I'm not sure if we call this pooping or getting off the pot, but Stace is in! Rick Weiland's chances of winning in November just doubled.
Rep. Stace Nelson will formally announce his intentions to bring his RINO hunt to the big stage in Alexandria and Rapid City on Sunday, August 18.
Nelson is handing out hot dogs, t-shirts, and mementos. That already puts his announcement above any other Senate launch in the state so far.
Here's the press release, from my inbox:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: August 13th, 2013
Stace Nelson To Announce Run For South Dakotan's US Senate Seat
Fulton, SD - One of South Dakota's most conservative elected officials, Representative Stace Nelson (R-District 19), announced he will be hosting receptions in Alexandria & Rapid City on August 18th, to announce that he is entering the U.S. Senate race and offering to serve South Dakotans as their next U.S. Senator.
12:00-2:00 PM (Announcement at 1:00 PM) Hanson High School Gymnasium, Alexandria. Hot dogs, Chips, & refreshments will be served.
4:00-6:30 PM (MDT) (Announcement at 5:15 PM) VFW Post 1273, Rapid City. Refreshments will be served.
Supporters, well wishers, and the press, are invited. T-shirts, & small mementos, will be presented to those who attend [Rep. Stace Nelson, press release, 2013.08.13].
Prepare for Stace Nelson to dwarf the competition and give Mike Rounds a run for his money. And prepare for the Rounds-Dick Wadhams campaign dreadnought to open full fire on the Fulton Fulminator.
His slogan should be: "Semper Fi for Senate." He can put that on the front of his t-shirts and on the back he can put, "Rounds, sit down!" (As Governor, Rounds liked to pander to veterans by asking them to stand for applause. Yet Rounds, who is not a veteran, always remained standing which gave those who didn't know any better the false impression that Rounds was a veteran too.)
Good point, Rorschach. Rounds took a lot of pride in sending other people's kids off to war in Iraq and spoke at their funerals. How Nelson responds to Rounds shamelessly exploiting all that press hype will be a test.
More importantly, I'm pumped up! This otherwise sleepy Senate race just got exciting. Did Stace get a competent campaign manager, fundraiser and press person, or is he just John Waynin' it? Will his star shoot up straight and strong, or will he fall victim to (his and their) distractions and flame out? Is this going to be a serious, disciplined Senate campaign or a vision quest on the empty prairie for another politico?
Mike Rounds can't run a high school homecoming king campaign any more. He now has a real opponent who can authentically talk about what it's like to vote against big spending and fatter government, something nobody else in the campaign can do. And for grins, watch to see which reporters will take the extra step to cover Rounds' flanks.
Stay tuned. This will get fun!
If Nelson does half of what you two are encouraging him to do he will be seen as disrespectful and not connect with any voters.
I knew Rick would be excited. Mike, where's the disrespect in the campaign strategy Rick suggests? And would Rick's recommendations be any more disrespectful than the great volleys of bushwah Dick Wadhams will rain down on Nelson to drown Rounds's most serious GOP challenger?
Mike, if you were advising Nelson on how to win as the only real conservative in the hunt, would you have him start by apologizing for his votes against big spending budgets?
Step One: Win the primary. Your South Dakota GOP has low turnouts. The most inspired voters will be the ones who show up. These voters respond favorably to strong leadership figures who talk tough about big spending government and social values.
Step Two: Win the general.
Nelson, in theory, stands the best shot at Step One if he runs a campaign that appeals to that particular group of most likely voters. Step Two depends on how well he did to win Step One and emerge as a strong populist leader in the tradition of Bill Janklow ... who was also a U.S. Marine. Nelson won't win anything by hiding his candle under the bushel basket.
I wouldn't say someone is phony in their respect for veterans just because that person didn't serve.
And sorry not Rick I should have only said Rorschach (who I usually agree with).
When Rounds asked veterans to stand, he should have sat down with the rest of the non-veterans. Or said that "I'm not a veteran, but these folks are. Give them a round of applause." Instead, he just stood with them and tried to make people believe he was one of the veterans. That's shady, and shows a real lack of respect for veterans. Somebody needs to call him out if he pulls that same crap in a senate campaign.
I agree Cory that Weiland's chances just doubled.
I'm making popcorn and getting ready to sit back, watch and enjoy
Stace is in - let the fun begin!
And, Rick - you are right. The homecoming king/class president b.s. is going to stop for M.M.R. Now, he will have to campaign on a record that has an awful lot of "hmmmmm"s in it, including budget overruns, secret "hunt" lists, bloating of state government, and, oh, whose company has all those state health insurance contracts?
What about state jobs and contracts for family and pals? And what about that land swap scandal in the Black Hills? The Rounds Gravy Train would certainly be a topic in a real campaign.
Paging Alan Fenner: Stace's announcement likely means an open seat in District 19. Come and get it! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bupoBw8aZps
Appreciate all your comments! My concern, does Nelson have a good chance to win the general election and what would he look like as our Senator? What do you think his focus would be and what would he be able to do for South Dakota? Am interested in your thoughts!
Robin - Very good questions. All of this is conjecture predicated on what I've read and seen about him, and upon the assumption Nelson doesn't make gaffes as he is very strong-willed.
General election - If he wins the primary with a strong finish, doesn't make gaffes and emerges as a credible champion for regular folks, he could win the general. The momentum must come from the primary going forward. He can't limp out of a primary.
As Senator - At 6'7" tall and with his military background and the reputation as a straight-talking champion of regular folks back home, he'd be a natural superstar in D.C. It would be like Scott Brown on steroids and without the Playgirl centerfold hoopla. Thune, who also didn't serve in the military, would have to stay out of Stace's way.
Focus - 100 percent on what's fair and right for regular folks in South Dakota and across the nation. He would really shake things up in D.C. not for his personal glorification, but to knock some common sense and honesty into Congress in both parties. While Nelson is passionate about what he thinks a GOP leader ought to say, do and vote, he may turn into one of the most personable members of Congress that South Dakota has ever elected.
Cory, I'd like to see Nelson and Weiland start debating the issues immediately. They're the only ones addressing the real issues as far as I can tell.
Let's hear — in depth — what they both have to say, where they agree and where they don't.
No sound bites. Get to the meat of it.
If that happens, this could be the one of the hottest Senate races in SD history.
Time to light some grassfires, mon.
Brilliant! Bill's right. If this gets done the conventional way, Rounds will be able to control the narrative in the press who are sold on his inevitable Senate-hood. Plan B(ill) would pack a lot more meaning for the public than Plan A. Rounds is hoping to waltz in like he's the incumbent. He depends on everybody staying asleep until November 2014.
I think Bill Fleming's plan would be great. I wonder if the candidates would be up for that.
I'd just as soon see Stace go after Rounds. There is no advantage for Weiland to agree to this.
He's going to benefit by Stace going after Rounds
Stace would be as big of a problem for Thune as anyone else...
The debate idea would get some attention for a while.
Is there any precedent for a pre-primary debate between candidates of opposing parties? Is it in any Republican candidate's interest to give Rick Weiland that extra early publicity?
A pre-primary GOP-Weiland debate would give GOP primary voters the most direct opportunity to evaluate their candidate's competitiveness in the general election.
Last election the corn growers had a debate for governor with five republicans and one democrat all at the same debate here at the holiday inn in sioux falls. I do not know if that is a precident but it happened.
DWC is eerily quiet over Stace entering the earth hater Senate primary.
The target audience for Plan B is independents who have nothing to do until after the June primary. Nelson would attract a lot of independents. Weiland must carry a majority of independents to win the general. It doesn't matter if it's been done before or not, Cory. Just do it and let the independent voters know they're not being ignored while Rounds and his heat shields run against Stace Nelson.
Anyone see the most recent installments of "The Newsroom" where the lead character (jeff Daniels) criticizes the "Ocuupy Wall Street" movement for not having a leader and a real agenda? I'm thinking the debates between Nelson and Weiland can cover some of that territory and help "what needs to happen next" take shape, at least here in the confines of little ol' South Dakota.
Owen, I hear you on going after Rounds. My point is, why wait? Bpoth candidates (Nelson and Weiland) are going to have to do it sooner or later. I'm just saying why not sooner?
Exactly. Playing by conventional rules guarantees conventional results. The offices in the State Capitol are full of conventional results.
That's been the story for Democrats for the last 12 years in South Dakota. They get their usual 35 to 40 percent on election day and get dismissed. The new pathway to success means changing the rules.
The only permission that matters to any legally qualified candidate is that of the voters. Democrats need to figure out how to get back to getting 50 percent plus. Set the debates now and commit news.
Which organization could host such a debate?
The Plan B Committee. Want a conventional organization to host these, or do you want a lasting movement?
Plan B can start in South Dakota as a coalition of folks who are tired of big money and power clic interests stamping out slick droids who mouth the pre-fab soundbites, flash the fake smiles and pat you on the back so you get out of their face and move along.
I personally think that Bosworth's best move now, is ride the campaigning run through the State Fairs and then drop out and announce her support for Stace Nelson.
Maybe an organization like http://www.chiesman.org/ could host it?
I heard my good friend Bill's idea at breakfast and I was at first dubious but now am sold. Let us make these debates happen.
I nominate Bob Mercer for moderator.
If Nelson is the next Janklow, then we Dems are in big trouble for the fall of 2014. If Nelson fails in the primary, then the Ventura effect comes into play where his voters show-up and leave with him without any true impact upon Rounds's popularity in the general election.....either way the Dems are in trouble.
If Weiland wants to win this, he needs campaign literally door-to-door like Daschle did in 1978. His campaign cannot mimic his 1996 campaign nor Johnson's 1986 or SHS's campaigns in 2002 and 2004. Varilek's serious bid
in 2012 proved that it takes more than press conferences and TV commercials to win as a Democrat statewide. Weiland needs to take it to the voters and I am not just talking about publicity stunts at local cafes, I am talking about taking it to peoples' homes and setting aside serious money for a get out the vote strategy.
Rick wisely points to the positive Indy focus a Nelson-Weiland pre-primary debate would have. Bill's right that precedent doesn't matter—the fact that it's unusual (Roger, do you remember the date of that corn growers event? I need to look that up!) makes it even more worth doing. I would think unconventional and appeal to Indies would make Stace all the more inclined to go for it.
But again, can a primary candidate facing an uphill battle afford to take that big a swing at voters who can't help him in the primary? Doesn't every resource have to be dedicated to June 3 GOP get-out-the-vote?
Or is the trick here to hold the Nelson-Weiland events early enough (April would actually be plenty) to allow Nelson to make his pitch to Indies and say, "Help me out: go down and re-register as Republicans so you can vote for me on June 3"?
pure populism v. The Establishment: priceless.
So just curious here... who would rather have a Senator Stace Nelson instead of a Senator Mike Rounds and why? I know the thought is if Stace Nelson is the nominee then more of the Independents will vote for Weiland and he has a better chance. Either that or the citizens will be wary of an ugly primary and decide that they will just vote for Weiland in the general. The problem is Weiland also has to pick up a decent percentage of the Republicans along with a big majority of the Independents and hold virtually all of the Democrats. Last time I checked party membership figures in SD the Democrats in the State were way down compared to the Republicans.
The fact remains that to be a successful Democratic candidate in this State you have to appeal to a decent number of Republican voters. That is how Tom Daschle, Tim Johnson, and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won.
I personally have no idea how Weiland stands on the issues. The only thing I can find on his website is that he wants to "take it back" and I guess that means he won't support special interests. How does he stand on the 2nd Amendment? Marriage equality? Raising taxes? Cutting spending? etc. etc. I have no idea. He has plenty of time to let us know where he stands, but without a primary challenger we might not see him really develop as a candidate until after the June GOP primary.
A Nelson-Weiland debate prior to the primary only further legitimizes Nelson's candidacy, which no Democrat should be in the business of doing.
Nelson is not a Christine O'Donnell (Delaware). On the other hand, if Nelson is a O'Donnell then such a debate would only strengthen Rounds's candidacy... either way the Democrats lose.
Yes, O'Donnell did win her primary and lose the general, but Nelson is far more credible as a candidate then O'Donnell. Nelson is a Janklow populist and helping Nelson as Democrats is playing with fire... that is if you have the true Democratic Party's interest in your heart.
Let the Republicans have their own self-induced dog fight while Weiland effectively works the back roads of South Dakota.
I have to agree with Winston on this one. I'd say leave the debates out of it until after we find out who the GOP nominee will be. I would also agree that Stace Nelson is no Christine O'Donnell and if people see him as a Janklow populist he might run very strong. Many Democrats and Independents voted for Janklow over the years even if they didn't admit it after the fact. It should be an interesting few months.
Ugly primary works for me.
just seeing marion and victor standing on the same dais is going to be a rush.
mitt and jeff
Winston, if a Dem held a one-on-one debate with a GOP primary candidate, might that delegitimize the GOP candidate, make the Republican voters think that the Dems want that candidate?
$9 million shot into a Senate race smells like napalm in the morning.
Nelson could run the table - if he plays smart. Too much is made here of his being a veteran, so was senate candidate Leo Thorsness. Unlike Nelson, Thorsness has heroic bona fides, yet lost, significantly. Then like now, 1) most people are not veterans; 2) it was the end of a very unpopular war where folks had war and veteran fatigue; 3) most people are not veterans and think that veterans just 'did what they were told' - didn't lead, didn't make decisions, didn't show initiative - doubt it, than ask yourself why veterans unemployment is higher than for non-veterans. Nelson's best use of his veteran experience is modesty, humbleness, allowing others to talk about it. Frankly at 270+ pounds or whatever he doesn't look like a Marine.
Trust, quiet confidence, humble competence, and a reasonable, gentle libertarian streak are the currency of successful SD politicians. Nelson exhibited that and more so he could easily win - despite that the SD republican party may likely pull out all the stops to silence and defeat him. Many voters and most independents will see through the organized attacks. He'll need significant support because if his legislative past is prologue, he will not receive it from the editors, banksters, lobbyists - the usual suspects whom have likely bought Rounds.
Nelson, unlike most politicians, knows what right looks like. Nelson has a public reputation of doing the harder good over choosing easier paths. We'll learn more about Weiland, but today, it's Nelson's to lose; though it's a long time until 2014.
Cory, it could, but this only matters if Nelson is the front runner now or at the time of the debate, which he is not and probably won't be, but he could become that if he holds himself in a debate.. and I am also confident Nelson would hold his own in this debate scenario and only further legitimize his candidacy, that's why the whole "Nelson card" which some fellow Dems seem eager to execute must be carefully done because they are truly playing with fire... Nelson is not a O'Donnell or a Sharron Angle (Nevada), rather he is a conservative Republican version of former Governor Schweitzer with the body language of the late great actor John Candy (.... that's actually a compliment by the way, I miss Candy)... as long as "Uncle Buck" does not show-up and Schweitzer does, I think he could resonate with a lot of Republican voters.
In addition, the whole idea of a Weiland/Nelson debate brings back haunting memories of the August 1979 debate between McGovern and Janklow over the state tourism industry, the national energy policy or lack of, and the state and national economies... It definitely did not shut-up Janklow or lessen his popularity and it definitely did not help McGovern a year later.
(Janklow debated McGovern—interesting! Here's a brief account of that debate between the governor and the senator written by Denise Ross in October 2004. Note also that Jim Abdnor refused to debate McGovern in 1980.)
No one can replace Bill Janklow.
Abdnor knew better than to debate McGovern, such a debate would have only tighten the race.
I remember in the fall of 1980, former President Gerald Ford came to South Dakota to campaign for Abdnor and a South Dakota reporter, I think from KELO, asked the former President if he thought debate was an important part of the political process in the electing of a candidate. Ford answered "yes" as Abdnor stood next to him on camera, then Abdnor developed a very sick look on his face like he had just ate a crow....
"No one can replace Bill Janklow."
One Janklow was more than enough. We only had one cement plant and mineral resources to give away to a Mexican corporation. Doing away with usury laws costs SD farmers millions of dollars while it put a few jobs into Sioux Falls doing the work of interest parasites.
Doug, you must have heard the radio today with Ross and Ellis telling listeners that Nelson, Rhoden and Bosworth are just going to carve up the field ensuring Rounds' nomination: do you agree with that?
Oh my god. Please not another Janklow!
IP, I missed most of the "Political pundits" chatter today. As for the point you mentioned, I really don't know. Rounds was very lucky once, but lightning may not strike twice. Perhaps it depends on if the campaigns get to tossing personal mud. My guess is they learned that the GOP party regulars have no sense of humor and will not be risking anything. But, we might expect some last day radio and TV ads (ala Janklow) that are really rotten and that could have any kind of effect. As you may have guessed by now, I really don't have a clue on this.
Anyone here ever changed their party membership just to vote in a primary and then changed back? I'd do it to vote for Stace if there is no Dem primary this year. I have watched some videos and done some research since he announced and although we share different views on certain social issues I like his populist views and support for the 2nd Amendment. I feel like even though we might disagree on some stuff he would still listen to what I had to say as a citizen. Basically if a politician will put me (a law abiding SD citizen and taxpayer) ahead of the special interests, party and corporations then I can respect them no matter their party.
Even with their ideological differences I believe the same could be said for Rep. Nelson or Weiland. I figured this whole thing was finished with a Rounds win right through the general, but things might be getting exciting.
BH76, changes in party registration helped Roger McKellips defeat Harvey Wollman back in '78.
Maybe all of us Dems should switch our party registration to the GOP just to vote for Bosworth.... Slam dunk for the Dems and Rick Weiland in 2014!
BH76, on openness and listening, note that of the four declared GOP candidates, Nelson is the only one who's ever taken time to read the comments on this blog and respond.
Larry, Ross and Ellis underestimate the ability of one challenger to dominate the others and make it a two-person race.
Winston, if Dems do engage in an Operation Chaos, they would waste their votes on Bosworth. Suppose enough Dems switched and voted to contribute 10% to the final tally. If they all voted for Bosworth, she would get a total of 15%.