During Monday night's Lawrence County GOP Candidates Forum here in Spearfish, House candidate Gary Coe from Lead told me that he recently received a telephone polling call. He was asked whom he backs in the District 31 Senate and House races. Coe says he was then asked how he feels about Governor Dennis Daugaard's job performance.
I've heard grapevinally that other South Dakotans in other districts have received similar poll calls. The poll recording does not identify the sponsor clearly. A friend who checked the caller ID said the number given comes up as a disconnected number in Forestburg.
One of my more suspicious readers says these polling calls have only rung in districts where Republicans who voted for the Governor's education bill are facing primary challenges. That's not quite the case in the District 31 House race, where the only incumbent in our four-man field, Fred Romkema, changed his mind from the first House vote and sensibly, admirably, courageously voted against HB 1234 on the final round. But the District 31 Senate incumbent, Tom Nelson, voted an unabashed aye on HB 1234.
So I'm curious: first, has anyone else received these calls? Can anyone provide examples of polling in other districts with Republicans who voted against HB 1234?
And second, who would be running this poll at this point? Maybe one candidate would have the cash to poll his or her own district. But a multi-district effort would appear to require some coordination. Who would have an interest in such an effort on behalf of multiple Republican candidates? Could the Governor be harvesting some data to help his water-carriers? Could Gordon Howie be scraping together cash to help some of his conservative Christian insurgents? Who's gathering this data, how will they use it, and why?
Several of the issues campaigns have that kind of money (and interest).
"Who would have an interest in such an effort on behalf of multiple Republican candidates? Could the Governor be harvesting some data to help his water-carriers?"
Heard that a person within the governor's office admits to putting on the robo calls. Has anyone heard of the constitutional principle called separation of powers?
My husband got the call about 3 weeks ago...District 4 Begalka vs Rausch.
Bill, could it be the NEA polling to send some HB 1234 signals?
Steve, there's no separation of powers issue here, is there? Constitutionally, does anything prevent members of the Executive branch from polling or even offering campaign support to Legislative candidates? The party may have issues with such efforts from high party members, but there's no court case, is there? (And yes, our speculation runs rampant.)
Rausch vs. Begalka: might that be the biggest primary in the Legislative races?
I'm not working on any of the issues, Cory, but I think I might know some of the teams who are, and if so, they are good teams.
All I'm saying is that it's not uncommon, when you have a Statewide poll in the field to ask some extra questions not specifically related to your issue. That could be the case with either side of the sales tax or the school issue, but that's just a hunch.
You could perhaps get a feel for who is polling you by listening carefully to the questions being asked.
But if it's just a short poll, and the only questions being asked are about candidates, that's a different animal. Plus, the issues polls would most likely not be robo calls.
They're calling in District 24 (Pierre), where both House members voted for HB1234. There are primaries there, but not between candidates with differences denoted by their vote on that bill.
I heard those Lautenshlagger boys are behind this.
It's the governor's office Cory.
The one person I would suspect is Jason Glodt who was Executive Director of the SD GOP in 2004 and Political Director in 2008. I know he coordinated automated polls for specific state senate races that year. He's still very much involved in politics working for Daugaard and he also was he guy behind the scenes making sure Venhuizen didn't screw things up...
My money says it's the Governor's office checking up on Tea Party twinged candidates against strong allies to the Governor.
I suspect the Lautenshlaggers. Probably one of Mr. Sibby's operatives are actually programming the robot calls, but it's probably the Lautenshlaggers who are pulling the strings and wrote the questions.
Bill, my understanding is it's a brief candidate poll. Senate, House, like the Governor, that's it. If I were an issues group, would those three questions give me enough information to do some work for my issue?
No, Cory.
Didn't think so. I'd love to see some statewide polling data lining up HB 1234, the corporate welfare referendum, gubernatorial approval, and some local races.
Pardon me if I'm being simple, Bill, but I want to make sure my wild speculation is at least based on logic. What could we do with the data from the above three questions? If I'm a Lauchtenslager or Howie, I can maybe identify which of my conservative Christian soldiers are lost causes. If I'm Glodt or some other member of Team Daugaard, I can pay back folks who voted with me on HB 1234 or other issues with some data that they might find useful....
...but I wonder: how many of the GOP primaries stand a chance of being close? The two guys I take as being Gordon Howie's guys here in District 31, Coe and Ewing, strike me as long shots, unless they have some political capital that they didn't put on display here Monday night. Is this polling going to provide any candidate with actionable data?
Mr. H, what if it's those heinous Conservatives with Common Sense who are out there planting more seeds in the public's mind against 1.2.3.4 whilst still pushing the non-TEA party republicans towards a win? That's what I'm hoping it is.
I'm just sayin.
If you have any data at all Cory, you're miles ahead of a candidate who doesn't. A poll properly executed could tell you which races were close, who the undecideds are and which arguments flip them into your camp. If you know these answers and the other guy doesn't, you can probably win. Sometimes it's even simple than that. Sometimes it's just a matter of pushing name ID real hard.
The person that calls me the most does NOT get my support. I had my fill of robo political calls a few years ago. They should be banned.
GLODT/DUSTY/VENHUIZEN.
Looking out for certain members who don't go around talking about Daugaardcare all the time.
Mike, maybe you're simply engaging in synecdoche by describing the Tea Party in terms of one of its favorite talking points, but I would find it hilarious if Team Daugaard were actually worried about all the irrelevant shouting the Howie-Weaver-Sibsonites make about Daugaard being a tool of ObamaCare. Does any reasonable denizen on Capitol second floor believe such rantings have political legs? Howie and friends could get their stop-ObamaCare on the ballot last year. That issue by itself can't be enough to motivate a political response from the Republican Establishment, can it?
A governor providing help to those legislators who helped him pass HB1234 is not a separation of powers violation? GOP legislators being told that if they want a future in the SDGOP, they have to do what the governor wants? I thought it was the legislature that developed the policy and the executive branch who carries it out. Isn't things backwards nowadays?
Steve, it's not a constitutional violation. You can't reach constitutional tentacles into the operation of each party. I'm not rejecting the general point about the dangers of too much executive power; I'm rejecting your specific tack here, which suggests we could use some judicial authority to intervene. No can do: our only hope is to solve the issue at the ballot box, by turning out all of those legislative GOP toadies. Quit talking about the U.N. and ObamaCare and go hammer Vehle on local issues!
the number that the calls are coming from is 605-495-0704....which is a discontinued number and the Lauten-whatevers are not behind it...the Governor is per Second floor confession. They are spoofing...I called Chris Nelson and he said whoever is doing it is breaking a federal FCC law...the 2010 Honesty in caller ID act. If you google the phone number it comes from somepalce in Artesian or Forrestburg, SD. Firs nicely in SD being one of the most corrupt states in the nation
IT IS the Governor's office and surprisingly, ALL of those the Governor threw under the bus met with Stace Nelson when he cacused ahead of the Republican caucus after Rausch threw him out of regular causus. Most of those NOT GETTING Endorsement from Governor lean RIGHT with PROLIFE and family values...ethics voters.