LK totally gets PP's game. Dakota War College's non-stop coverage of the no-new-news story of whether Brendan Johnson will run for Senate next year makes perfect sense when we realize it's a ruse to keep us from talking about the fracas that will break out if the self-assured Rep. Kristi Noem decides to challenge former Governor M. Michael Rounds for the GOP Senate nomination in 2014.
Roll Call thinks a Johnson–Herseth Sandlin primary battle could be epic. But they lead with more ink on Rounds-vs.-Noem-vs.-etc.:
Rounds is highly unlikely to have a free ride to the nomination, local GOP sources said. South Dakota conservative activists are desperately seeking an alternative to Rounds, a moderate whose eight-year tenure enraged many in the right wing of the party.
While they await a decision from Rep. Kristi Noem, who would offer Rounds a stiff challenge in the primary, one other potential candidate is state Senate Majority Whip Larry Rhoden.
“I think that it’s safe to say that there are a number of people in the state that would like a choice in addition to former Gov. Rounds,” Rhoden said in an phone interview. “I have had some conversations with many folks along that line. I certainly haven’t made any decisions but haven’t ruled it out at the same token” [Kyle Trygstad, "South Dakota Senate Race Ripe for Republican Primary," Roll Call, 2013.03.11].
Dakota War College has been shilling for Mike Rounds since he announced his candidacy. Pat Powers has a clear interest in avoiding any discussion of possible challengers to his preferred potentially patronizing candidate (and we know how Pat Powers loves patronage).
After SB200 goes into effect, will Pat Powers have to disclose his anonymous political cohorts, including his spies?
Rhoden vs. Rounds would be an interesting primary. But Rounds is far more polished and articulate. Rhoden would have a hard time matching Rounds's fundraising unless outside conservative groups backed him, but that could happen. I could see Rhoden losing his cool and becoming flustered at debates. But could he beat Rounds in a primary? Stranger things have happened.
No chance Rhoden runs. He couldn't compete with Rounds on any level. Rhoden is marginally competent as a state senator.
In the Sturgis liquor store i had to tell Sen. Rhoden where Malbec is vinted while Mike Rounds built his house in a swamp.
Let them eat drought.
I dont' think anyone understands the obsession going on at SDWC with Brendan Johnson and Tim Johnson. Sure it's bad press for Brendan but I doubt he's locked in to the senate race like PP and those guys in his circle think.
And if there are conservatives out there who don't want Rounds they aren't being very brave. They are silent. How about a few of them pick up the phone and call the Argus or other papers about it? Kristi Noem will find out if she runs for Senate that a lot of these guys are good at talking in certain circles but not much good for anything public. I bet there aren't 5 legislators with the guts to come out against Rounds. Even if it's Noem there will be very few elected officials with the guts to publicly throw a few stones.
And they can't be legislators who rip daugaard all the time for being a rino. lots of people think daugaard is conservative. the rounds haters have to be reasonable.
I think what powers is doing is covering for Kristi Noem with this stuff.
Almost everyone in the GOP thinks Brendan Johnson is a serious threat to Noem. No one thinks he's that strong against Rounds. My guess is PP knows this and that is why he's pushing the Rounds/Johnson matchup so he doesn't have to talk about a Brendan/Noem matchup.
There is a reason Noem is out campaigning harder now than before the 2012 election.
Jonathan Ellis was nearly lucid yesterday: he said that he believes Noem is barely up to face the inevitable primary contender from far right-field let alone mount a Senate bid.
SHS has the best shot at Thune in 2016 and would trounce Noem in 2014.
Senator Johnson could defend his seat but my gut is telling me that Mike Rounds is such a weak candidate, Brendan Johnson could withstand attacks from the earth haters by prosecuting a case against Rounds' ethical problems.
Bernie for Governor.
Posts like this help explain why the Madville Times is the #1 political blog in South Dakota.
"And if there are conservatives out there who don't want Rounds they aren't being very brave."
You have to have alot of money to beat Rounds. Crony Capitalists, you have the money, don't like "true" conservatives. They like RINOs, like our governor.
Brendan will have his hands full explaining why he needs to get a US Attorney job and US Senate nomination from his dad.... Those overshadow most of what Rounds did when it comes to cronyism or nepotism.
I've said it before Brendan Johnson is a force to be reckoned with in SD Politics. But not against a two term popular governor. Brendan should know not to bite off more than he can chew.
SHS is the only candidate who can face Mike Rounds. She's known and popular. Brendan isn't really either so Rounds will label him. And it will work.
Let us handle Rounds.
Marion's Gardens, Marion's Acres, Marion's Pastures, all developments in Ft. Pierre. All swampland, as Larry points out. Yes, they flooded & will flood again. I've always wondered why anyone was allowed to build on that worthless bottomland. I've also wondered who the developer of those areas is. Any ideas?
Then there was federal stimulus money used to build a canal, essentially for drainage. I was told Governor Rounds parks his boat there, but I don't know for a fact.
On an unrelated note, would Brendan ever investigate Republicans for ethical issues as Larry suggested? I highly doubt it. Even a meritorious case would be controversial and would appear politically motivated. Going after pimps and child support cheats is less risk/greater reward for a future political candidate.
I hope all the South Dakota wing-nut right apologists for mythology and fraudulent ideology so appalled by the "nepotism" of Johnson and Johnson are equally appalled by another Bush running for political office in Texas.
Napoli for czar.
Only in South Dakota would Mike Rounds be considered a moderate. He's a pretty conservative guy, but because he's got functioning synapses, he's just not going to go over well with the brain dead conservatives.
If we're talking nepotism, I wouldn't call Rounds' rise to be entirely his own doing. His father had lots of connections in business and Republican circles. Connections get you a leg up in most places, but especially in South Dakota.
Has anyone wondered where these stories are coming from? Who is feeding these stories to Powers? It has to be Tony Post or a better connected SD GOP smear merchant.
These stories are not organic and are not showing up in papers on their own. Someone is feeding this angle to the papers. The question is why.
Brendan and Stephanie have both been really low key as far as I'm concerned and I don't think we have seen anything from either about their potential plans. It's all speculation.
Dave, I appreciate the sentiment, but LK/Displaced Plainsman did the hard thinking and dot-connecting.
Mike, I wonder: suppose Brendan does face Rounds. When Rounds trots out the nepotism line, could Brendan win by first demonstrating his merits and then hammering Rounds for nepotism? Would it hit Rounds harder because Brendan could show it's Rounds himself using power to give favors to friends and family, whereas Brendan has never used his power in such a way?
Tony Post doesn't know diddly, does he, Mike? The better connected smear merchant would be the new chari, adman Lawrence, right?
If the race does come down to B. Johnson vs. M. Rounds, I think South Dakotans will be treated to 4-6 months of argument about whether it is worse to be person who practices nepotism or the person who is the beneficiary of nepotism.
By the time election day comes around 80% of the voters who cast a ballot will feel dirty no matter who they vote for.
"Only in South Dakota would Mike Rounds be considered a moderate. He's a pretty conservative guy"
Rounds had others do his liberal dirty work so he could keep himself clean. Crony Capitalist disqualifies you as a conservative just as much as being pro-abortion and/or anti-gun rights.
CPAC is the Star Wars bar scene of conservatism.
A few pictures to help illustrate Larry's point.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/03/14/greetings-from-cpac.html
Funny, LK: the SD legislature has its own set of freaks, too:
http://my605.com/pierrereview/?p=8098
LK, I don't think that a Brendan vs. Rounds senate race would revolve around "nepotism." I think Mike Rounds would follow his tried and true formula of being a nice guy, running a positive campaign. Brendan would simply have trouble gaining any traction just like Rounds's prior opponents. Rounds wins that race.
The wildcard is if some conservative bloodies up Rounds in a primary, or somehow steals the nomination. That's the scenario that makes it most likely for Dems to hold the senate seat. Right now, I'd say Dems trade Johnson's senate seat for Noem's house seat. But it's all speculation this early.
R,
I don't disagree that Rounds will try to smile his way through. He will, however, have surrogates. In the post Citizens United World, he doesn't have to do anything. Someone else can be the pit bull for him. I may subscribe to Netflix and HULU+ so I don't have to watch TV during this upcoming election cycle.
Daugaard came out for Rounds today; expect others to fall in line, so any primary challenge will be someone loud but without much skill. Napoli or Strong or the resident wild person of the week aren't going to be much of threat.
I have no inside knowledge, but I can't see the Democrats winning one of the big three--governor, senate, or house--this election.
I'll repeat here in shortened form what I posted on my blog a few days back. Democrats need to get more seats in the legislature, make sure they do something with those seats by getting things passed with some of a few disaffected Republicans. They should focus on Pierre in some statewide races to develop solid candidates to get the governorship. That seat is far more important that the US House or the 2 US Senate seates. That's a long term process, however.
For this cycle, Dems should find a couple of rich guys willing to spend their own money to keep the races at 54%-46%. Unless she gets hit with a primary challenge from the right, I think Noem will beat B. Johnson or Herseth-Sandlin.
BTW, did you pull the screen-name from Watchmen? (I may have asked before but forgot.)
Yes.
Crony capitalism is what conservatives are all about. Rounds fits right in.
LK, I hope we can find those surrogates on our side to help stanch the bombardment we'll get from Rounds' surrogates. And even if the take-the-Legislature strategy makes sense, we've still got to find someone who can pour on the heat and make Rounds, Noem, and Daugaard drain their campaign coffers. That's the hard part of the Dem battle in SD: we have to fight hard on every front. There is no one narrow route to victory.
R, is there any way to draw Rounds himself out of the nice-guy role? Is there any way to challenge his record, point out eight years of visionless leadership, and make him personally start swinging back?
Yes Cory. It starts with a conservative primary opponent for Rounds. That person would hit a little too close to home talking about Rounds's record. Stace Nelson for example has never been afraid to tell it like it is. He's not intimidated by a Daugaard endorsement of Rounds, or by the crony capitalists rallying around Rounds. With deep pocket backers, someone like Stace could pummel Rounds and force him to fight back or lose. Conservatives have taken on establishment Republicans in other states and stole senate nominations. Their challenge is in reaching out after the primary to gather votes for the general election. SD is a more conservative state than say Connecticut or Nevada, so if a conservative wins the primary they may take the general. I think the strongest Dem - Stephanie - has a 50/50 shot against Rounds in the general. But if the GOP nominee is other than Rounds, then Stephanie would be favored. If Stace wants a statewide race though, the 2014 Senate race is his best shot at the brass ring.
If it were Rounds vs. SH-S I simply would not vote for either of them. Perhaps SH-S would win by default.
R, Stace could be our Jesse Ventura. Might Stace be the only politician in the ugly Gordon Howie–Tea Party constellation savvy enough to mount a credible GOP challenge?
Joelie, if that's the matchup we get, I'll come back to you to make an all-hands-on-deck pitch.
Cory is probably going to ban me for being the most negative guy in the room, but I just don't see any of these scenarios happening.
Republicans may be fighting with each other more than they have in recent memory, but all any Republican needs to do to get every other Republican in area to start singing "Kumbaya" is loudly say "Obama is the Devil."
The rest of the story is simple. Rounds can tell business folks he'll be a necessary vote to repeal Obamacare and protect businesses from this "unsustainable tax." If he's sure there's no cameras, he'll tell the far right folk that he'll make sure that Obamacare won't force them to wear the Mark of the Beast
Nationally, Karl Rove has already said that he'll put his money machine into motion to cut off challenges from the right so that Republicans can take the Senate. The numbers aren't that good for the Dems this cycle, so the national Dems aren't going to put that many resources into SD unless they think South Dakota will be their political version of the Alamo.
If I were to bet, there are few volunteers on Team Rounds tasked with combing the SD blogosphere and local papers looking for stuff Stace has written or said. if he does run, there will be a concentrated effort to turn him into a candidate that makes Sibby look rational. If they do their job, they may even get a bunch of conservative and moderate Dems to register Republican and vote for Rounds in the primary just to keep South Dakota from sending a loose cannon to Washington.
Rounds left the state with a budget mess. His accomplishments as Governor are meager. When he's on TV, he's boring and plastic. Those negatives should be enough to stop him, but as soon as a Republican starts to point out those fact, someone will scream "Obama is the Devil," and all will be forgotten.
Maybe Rounds's wife was an actress. People can accuse him of being married to a thespian. (I know that George Smathers did not really defeat Claude Pepper with that allegation, but it's a fun story.)
No banning for negativity... but I'm surrounded by pessimists!
Will Obamacare still have legs as a GOP in 2014, after it kicks in fully?
http://interested-party.blogspot.com/2013/03/rounds-brother-brother-in-law.html
someone go tell PP that he screwed the shark long, long ago.
er: jumped the pooch.