that Black dude is gonna take your Medicaid, it scares the hell out of them, and who can blame them. Maybe if smart folks would go to these nursing homes and to the assisted living and senior centers and tell the truth, we may see some changes. Lets face it, with Denny at the helm of our state and the rest of the dead weight that support him hanging on to his words, our young are leaving this place for greener pastures.
Whoops! Thanks, Susan! Is there an updated list with the counties for each district?
The error is in the county labeling, Nick, not the numbers, and that error is wholly mine. I read the counties from this roster of current legislators. I'll look around and try to update that spreadsheet, perhaps this evening.
Here's why the democrats are irrelevant. They went corporate.
http://truth-out.org/news/item/11304-the-party-is-over
Cut off social security, cut off medicare and medicaid, federal highway welfare, federal agricultural welfare, and luddite South Dakotans will return to the democratic party. Until they are actually hurt, they will dance to the tune of the religious right, the bishops, and the faux moral snake oil salesmen.
The SDDP is doing a wonderful job with social media compared to the SD GOP but the SD GOP can aford to be fat and lazy in SD.
Where the SDDP is lacking is simple. The base and the infrastructure at a county level. It needs to be improved or they will never get off the ground.
This link http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82106.html that Larry posted on another thread makes an important point that SD Dems don't seem to get: serving in Pierre and getting noticed and developing in-state political connections is extremely important if one wants to run for House or Senate.
In ND, Heitkamp was part of a tradition that started used teh tax commissioner's office to build a following before heading to DC. Dorgan did it, Conrad followed. Now a decade or more later, she's trying the same thing but relying on old connections.
I want Noem to lose because she personifies the Peter Principle and SD has only one voice in the House. Matt Varilek has more talent that she does but without the connections and time in state, he and every other Dem trying to advance to DC is in trouble.
I've fixed the district-county lists (or so I think!) using the boundaries described in the Legislature's 2011 redistricting resolution. Let me know if you see any errors!
Seven ways to detect a police state:
http://www.greenisthenewred.com/blog/police-state/6401/