Kevin Woster reports on a fun twist in South Dakota political history. He finds that Ted Muenster, a Democrat who tried to unseat Larry Pressler from the Senate in 1990, has been gathering signatures for Pressler to run as an Independent for Senate this year.
Not that Muenster thinks Pressler will win:
“I think most of his votes could come from people who otherwise might not vote,” Muenster said. “He could bring people into that process.”
How many people? How many votes?
“I suspect that if he gets on the ballot, he could get double digits,” Muenster said. “He might even get 20 percent” [Kevin Woster, "Pressler Hopes to Catch American Hustle Buzz," KELOLand.com, 2014.02.26].
Muenster apparent suffers from the same malady as I: uncontrollable sympathy for underdogs. The potential to win 20% of the vote isn't something I get excited about unless I'm running in a tight six-way race.
If Muenster is right about Pressler's appeal to usual electoral non-participants, then that 20% might not affect the outcome of the election. But if Rick Weiland can pull close to Mike Rounds, that 20% could be getting a lot of phone calls and postcards come October.
Larry is the best choice. Had my vote
Nope. Rounds would beat both 54-26-20
I'm afraid Weiland is way better than both and an upset will happen. People will see what a fake Rounds is
Was snooping around the press release blog and the Powers guy reported the recent Rassmussen Poll on the senate and governor's race.
Rounds 51% and Weiland with 31%. Note the 20% factor or the Pressler 20% solution. Actually 6% preferred another candidate and 11% were undecided.
Not that I trust Rassmussen that much, but the 20% did jump out at me.
Rassmussen has Dauggard at 63% over Lowe with 23%.
There are far too many variables still out in this race for anyone to make an accurate prediction of the fall outcome. For instance, will more EB-5 facts come out before June, which could give the Republican nomination to one of the other candidates, or will these facts emerge after the primary thus further weakening Rounds in the fall, and could they be damaging enough to force the SD GOP to replace Rounds as the nominee, or will the EB-5 scandal be packaged as merely a Benda scandal with Rounds living for another political day?
In addition to the fact, that I think Pressler has stronger name ID than Weiland, there is a lot of buzz out there that Pressler is taking not only from Rounds but also Weiland too, which could explain why Weiland appears to be running right now as the "Liberal" alternative. Pressler appears to be first establishing his "Democratic" credentials for this race, thus painting Weiland into a corner of "I am the true Liberal", before he goes after a hopefully weakened Rounds in the fall with a more moderate tone designed to take from the undecideds and those within the Rounds camp who are soft supporters.
Painting Weiland as the liberal or allowing him to do that himself to keep his Democratic base from hemorrhaging will make it harder for Weiland to compete with Pressler for the undecideds or the soft Rounds' supporters in the fall.
This is a brilliant strategy, I am not sure if it is by design or fate, but the only way Weiland can marginalize Pressler with the Democratic vote is if he can effectively make age or past Senate voting records an issue, but if Weiland were to do this effectively I think the outcome would be to merely solidify his potential Democratic base and turn moderate and/or conservative undecideds to Rounds, and I question if that is enough for a Democrat to win this race even with three candidates running, unless Rounds is severely weakened by EB-5 come November and Weiland as a candidate of hope can effectively paint Pressler into a corner like the one I am currently alleging Weiland is walking into.
I am reminded of two past elections, which this Senate race appears to mimic, the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial race between Ventura, Coleman, and "Skip" Humphrey, and the 1992 Presidential race between Bill Clinton, Bush41, and Perot, but with two different outcomes. The question we must ask ourselves is whether Pressler is the Ventura of '98 or will Weiland be the Clinton of '92. Will Pressler's independent message prevail over the perennial Democratic retread and the never truly tested Republican, because Weiland has run unsuccessful before like "Skip," and Rounds is merely the by-product of the old Kirby/Barnett cat fight and not a genuine product of his own like Coleman who was an untested party switcher at the time, or will Weiland's "liberal" message prevail as a message of hope with a plurality of the voters, or will the "Nine Million Dollar Man" live another day?…. Time will only tell and there are definitely many variables out there still to be discovered or uncovered.
Rasmussen is Republican and biased. I'm with Owen. Rounds is out of state, out of mind. Pressler is a long shot that isn't going to happen.
Then again, Larry might just pull off an upset and surprise victory. Weiland is not popular enough and the EB-5 Scandal could do in Mike Rounds.
Senator Pressler might just earn his 4th term.
Would Pressler's fourth term mean that he has effectively destroyed the fourth term jinx in South Dakota, or does it merely mean that an asterisk would be attached to his tenure?….(Say What?)
If Pressler did get back-in his past 18 years of Senate tenure would count towards his seniority, which means Thune would still be the junior Senator…. there's another asterisk for you…..
Awesome that Larrys now control the world now that the Bills have passed the bong. Rue the day when the Jasons and the Ashleys start running for office.