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NBP: Corporate Welfare Down, Sales Tax and Bad Education Policy Up!

Nielson Brothers Polling has released its final survey results on the three major ballot issues South Dakotans will decide this year. The results from their survey of 762 likely voters are mixed:

Yes No Undecided
Referred Law 14
(Corporate Welfare)
20.6% 32.4% 47.0%
Initiated Measure 15
(sales tax for ed/med)
44.2% 37.8% 18.0%
Referred Law 16
(HB 1234: Daugaard's
education "reform")
34.0% 32.7% 33.3%

Again, Nielsons' data point to the possibility that I may face a rude awakening to the popularity of both the Governor and his ideological agenda for wrecking public schools with Referred Law 16. The Nielson numbers on RL16 have flipped since July, when opponents topped supporters 38% to 30%. I'll keep my faith in the big chunk of undecideds to look at a big, complicated bill and take the default position of, "If I don't understand it, I'm not voting for it." (But hey, I'd rather you undecideds understand the bill and realize how bad it is!)

Nielsons find IM 15, the extra-penny sales tax to add funding for K-12 education and Medicaid, still winning. But the "No" vote is gaining steam faster. That fits what I can imagine happening on election day: more people will look at the first line on the ballot, see the words "increase" and "tax," and automatically check "No."

RL 14, the corporate welfare bill, has the biggest undecided chunk. But the Governor and his corporate friends will have to work hard to convince more of them that corproations can only succeed in South Dakota by redistributing wealth up the ladder to folks who can already afford to build five-million-dollar projects.